Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-07-22

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Standard Confidence View Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-07-22

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 1

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-07-23 2026-07-21 →

Lane Health 2026-07-28

Palantir 11634 props Brier 0.123 ECE 0.011 14d stable

Fangorn 11634 props Brier 0.123 ECE 0.010 14d stable

Valinor 6039 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Ramón Laureano

SD vs ATL | +555

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.7%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 7 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Research Compare Mode

Confidence display comparison

Hybrid confidence is the current blended view. Anchored confidence keeps RF as the decision engine while adjusting toward binary-event truth from the logistic classifier.

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Ramón Laureano

SD vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.7%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.9% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +555 26.0% 10.7% Strong Zone

BetMGM +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

DraftKings +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

Ben Rice

NYY vs PIT | vs Mitch Keller

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 19.6%

Market Gap 3.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 19.5% Adjusted from 19.6% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 19.6% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Mitch Keller, with batting 6 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +520 19.6% 3.4% Watch Zone

BetMGM +515 19.6% 3.3% Watch Zone

DraftKings +515 19.6% 3.3% Watch Zone

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 19.6%

Market Gap 1.9%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 20.3% Adjusted from 19.6% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 19.6% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +465 19.6% 1.9% Watch Zone

BetMGM +460 19.6% 1.7% Watch Zone

DraftKings +455 19.6% 1.6% Watch Zone

Elly De La Cruz

CIN vs SEA | vs Emerson Hancock

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 2.3%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.9% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Emerson Hancock, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +540 17.9% 2.3% Watch Zone

Select

Largest model-market HR gaps from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Ramón Laureano

SD vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.7%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.9% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +555 26.0% 10.7% Strong Zone

BetMGM +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

DraftKings +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

Miguel Andujar

SD vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 8.5%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.5% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.4% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 6 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +965 17.9% 8.5% Watch Zone

BetMGM +950 17.9% 8.4% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 1 Market Rows 3 Artifact

Ramón Laureano

SD vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.7%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.9% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +555 26.0% 10.7% Strong Zone

BetMGM +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

DraftKings +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.