Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
TOR 4, ATH 2. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
TOR 4, ATH 2
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
4 – 2final score
6total runs
40% → 0%ATH win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics
Soriano, José vs Perkins, Jack · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
TOR 59.8%ATH 40.2%
5.0 – 3.84mean score
8.83mean total
56%NRFI
10.2%extra innings
5.85 / 5.38starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
TOR (gold) vs ATH (cyan)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
TOR per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bateman, Brett | 5.0 | 1.415 | 0.036 | 1.732 | 0.596 | 1.28 | 0.372 |
| Lukes, Nathan | 4.893 | 1.38 | 0.142 | 2.056 | 0.374 | 0.998 | 0.651 |
| Guerrero Jr., Vladimir | 4.776 | 1.225 | 0.094 | 1.707 | 0.484 | 0.857 | 0.546 |
| Kirk, Alejandro | 4.665 | 1.232 | 0.186 | 2.026 | 0.497 | 0.923 | 0.749 |
| Smith, Josh | 4.556 | 0.993 | 0.124 | 1.547 | 0.533 | 1.226 | 0.542 |
| Okamoto, Kazuma | 4.453 | 1.007 | 0.215 | 1.899 | 0.442 | 1.511 | 0.691 |
| Giménez, Andrés | 4.344 | 1.103 | 0.102 | 1.627 | 0.244 | 1.038 | 0.488 |
| Sánchez, Jesús | 4.231 | 1.082 | 0.127 | 1.701 | 0.32 | 1.183 | 0.527 |
| Clement, Ernie | 4.118 | 1.156 | 0.079 | 1.609 | 0.208 | 0.623 | 0.428 |
Projected batting lines
ATH per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolte, Henry | 4.653 | 1.194 | 0.086 | 1.705 | 0.439 | 1.516 | 0.41 |
| McNeil, Jeff | 4.543 | 1.159 | 0.065 | 1.554 | 0.346 | 0.766 | 0.434 |
| Gelof, Zack | 4.437 | 1.044 | 0.133 | 1.726 | 0.395 | 1.334 | 0.531 |
| Butler, Lawrence | 4.328 | 0.862 | 0.097 | 1.334 | 0.515 | 1.401 | 0.44 |
| Cortes, Carlos | 4.225 | 0.983 | 0.079 | 1.416 | 0.381 | 0.955 | 0.44 |
| White, Tommy | 4.126 | 0.979 | 0.063 | 1.339 | 0.297 | 0.982 | 0.379 |
| Walton, Donovan | 4.017 | 0.952 | 0.076 | 1.396 | 0.45 | 0.91 | 0.397 |
| Williams, Alika | 3.909 | 0.923 | 0.065 | 1.326 | 0.277 | 1.103 | 0.405 |
| Heim, Jonah | 3.78 | 0.779 | 0.099 | 1.25 | 0.327 | 0.937 | 0.404 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Bateman, Brett vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Lukes, Nathan vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Kirk, Alejandro vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Bolte, Henry vs Soriano, José: OUT AIR
McNeil, Jeff vs Soriano, José: OUT AIR
Gelof, Zack vs Soriano, José: 1B
Butler, Lawrence vs Soriano, José: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Smith, Josh vs Perkins, Jack: K
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Perkins, Jack: 2B
Giménez, Andrés vs Perkins, Jack: K
Sánchez, Jesús vs Perkins, Jack: K
— Bottom 2 —
Cortes, Carlos vs Soriano, José: 1B
White, Tommy vs Soriano, José: OUT AIR
Walton, Donovan vs Soriano, José: 2B
Williams, Alika vs Soriano, José: OUT GB
Heim, Jonah vs Soriano, José: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Clement, Ernie vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Bateman, Brett vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Lukes, Nathan vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Perkins, Jack: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Bolte, Henry vs Soriano, José: OUT AIR
McNeil, Jeff vs Soriano, José: OUT GB
Gelof, Zack vs Soriano, José: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Kirk, Alejandro vs Perkins, Jack: OUT GB
Smith, Josh vs Perkins, Jack: BB
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Giménez, Andrés vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Butler, Lawrence vs Soriano, José: K
Cortes, Carlos vs Soriano, José: K
White, Tommy vs Soriano, José: K
— Top 5 —
Sánchez, Jesús vs Perkins, Jack: OUT GB
Clement, Ernie vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Bateman, Brett vs Perkins, Jack: K
— Bottom 5 —
Walton, Donovan vs Soriano, José: OUT AIR
Williams, Alika vs Soriano, José: 1B
Heim, Jonah vs Soriano, José: K
Bolte, Henry vs Soriano, José: BB
McNeil, Jeff vs Soriano, José: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Lukes, Nathan vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Perkins, Jack: BB
Kirk, Alejandro vs Perkins, Jack: HR +2 runs (2-0)
Smith, Josh vs Perkins, Jack: K
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Harris, Hogan: K
— Bottom 6 —
Gelof, Zack vs Soriano, José: K
Butler, Lawrence vs Soriano, José: K
Cortes, Carlos vs Soriano, José: 1B
White, Tommy vs Soriano, José: 1B
Walton, Donovan vs Mantiply, Joe: BB
Williams, Alika vs Mantiply, Joe: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Giménez, Andrés vs Harris, Hogan: K
Sánchez, Jesús vs Harris, Hogan: OUT GB
Clement, Ernie vs Harris, Hogan: 1B
Bateman, Brett vs Harris, Hogan: K
— Bottom 7 —
Heim, Jonah vs Mantiply, Joe: HR +1 run (2-1)
Bolte, Henry vs Mantiply, Joe: OUT AIR
McNeil, Jeff vs Mantiply, Joe: 1B
Gelof, Zack vs Mantiply, Joe: OUT GB
Butler, Lawrence vs Little, Brendon: K
— Top 8 —
Lukes, Nathan vs Alvarado, Elvis: OUT AIR
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Alvarado, Elvis: OUT AIR
Kirk, Alejandro vs Alvarado, Elvis: BB
Smith, Josh vs Alvarado, Elvis: 1B
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Alvarado, Elvis: K
— Bottom 8 —
Cortes, Carlos vs Little, Brendon: OUT GB
White, Tommy vs Little, Brendon: 1B
Walton, Donovan vs Little, Brendon: 1B
Williams, Alika vs Hoffman, Jeff: 1B +1 run (2-2)
Heim, Jonah vs Hoffman, Jeff: K
Bolte, Henry vs Hoffman, Jeff: K
— Top 9 —
Giménez, Andrés vs Leiter Jr., Mark: 1B
Sánchez, Jesús vs Leiter Jr., Mark: HR +2 runs (4-2)
Clement, Ernie vs Leiter Jr., Mark: 1B
Bateman, Brett vs Leiter Jr., Mark: OUT AIR
Lukes, Nathan vs Leiter Jr., Mark: OUT GB
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Leiter Jr., Mark: HR +2 runs (6-2)
Kirk, Alejandro vs Sterner, Justin: OUT AIR
— Bottom 9 —
McNeil, Jeff vs Hoffman, Jeff: 1B
Gelof, Zack vs Macko, Adam: OUT AIR
Butler, Lawrence vs Macko, Adam: BB
Cortes, Carlos vs Macko, Adam: OUT AIR
White, Tommy vs Macko, Adam: OUT AIR