Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
STL 1, SF 2. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
STL 1, SF 2
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
1 – 2final score
3total runs
52% → 100%SF win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
Mathews, Quinn vs Roupp, Landen · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
STL 47.6%SF 52.4%
3.85 – 3.81mean score
7.66mean total
57%NRFI
10.9%extra innings
6.34 / 5.99starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
STL (gold) vs SF (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
STL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torres, Bryan | 4.838 | 1.077 | 0.077 | 1.53 | 0.473 | 1.213 | 0.391 |
| Herrera, Iván | 4.73 | 1.044 | 0.073 | 1.488 | 0.555 | 1.106 | 0.397 |
| Burleson, Alec | 4.617 | 1.178 | 0.096 | 1.765 | 0.429 | 1.037 | 0.507 |
| Walker, Jordan | 4.507 | 1.129 | 0.116 | 1.806 | 0.397 | 1.357 | 0.575 |
| Bernal, Leo | 4.405 | 0.974 | 0.072 | 1.42 | 0.469 | 1.199 | 0.485 |
| Gorman, Nolan | 4.299 | 0.728 | 0.079 | 1.099 | 0.461 | 1.491 | 0.399 |
| Saggese, Thomas | 4.181 | 0.966 | 0.085 | 1.467 | 0.364 | 1.258 | 0.416 |
| Winn, Masyn | 4.074 | 0.856 | 0.032 | 1.108 | 0.424 | 1.09 | 0.298 |
| Church, Nathan | 3.957 | 0.904 | 0.062 | 1.286 | 0.272 | 0.908 | 0.386 |
Projected batting lines
SF per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cox, Jonah | 4.609 | 1.286 | 0.086 | 1.915 | 0.351 | 1.579 | 0.451 |
| Devers, Rafael | 4.499 | 1.034 | 0.133 | 1.755 | 0.506 | 1.314 | 0.528 |
| Eldridge, Bryce | 4.387 | 1.045 | 0.086 | 1.556 | 0.546 | 1.31 | 0.486 |
| Basabe, Osleivis | 4.285 | 0.987 | 0.089 | 1.491 | 0.273 | 1.047 | 0.491 |
| Hill, Turner | 4.177 | 1.036 | 0.043 | 1.392 | 0.455 | 0.9 | 0.412 |
| Knizner, Andrew | 4.081 | 0.866 | 0.068 | 1.23 | 0.352 | 1.049 | 0.394 |
| Whitcomb, Shay | 3.973 | 0.849 | 0.079 | 1.284 | 0.286 | 1.159 | 0.387 |
| McCray, Grant | 3.848 | 0.757 | 0.066 | 1.13 | 0.432 | 1.065 | 0.329 |
| Koss, Christian | 3.729 | 0.823 | 0.052 | 1.155 | 0.258 | 1.02 | 0.33 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Torres, Bryan vs Roupp, Landen: K
Herrera, Iván vs Roupp, Landen: OUT GB
Burleson, Alec vs Roupp, Landen: 1B
Walker, Jordan vs Roupp, Landen: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Cox, Jonah vs Mathews, Quinn: 1B
Devers, Rafael vs Mathews, Quinn: HR +2 runs (0-2)
Eldridge, Bryce vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
Basabe, Osleivis vs Mathews, Quinn: 1B
Hill, Turner vs Mathews, Quinn: BB
Knizner, Andrew vs Mathews, Quinn: BB
Whitcomb, Shay vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR +1 run (0-3)
McCray, Grant vs Mathews, Quinn: K
— Top 2 —
Bernal, Leo vs Roupp, Landen: 1B
Gorman, Nolan vs Roupp, Landen: OUT AIR
Saggese, Thomas vs Roupp, Landen: 2B +1 run (1-3)
Winn, Masyn vs Roupp, Landen: OUT AIR
Church, Nathan vs Roupp, Landen: 1B +1 run (2-3)
Torres, Bryan vs Roupp, Landen: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
Koss, Christian vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
Cox, Jonah vs Mathews, Quinn: K
Devers, Rafael vs Mathews, Quinn: BB
Eldridge, Bryce vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Herrera, Iván vs Roupp, Landen: OUT AIR
Burleson, Alec vs Roupp, Landen: 2B
Walker, Jordan vs Roupp, Landen: K
Bernal, Leo vs Roupp, Landen: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Basabe, Osleivis vs Mathews, Quinn: BB
Hill, Turner vs Mathews, Quinn: K
Knizner, Andrew vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
Whitcomb, Shay vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Gorman, Nolan vs Roupp, Landen: K
Saggese, Thomas vs Roupp, Landen: K
Winn, Masyn vs Roupp, Landen: BB
Church, Nathan vs Roupp, Landen: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
McCray, Grant vs Mathews, Quinn: HR +1 run (2-4)
Koss, Christian vs Mathews, Quinn: 1B
Cox, Jonah vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
Devers, Rafael vs Mathews, Quinn: K
Eldridge, Bryce vs Mathews, Quinn: K
— Top 5 —
Torres, Bryan vs Roupp, Landen: OUT AIR
Herrera, Iván vs Roupp, Landen: OUT GB
Burleson, Alec vs Roupp, Landen: 1B
Walker, Jordan vs Roupp, Landen: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Basabe, Osleivis vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
Hill, Turner vs Fernandez, Ryan: K
Knizner, Andrew vs Fernandez, Ryan: K
— Top 6 —
Bernal, Leo vs Roupp, Landen: K
Gorman, Nolan vs Roupp, Landen: BB
Saggese, Thomas vs Kilian, Caleb: OUT AIR
Winn, Masyn vs Kilian, Caleb: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Whitcomb, Shay vs Fernandez, Ryan: OUT GB
McCray, Grant vs Fernandez, Ryan: OUT AIR
Koss, Christian vs Fernandez, Ryan: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Church, Nathan vs Kilian, Caleb: OUT GB
Torres, Bryan vs Kilian, Caleb: K
Herrera, Iván vs Smith, Dylan: 2B
Burleson, Alec vs Smith, Dylan: 2B +1 run (3-4)
Walker, Jordan vs Smith, Dylan: OUT AIR
— Bottom 7 —
Cox, Jonah vs Romero, JoJo: K
Devers, Rafael vs Romero, JoJo: 2B
Eldridge, Bryce vs Romero, JoJo: K
Basabe, Osleivis vs Romero, JoJo: BB
Hill, Turner vs O'Brien, Riley: OUT GB
— Top 8 —
Bernal, Leo vs Smith, Dylan: BB
Gorman, Nolan vs Smith, Dylan: K
Saggese, Thomas vs Miller, Erik: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Knizner, Andrew vs O'Brien, Riley: 1B
Whitcomb, Shay vs O'Brien, Riley: K
McCray, Grant vs O'Brien, Riley: 1B
Koss, Christian vs O'Brien, Riley: OUT AIR
Cox, Jonah vs O'Brien, Riley: K
— Top 9 —
Winn, Masyn vs Miller, Erik: K
Church, Nathan vs Miller, Erik: OUT GB
Torres, Bryan vs Miller, Erik: OUT GB