Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

CLE at MIN

Parker Messick vs Taj Bradley · 8:10 PM ET

Scheduled 8:10 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean CLE or MIN?

The run projection leans CLE over MIN.

Projected runs: CLE 4.5, MIN 4.3. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs CLE 4.5 · MIN 4.3 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.8 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line CLE -1.5 · MIN 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.0% · YRFI 51.0% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 11 Available in 11 player rows

Fangorn 4 Available in 4 player rows

Valinor 4 Available in 4 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

11 matched rows

Total bases · CLE vs MIN José Ramírez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.6% F-- V--

Model 35.6% Market 18.9% Model-market gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs MIN Steven Kwan Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.7% F-- V--

Model 39.7% Market 25.6% Model-market gap +14.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs MIN Bo Naylor Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P48.4% F-- V--

Model 48.4% Market 38.5% Model-market gap +9.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs MIN Daniel Schneemann Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P48.3% F-- V--

Model 48.3% Market 38.5% Model-market gap +9.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs MIN Angel Martínez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P49.5% F-- V--

Model 49.5% Market 40.0% Model-market gap +9.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs MIN Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.6% F-- V--

Model 52.6% Market 44.4% Model-market gap +8.2 pts

Open board

Home runs · CLE vs MIN Daniel Schneemann Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.7% F10.3% V9.7%

Model 18.0% Market 10.6% Model-market gap +7.4 pts

Open board

Home runs · CLE vs MIN Bo Naylor Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.6% F13.4% V12.6%

Model 19.4% Market 13.4% Model-market gap +6.1 pts

Open board

Home runs · CLE vs MIN Steven Kwan Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P10.0% F11.7% V10.5%

Model 13.9% Market 8.7% Model-market gap +5.2 pts

Open board

Home runs · CLE vs MIN José Ramírez Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P15.3% F13.4% V15.2%

Model 22.7% Market 19.4% Model-market gap +3.3 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · MIN vs CLE Taj Bradley Under 5.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.4% F-- V55.0%

Model 57.6% Market 55.3% Provisional model gap +2.3 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Cleveland win contract 52.5% Bid 52c · ask 53c

Minnesota win contract 47.5% Bid 47c · ask 48c

First inning run: Yes 44.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.