Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
NYM 7, MIA 5. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
NYM 7, MIA 5
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
7 – 5final score
12total runs
56% → 0%MIA win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
Manaea, Sean vs Alcantara, Sandy · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
NYM 43.5%MIA 56.5%
3.9 – 4.39mean score
8.29mean total
53%NRFI
10.2%extra innings
5.42 / 4.83starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
NYM (gold) vs MIA (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
NYM per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindor, Francisco | 4.762 | 1.04 | 0.134 | 1.691 | 0.383 | 1.048 | 0.413 |
| Soto, Juan | 4.649 | 1.082 | 0.185 | 1.926 | 0.57 | 0.806 | 0.521 |
| Bichette, Bo | 4.549 | 1.158 | 0.092 | 1.679 | 0.305 | 0.913 | 0.446 |
| Benge, Carson | 4.447 | 1.173 | 0.092 | 1.705 | 0.3 | 1.062 | 0.493 |
| Young, Jared | 4.348 | 1.066 | 0.084 | 1.567 | 0.273 | 0.974 | 0.474 |
| Semien, Marcus | 4.238 | 0.888 | 0.101 | 1.381 | 0.305 | 0.992 | 0.423 |
| Ewing, A.J. | 4.124 | 0.952 | 0.066 | 1.354 | 0.324 | 1.149 | 0.365 |
| Baty, Brett | 4.011 | 0.848 | 0.066 | 1.216 | 0.312 | 1.18 | 0.355 |
| Alvarez, Francisco | 3.893 | 0.841 | 0.11 | 1.36 | 0.325 | 1.234 | 0.412 |
Projected batting lines
MIA per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernández, Heriberto | 4.632 | 1.094 | 0.234 | 2.084 | 0.43 | 1.429 | 0.554 |
| Lopez, Otto | 4.511 | 1.4 | 0.094 | 2.005 | 0.264 | 0.774 | 0.467 |
| Ramírez, Agustín | 4.404 | 1.016 | 0.086 | 1.461 | 0.431 | 1.193 | 0.42 |
| Sanoja, Javier | 4.303 | 1.293 | 0.096 | 1.896 | 0.257 | 0.577 | 0.588 |
| Ruiz, Esteury | 4.2 | 0.992 | 0.123 | 1.593 | 0.367 | 1.42 | 0.535 |
| De Los Santos, Deyvison | 4.097 | 1.055 | 0.128 | 1.684 | 0.296 | 1.098 | 0.561 |
| Marsee, Jakob | 3.994 | 0.852 | 0.073 | 1.238 | 0.424 | 1.021 | 0.391 |
| Serna, Jared | 3.878 | 0.952 | 0.11 | 1.488 | 0.325 | 0.952 | 0.47 |
| Navarreto, Brian | 3.758 | 0.795 | 0.109 | 1.263 | 0.25 | 1.124 | 0.401 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Lindor, Francisco vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT AIR
Soto, Juan vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT AIR
Bichette, Bo vs Alcantara, Sandy: 1B
Benge, Carson vs Alcantara, Sandy: 1B
Young, Jared vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Hernández, Heriberto vs Manaea, Sean: K
Lopez, Otto vs Manaea, Sean: 2B
Ramírez, Agustín vs Manaea, Sean: HR +2 runs (0-2)
Sanoja, Javier vs Manaea, Sean: OUT AIR
Ruiz, Esteury vs Manaea, Sean: K
— Top 2 —
Semien, Marcus vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT AIR
Ewing, A.J. vs Alcantara, Sandy: K
Baty, Brett vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Manaea, Sean: 1B
Marsee, Jakob vs Manaea, Sean: OUT GB
Serna, Jared vs Manaea, Sean: 2B
Navarreto, Brian vs Manaea, Sean: OUT GB
Hernández, Heriberto vs Manaea, Sean: 1B +2 runs (0-4)
Lopez, Otto vs Manaea, Sean: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Alvarez, Francisco vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT GB
Lindor, Francisco vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT AIR
Soto, Juan vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Ramírez, Agustín vs Manaea, Sean: OUT AIR
Sanoja, Javier vs Manaea, Sean: OUT AIR
Ruiz, Esteury vs Manaea, Sean: 1B
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Manaea, Sean: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Bichette, Bo vs Alcantara, Sandy: 1B
Benge, Carson vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT AIR
Young, Jared vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT GB
Semien, Marcus vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Marsee, Jakob vs Manaea, Sean: 1B
Serna, Jared vs Manaea, Sean: 1B
Navarreto, Brian vs Manaea, Sean: 1B +1 run (0-5)
Hernández, Heriberto vs Edwards Jr., Carl: K
Lopez, Otto vs Edwards Jr., Carl: K
Ramírez, Agustín vs Edwards Jr., Carl: K
— Top 5 —
Ewing, A.J. vs Alcantara, Sandy: 1B
Baty, Brett vs Alcantara, Sandy: 1B
Alvarez, Francisco vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT GB
Lindor, Francisco vs Alcantara, Sandy: BB
Soto, Juan vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT AIR
Bichette, Bo vs Alcantara, Sandy: 1B +2 runs (2-5)
Benge, Carson vs Alcantara, Sandy: K
— Bottom 5 —
Sanoja, Javier vs Edwards Jr., Carl: OUT GB
Ruiz, Esteury vs Edwards Jr., Carl: K
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Núñez, Dedniel: K
— Top 6 —
Young, Jared vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT GB
Semien, Marcus vs Alcantara, Sandy: OUT AIR
Ewing, A.J. vs Nardi, Andrew: 2B
Baty, Brett vs Nardi, Andrew: K
— Bottom 6 —
Marsee, Jakob vs Núñez, Dedniel: OUT GB
Serna, Jared vs Núñez, Dedniel: OUT AIR
Navarreto, Brian vs Núñez, Dedniel: 1B
Hernández, Heriberto vs Núñez, Dedniel: 1B
Lopez, Otto vs Núñez, Dedniel: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Alvarez, Francisco vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Lindor, Francisco vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT GB
Soto, Juan vs Fairbanks, Pete: OUT AIR
— Bottom 7 —
Ramírez, Agustín vs Duarte, Daniel: OUT GB
Sanoja, Javier vs Duarte, Daniel: 1B
Ruiz, Esteury vs Duarte, Daniel: OUT GB
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Duarte, Daniel: OUT GB
— Top 8 —
Bichette, Bo vs Fairbanks, Pete: BB
Benge, Carson vs Fairbanks, Pete: K
Young, Jared vs Fairbanks, Pete: K
Semien, Marcus vs Bender, Anthony: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Marsee, Jakob vs Duarte, Daniel: OUT AIR
Serna, Jared vs Weaver, Luke: 2B
Navarreto, Brian vs Weaver, Luke: K
Hernández, Heriberto vs Weaver, Luke: 1B +1 run (2-6)
Lopez, Otto vs Weaver, Luke: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Ewing, A.J. vs Bender, Anthony: K
Baty, Brett vs Bender, Anthony: K
Alvarez, Francisco vs Bender, Anthony: K