Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-09-07

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Standard Confidence View Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-09-07

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 0

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-09-08 2026-09-06 →

Lane Health 2026-09-11

Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable

Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable

Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

No qualifying play

No Fangorn play cleared the parlay-probability filter today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 6 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Research Compare Mode

Confidence display comparison

Hybrid confidence is the current blended view. Anchored confidence keeps RF as the decision engine while adjusting toward binary-event truth from the logistic classifier.

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Cj Abrams

WSH vs SD | vs Nick Pivetta

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 3.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.5% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Nick Pivetta, with batting 1 and a pitcher-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +590 17.9% 3.4% Watch Zone

BetMGM +585 17.9% 3.3% Watch Zone

DraftKings +585 17.9% 3.3% Watch Zone

Elly De La Cruz

CIN vs LAD | vs Emmet Sheehan

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 2.3%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.5% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Emmet Sheehan, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +540 17.9% 2.3% Watch Zone

BetMGM +535 17.9% 2.2% Watch Zone

DraftKings +530 17.9% 2.0% Watch Zone

Bo Bichette

NYM vs MIA | vs Eury Pérez

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 5.8%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.9% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Eury Pérez, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +725 17.9% 5.8% Watch Zone

BetMGM +720 17.9% 5.7% Watch Zone

FanDuel +720 17.9% 5.7% Watch Zone

Yoán Moncada

LAA vs BOS | vs Brayan Bello

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 4.7%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.8% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Brayan Bello, with batting 6 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +655 17.9% 4.7% Watch Zone

Select

Largest model-market HR gaps from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ vs KC | vs Noah Cameron

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 8.0%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 16.5% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.2% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Noah Cameron, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +990 17.2% 8.0% Watch Zone

BetMGM +975 17.2% 7.9% Watch Zone

FanDuel +965 17.2% 7.8% Watch Zone

Brandon Marsh

PHI vs ATL | vs Grant Holmes

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 6.6%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.0% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Grant Holmes, with batting 6 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +780 17.9% 6.6% Watch Zone

FanDuel +770 17.9% 6.4% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 0 Artifact

No conviction Fangorn picks were saved for this slate.

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.