Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

TOR at ATH

Soriano, José vs Perkins, Jack · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean TOR or ATH?

Mithrandir leans TOR over ATH.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

59.8% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs TOR 4.7 · ATH 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.2 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line TOR -1.5 · ATH 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.2% · YRFI 51.8% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 4 Available in 4 player rows

Fangorn 0 No real output for this game

Valinor 0 No real output for this game

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

4 matched rows

Total bases · ATH vs TOR Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.3% F-- V--

Model 42.3% Market 29.9% Model-market gap +12.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATH vs TOR Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P45.9% F-- V--

Model 45.9% Market 35.1% Model-market gap +10.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATH vs TOR Zack Gelof Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.6% F-- V--

Model 52.6% Market 43.5% Model-market gap +9.1 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · TOR vs ATH José Soriano Over 5.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.0% F-- V49.2%

Model 47.0% Market -- Provisional model gap No priced gap

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.