Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
WSH 4, SD 5. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
WSH 4, SD 5
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
4 – 5final score
9total runs
59% → 100%SD win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Cornelio, Riley vs Mize, Casey · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
WSH 41.1%SD 58.9%
4.31 – 5.04mean score
9.35mean total
51%NRFI
9.1%extra innings
1.98 / 6.04starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
WSH (gold) vs SD (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
WSH per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood, James | 4.766 | 1.108 | 0.235 | 2.134 | 0.631 | 1.528 | 0.587 |
| Ortiz, Abimelec | 4.661 | 1.002 | 0.165 | 1.703 | 0.3 | 1.232 | 0.505 |
| Crews, Dylan | 4.549 | 0.944 | 0.117 | 1.502 | 0.296 | 1.305 | 0.405 |
| Abrams, CJ | 4.436 | 1.081 | 0.194 | 1.954 | 0.348 | 1.204 | 0.597 |
| House, Brady | 4.333 | 1.018 | 0.133 | 1.632 | 0.305 | 1.242 | 0.488 |
| Lile, Daylen | 4.223 | 0.994 | 0.13 | 1.631 | 0.27 | 0.956 | 0.464 |
| Morales, Yohandy | 4.11 | 1.037 | 0.165 | 1.806 | 0.313 | 1.325 | 0.535 |
| Vivas, Jorbit | 3.996 | 0.849 | 0.054 | 1.153 | 0.38 | 0.748 | 0.317 |
| Ford, Harry | 3.884 | 0.798 | 0.12 | 1.328 | 0.396 | 1.042 | 0.411 |
Projected batting lines
SD per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatis Jr., Fernando | 4.747 | 1.334 | 0.172 | 2.156 | 0.485 | 1.078 | 0.59 |
| Cronenworth, Jake | 4.627 | 1.035 | 0.09 | 1.468 | 0.478 | 1.219 | 0.438 |
| Machado, Manny | 4.512 | 1.006 | 0.217 | 1.869 | 0.567 | 1.115 | 0.654 |
| France, Ty | 4.4 | 1.237 | 0.22 | 2.193 | 0.406 | 1.089 | 0.748 |
| Merrill, Jackson | 4.299 | 1.031 | 0.169 | 1.769 | 0.339 | 1.157 | 0.591 |
| Campusano, Luis | 4.194 | 1.079 | 0.163 | 1.804 | 0.555 | 1.097 | 0.59 |
| Harris, Dustin | 4.088 | 1.107 | 0.088 | 1.576 | 0.389 | 0.875 | 0.498 |
| Bogaerts, Xander | 3.987 | 0.903 | 0.113 | 1.387 | 0.474 | 0.864 | 0.495 |
| Fermin, Freddy | 3.871 | 0.884 | 0.091 | 1.304 | 0.317 | 0.927 | 0.435 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Wood, James vs Mize, Casey: OUT AIR
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Mize, Casey: OUT AIR
Crews, Dylan vs Mize, Casey: 1B
Abrams, CJ vs Mize, Casey: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Cornelio, Riley: K
Cronenworth, Jake vs Cornelio, Riley: BB
Machado, Manny vs Cornelio, Riley: OUT AIR
France, Ty vs Cornelio, Riley: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
House, Brady vs Mize, Casey: K
Lile, Daylen vs Mize, Casey: OUT AIR
Morales, Yohandy vs Mize, Casey: 1B
Vivas, Jorbit vs Mize, Casey: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
Merrill, Jackson vs Cornelio, Riley: BB
Campusano, Luis vs Cornelio, Riley: 1B
Harris, Dustin vs Cornelio, Riley: OUT GB
Bogaerts, Xander vs Williams, Trevor: K
Fermin, Freddy vs Williams, Trevor: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Ford, Harry vs Mize, Casey: OUT GB
Wood, James vs Mize, Casey: OUT AIR
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Mize, Casey: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Williams, Trevor: OUT AIR
Cronenworth, Jake vs Williams, Trevor: OUT AIR
Machado, Manny vs Williams, Trevor: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Crews, Dylan vs Mize, Casey: OUT AIR
Abrams, CJ vs Mize, Casey: HR +1 run (1-0)
House, Brady vs Mize, Casey: OUT AIR
Lile, Daylen vs Mize, Casey: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
France, Ty vs Williams, Trevor: OUT AIR
