Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

WSH at SD

Cornelio, Riley vs Mize, Casey · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean WSH or SD?

Mithrandir leans SD over WSH.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

58.9% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs WSH 4.0 · SD 4.6 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.6 · Market 8.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line WSH 1.5 · SD -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 50.5% · YRFI 49.5% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 12 Available in 12 player rows

Fangorn 4 Available in 4 player rows

Valinor 4 Available in 4 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

12 matched rows

Total bases · WSH vs SD Daylen Lile Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.7% F-- V--

Model 36.7% Market 20.6% Model-market gap +16.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs SD Cj Abrams Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.0% F-- V--

Model 37.0% Market 21.3% Model-market gap +15.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs SD Luis García Jr. Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.6% F-- V--

Model 37.6% Market 22.2% Model-market gap +15.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs SD James Wood Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.9% F-- V--

Model 37.9% Market 22.7% Model-market gap +15.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs SD Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.5% F-- V--

Model 42.5% Market 29.9% Model-market gap +12.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs SD José Tena Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.0% F-- V--

Model 43.0% Market 30.8% Model-market gap +12.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs SD Dylan Crews Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.4% F-- V--

Model 50.4% Market 40.8% Model-market gap +9.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs SD Cj Abrams Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P14.9% F13.4% V12.7%

Model 20.4% Market 13.9% Model-market gap +6.5 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs SD Luis García Jr. Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.6% F12.6% V11.6%

Model 18.2% Market 12.4% Model-market gap +5.8 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs SD Daylen Lile Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P14.1% F10.7% V9.8%

Model 16.9% Market 11.1% Model-market gap +5.8 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs SD Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P9.2% F12.0% V8.8%

Model 14.1% Market 9.8% Model-market gap +4.3 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · SD vs WSH Casey Mize Under 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P53.7% F-- V51.6%

Model 53.7% Market -- Provisional model gap No priced gap

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.