Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs LAA
Score 86.5 | Lineup K 7.16
|
5.72 | 6.41 | +0.69 | 83.7% | 71.9% | 58.4% | 44.8% | 32.6% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs BOS
Score 65.9 | Lineup K 5.96
|
5.77 | 5.91 | +0.14 | 79.6% | 66.2% | 51.7% | 38.0% | 26.4% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs TB
Score 60.1 | Lineup K 5.29
|
6.25 | 5.90 | -0.35 | 79.5% | 66.1% | 51.5% | 37.9% | 26.3% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs DET
Score 47.9 | Lineup K 5.37
|
5.93 | 5.78 | -0.15 | 78.4% | 64.6% | 49.9% | 36.2% | 24.8% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs ATH
Score 73.1 | Lineup K 6.21
|
5.12 | 5.60 | +0.48 | 76.6% | 62.2% | 47.3% | 33.7% | 22.7% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs NYY
Score 57.3 | Lineup K 6.19
|
5.10 | 5.51 | +0.41 | 75.7% | 61.0% | 46.0% | 32.5% | 21.6% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs ATL
Score 47.9 | Lineup K 5.64
|
5.32 | 5.42 | +0.10 | 74.7% | 59.8% | 44.6% | 31.2% | 20.6% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs CIN
Score 45.5 | Lineup K 5.32
|
4.76 | 4.94 | +0.18 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs KC
Score 47.7 | Lineup K 5.10
|
4.83 | 4.92 | +0.09 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs MIL
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 5.00
|
4.33 | 4.54 | +0.21 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CWS
Score 56.2 | Lineup K 4.97
|
3.98 | 4.35 | +0.37 | 60.4% | 43.1% | 28.3% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs HOU
Score 38.8 | Lineup K 4.64
|
4.09 | 4.24 | +0.15 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PHI
Score 43.3 | Lineup K 4.66
|
4.03 | 4.23 | +0.20 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 26.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIA
Score 37.1 | Lineup K 4.74
|
3.70 | 4.02 | +0.32 | 54.9% | 37.4% | 23.4% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
Tanner Gordon
Probable | projected
|
COL vs STL
Score 34.5 | Lineup K 3.96
|
4.00 | 3.94 | -0.06 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Jackson Jobe
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CLE
Score 27.6 | Lineup K 4.11
|
3.53 | 3.70 | +0.17 | 49.1% | 31.8% | 18.8% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.