Merrill, Jackson vs Parker, Mitchell: 1B
Campusano, Luis vs Parker, Mitchell: 1B
Harris, Dustin vs Parker, Mitchell: 1B +1 run (1-1)
Bogaerts, Xander vs Parker, Mitchell: BB
Fermin, Freddy vs Ribalta, Orlando: K
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Ribalta, Orlando: 1B +1 run (1-2)
Cronenworth, Jake vs Ribalta, Orlando: 1B +1 run (1-3)
Machado, Manny vs Ribalta, Orlando: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Morales, Yohandy vs Mize, Casey: 1B
Vivas, Jorbit vs Mize, Casey: HR +2 runs (3-3)
Ford, Harry vs Mize, Casey: OUT AIR
Wood, James vs Mize, Casey: OUT AIR
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Mize, Casey: 1B
Crews, Dylan vs Mize, Casey: BB
Abrams, CJ vs Mize, Casey: K
— Bottom 5 —
France, Ty vs Ribalta, Orlando: OUT AIR
Merrill, Jackson vs Cosgrove, Tom: 2B
Campusano, Luis vs Cosgrove, Tom: K
Harris, Dustin vs Cosgrove, Tom: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
House, Brady vs Mize, Casey: OUT GB
Lile, Daylen vs Mize, Casey: OUT GB
Morales, Yohandy vs Brito, Jhony: K
— Bottom 6 —
Bogaerts, Xander vs Cosgrove, Tom: OUT GB
Fermin, Freddy vs Cosgrove, Tom: 1B
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Cosgrove, Tom: OUT GB
Cronenworth, Jake vs Schultz, Paxton: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Vivas, Jorbit vs Brito, Jhony: K
Ford, Harry vs Brito, Jhony: OUT AIR
Wood, James vs Brito, Jhony: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Machado, Manny vs Schultz, Paxton: BB
France, Ty vs Schultz, Paxton: K
Merrill, Jackson vs Schultz, Paxton: BB
Campusano, Luis vs Schultz, Paxton: K
Harris, Dustin vs Schultz, Paxton: BB
Bogaerts, Xander vs Henry, Cole: K
— Top 8 —
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Jacob, Alek: 1B
Crews, Dylan vs Jacob, Alek: OUT GB
Abrams, CJ vs Jacob, Alek: OUT AIR
House, Brady vs Jacob, Alek: BB
Lile, Daylen vs Matsui, Yuki: K
— Bottom 8 —
Fermin, Freddy vs Henry, Cole: 1B
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Henry, Cole: K
Cronenworth, Jake vs Henry, Cole: K
Machado, Manny vs Varland, Gus: 1B
France, Ty vs Varland, Gus: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Morales, Yohandy vs Matsui, Yuki: OUT AIR
Vivas, Jorbit vs Matsui, Yuki: OUT AIR
Ford, Harry vs Matsui, Yuki: OUT GB
— Bottom 9 —
Merrill, Jackson vs Varland, Gus: OUT AIR
Campusano, Luis vs Varland, Gus: BB
Harris, Dustin vs Varland, Gus: OUT GB
Bogaerts, Xander vs Varland, Gus: OUT AIR
— Top 10 —
Wood, James vs Matsui, Yuki: 1B
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Estrada, Jeremiah: OUT AIR
Crews, Dylan vs Estrada, Jeremiah: OUT AIR +1 run (4-3)
Abrams, CJ vs Estrada, Jeremiah: BB
House, Brady vs Estrada, Jeremiah: OUT GB
— Bottom 10 —
Fermin, Freddy vs Tolman, Erik: OUT AIR
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Tolman, Erik: K
Cronenworth, Jake vs Tolman, Erik: 1B +1 run (4-4)
Machado, Manny vs Tolman, Erik: 1B
France, Ty vs Tolman, Erik: OUT GB
— Top 11 —
Lile, Daylen vs Estrada, Jeremiah: OUT GB
Morales, Yohandy vs Estrada, Jeremiah: OUT AIR
Vivas, Jorbit vs Adam, Jason: K
— Bottom 11 —
Merrill, Jackson vs Tolman, Erik: OUT AIR
Campusano, Luis vs Cosgrove, Tom: OUT AIR
Harris, Dustin vs Cosgrove, Tom: OUT GB
— Top 12 —
Ford, Harry vs Adam, Jason: K
Wood, James vs Adam, Jason: OUT GB
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Adam, Jason: OUT GB
— Bottom 12 —
Bogaerts, Xander vs Cosgrove, Tom: K
Fermin, Freddy vs Cosgrove, Tom: OUT GB
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Cosgrove, Tom: 1B +1 run (4-5)