Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2025-09-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
72
Matched
216
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2025-09-04 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 5
26.0%Fangorn 18.8%market +7.1pp
P 24.8
F 26.0
V 19.5
6.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 1
26.0%Fangorn 19.4%market +6.5pp
P 25.8
F 26.0
V 19.5
6.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
26.0%Fangorn 20.9%market +5.1pp
P 27.6
F 26.0
V 19.5
8.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 2
26.0%Fangorn 21.1%market +4.9pp
P 25.3
F 26.0
V 19.5
6.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 355 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 6
14.2%Fangorn 11.9%market +2.3pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 16.3%market +1.6pp
P 20.1
F 17.9
V 13.5
6.6pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 7
15.7%Fangorn 14.3%market +1.4pp
P 18.0
F 15.7
V 11.8
6.2pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 6
17.9%Fangorn 16.7%market +1.2pp
P 21.9
F 17.9
V 13.5
8.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 18.9%market -1.0pp
P 21.4
F 17.9
V 13.5
7.9pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 19.8%market -1.9pp
P 23.3
F 17.9
V 13.5
9.8pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
26.0%Fangorn 24.1%market +1.9pp
P 24.7
F 26.0
V 19.5
6.5pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 300 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 4
26.0%Fangorn 24.3%market +1.6pp
P 26.9
F 26.0
V 19.5
7.4pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 2
31.1%Fangorn 29.6%market +1.5pp
P 31.5
F 31.1
V 23.4
8.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 225 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
17.2%Fangorn 16.0%market +1.2pp
P 18.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
5.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 13.0%market +0.4pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
16
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 5
11.4%Fangorn 11.8%market -0.4pp
P 12.3
F 11.4
V 8.6
3.7pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 18.5%market -0.6pp
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 13.5
7.5pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 7
13.4%Fangorn 14.0%market -0.6pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 7
9.1%Fangorn 9.8%market -0.7pp
P 8.8
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 920 avg 3 books
20
Kyle Teel CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
21 Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 7
9.1%Fangorn 9.9%market -0.8pp
P 8.4
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.3pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 910 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 14.2%market -0.8pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 15.0%market -0.8pp
P 15.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 14.3%market -0.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 14.3%market -0.9pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.6pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 3
26.0%Fangorn 27.0%market -1.1pp
P 28.0
F 26.0
V 19.5
8.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
27 Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
11.1%Fangorn 12.2%market -1.1pp
P 11.3
F 11.1
V 8.4
2.9pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 7
13.4%Fangorn 14.5%market -1.1pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 6
11.4%Fangorn 12.7%market -1.2pp
P 12.1
F 11.4
V 8.6
3.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 9
13.4%Fangorn 14.6%market -1.2pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
31 Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 6
11.1%Fangorn 12.5%market -1.4pp
P 11.5
F 11.1
V 8.4
3.1pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 2
14.2%Fangorn 15.6%market -1.4pp
P 14.4
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 6
9.1%Fangorn 10.5%market -1.4pp
P 9.1
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.3pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 850 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 2
9.1%Fangorn 10.5%market -1.4pp
P 9.6
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 850 avg 3 books
35
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 15.8%market -1.5pp
P 14.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.9pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
36 Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 15.0%market -1.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
37
Joey Bart PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 7
9.1%Fangorn 10.8%market -1.7pp
P 8.6
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 825 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 1
9.1%Fangorn 10.8%market -1.7pp
P 8.9
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.3pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 825 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 7
13.4%Fangorn 15.2%market -1.8pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 1
13.6%Fangorn 15.4%market -1.8pp
P 14.1
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.9pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 4
17.2%Fangorn 19.1%market -1.8pp
P 18.5
F 17.2
V 12.9
5.6pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 16.1%market -1.9pp
P 14.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.2pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 6
11.1%Fangorn 13.2%market -2.0pp
P 11.4
F 11.1
V 8.4
3.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 660 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
11.1%Fangorn 13.3%market -2.2pp
P 11.5
F 11.1
V 8.4
3.1pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 15.6%market -2.3pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 3
14.2%Fangorn 16.5%market -2.3pp
P 15.9
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.2pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 7
15.5%Fangorn 17.9%market -2.4pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 11.7
5.0pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 3
15.7%Fangorn 18.2%market -2.4pp
P 17.4
F 15.7
V 11.8
5.6pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 19.8%market -2.6pp
P 18.9
F 17.2
V 12.9
6.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
50
Ben Rice NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 6
15.5%Fangorn 18.2%market -2.7pp
P 17.2
F 15.5
V 11.7
5.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 9
11.1%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.7pp
P 10.6
F 11.1
V 8.3
2.7pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
52
David Fry CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.7pp
P 15.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 6
10.3%Fangorn 13.3%market -3.0pp
P 10.2
F 10.3
V 7.8
2.6pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.0pp
P 15.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.2pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 4
15.7%Fangorn 18.9%market -3.1pp
P 17.4
F 15.7
V 11.8
5.6pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
4.7%Fangorn 8.1%market -3.4pp
P 7.0
F 4.7
V 3.5
3.5pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1135 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 3
11.1%Fangorn 14.6%market -3.5pp
P 11.3
F 11.1
V 8.4
2.9pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 2
14.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -3.5pp
P 16.2
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 3
14.2%Fangorn 17.9%market -3.6pp
P 16.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.9pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 7
11.1%Fangorn 14.9%market -3.8pp
P 11.6
F 11.1
V 8.4
3.2pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
26.0%Fangorn 30.3%market -4.3pp
P 29.0
F 26.0
V 19.6
9.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform BetMGM 230 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 2
4.7%Fangorn 9.2%market -4.5pp
P 7.7
F 4.7
V 3.5
4.1pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 1
4.7%Fangorn 9.4%market -4.7pp
P 7.7
F 4.7
V 3.5
4.2pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 965 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.0pp
P 15.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
65
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
15.7%Fangorn 20.8%market -5.1pp
P 17.3
F 15.7
V 11.8
5.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 7
2.8%Fangorn 8.0%market -5.2pp
P 6.2
F 2.8
V 2.1
4.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
2.8%Fangorn 8.0%market -5.2pp
P 6.4
F 2.8
V 2.1
4.2pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
14.2%Fangorn 19.6%market -5.4pp
P 16.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 21.5%market -6.0pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 11.7
5.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 24.7%market -6.8pp
P 23.5
F 17.9
V 13.5
10.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 305 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 1
0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 3.0
F 0.0
V 0.0
3.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
72 Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1
0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 4.8
F 0.0
V 0.0
4.8pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.