Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2025-09-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
72
Matched
216
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2025-09-04 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 5
 19.5%Valinor 19.3%market -0.5pp
P 24.8
F 26.0
V 19.5
6.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
02
José Ramírez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 1
 19.5%Valinor 20.1%market -1.3pp
P 25.8
F 26.0
V 19.5
6.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 380 avg 3 books
03
Carlos Correa HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 6
 10.7%Valinor 12.4%market -1.7pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
04
Yordan Alvarez HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
 19.5%Valinor 21.5%market -2.7pp
P 27.6
F 26.0
V 19.5
8.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
05
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 2
 19.5%Valinor 21.7%market -3.0pp
P 25.3
F 26.0
V 19.5
6.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 345 avg 3 books
06
Yainer Diaz HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 7
 11.8%Valinor 14.5%market -3.2pp
P 18.0
F 15.7
V 11.8
6.2pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
07
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
 13.5%Valinor 16.5%market -3.6pp
P 20.1
F 17.9
V 13.5
6.6pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
08
Gary Sánchez MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 6
 13.5%Valinor 17.1%market -4.2pp
P 21.9
F 17.9
V 13.5
8.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
09
Salvador Perez KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 4
 13.5%Valinor 18.2%market -5.4pp
P 21.4
F 17.9
V 13.5
7.9pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
10
Bryce Harper PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 2
 13.5%Valinor 19.3%market -6.5pp
P 23.3
F 17.9
V 13.5
9.8pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
11
Angel Martínez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 7
 6.8%Valinor 9.5%market -3.0pp
P 8.8
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
12
Starling Marte KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 7
 6.8%Valinor 9.6%market -3.1pp
P 8.4
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.3pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 905 avg 3 books
13
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 8.6%Valinor 11.8%market -3.2pp
P 12.3
F 11.4
V 8.6
3.7pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
14
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 3
 10.0%Valinor 13.1%market -3.6pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 635 avg 3 books
15
Isaac Collins KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 2
 6.8%Valinor 10.1%market -3.7pp
P 9.6
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
16
Jonathan India KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 6
 6.8%Valinor 10.2%market -3.8pp
P 9.1
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.3pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 845 avg 3 books
17
Jeremy Peña HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
 8.4%Valinor 12.2%market -3.8pp
P 11.3
F 11.1
V 8.4
2.9pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
18
Edmundo Sosa PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 7
 10.0%Valinor 13.5%market -4.0pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 615 avg 3 books
19
Brice Turang MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 1
 6.8%Valinor 10.4%market -4.0pp
P 8.9
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.3pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
20
Joey Bart PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 7
 6.8%Valinor 10.4%market -4.0pp
P 8.6
F 9.1
V 6.8
2.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
21
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
 12.9%Valinor 16.4%market -4.0pp
P 18.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
5.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
22
Kyle Teel CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
 10.0%Valinor 13.6%market -4.0pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
23
Brandon Marsh PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 6
 8.6%Valinor 12.2%market -4.1pp
P 12.1
F 11.4
V 8.6
3.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
24
Daniel Schneemann CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 6
 8.4%Valinor 12.0%market -4.1pp
P 11.5
F 11.1
V 8.4
3.1pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
25
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 10.0%Valinor 13.7%market -4.1pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 605 avg 3 books
26
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4
 10.0%Valinor 13.8%market -4.2pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
27
Andrew Vaughn MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 5
 10.0%Valinor 13.8%market -4.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.6pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
28
Lenyn Sosa CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 7
 10.0%Valinor 14.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
29
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 5
 10.7%Valinor 14.6%market -4.5pp
P 15.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
30
Will Smith LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 9
 10.0%Valinor 14.1%market -4.6pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
31
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
 3.5%Valinor 7.8%market -4.6pp
P 7.0
F 4.7
V 3.5
3.5pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1125 avg 3 books
32
Jake Fraley TB
Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 6
 8.4%Valinor 12.7%market -4.8pp
P 11.4
F 11.1
V 8.4
3.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
33
Yandy Díaz TB
Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 2
 10.7%Valinor 15.1%market -4.9pp
P 14.4
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
34
Austin Hays CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
 8.4%Valinor 12.8%market -5.0pp
P 11.5
F 11.1
V 8.4
3.1pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
35
Jonathan Aranda TB
Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 3
 10.0%Valinor 14.5%market -5.0pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
36
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 1
 13.5%Valinor 17.9%market -5.1pp
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 13.5
7.5pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
37
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 4
 10.7%Valinor 15.2%market -5.1pp
P 14.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.9pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
38
Jake Bauers MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 7
 10.0%Valinor 14.6%market -5.1pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
39
Trea Turner PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 1
 10.2%Valinor 15.0%market -5.3pp
P 14.1
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.9pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
40
Jackson Chourio MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 4
 10.7%Valinor 15.6%market -5.4pp
P 14.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.2pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
41
Oneil Cruz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 9
 8.3%Valinor 13.3%market -5.5pp
P 10.6
F 11.1
V 8.3
2.7pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
42
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 6
 7.8%Valinor 13.3%market -5.6pp
P 10.2
F 10.3
V 7.8
2.6pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
43
Cedric Mullins TB
Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 5
 10.0%Valinor 15.1%market -5.6pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
44
Steven Kwan CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 2
 3.5%Valinor 8.9%market -5.8pp
P 7.7
F 4.7
V 3.5
4.1pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 975 avg 3 books
45
Jose Altuve HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 3
 10.7%Valinor 16.0%market -5.8pp
P 15.9
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.2pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
46
Gavin Lux TB
Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 7
 2.1%Valinor 7.7%market -5.9pp
P 6.2
F 2.8
V 2.1
4.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47
José Caballero NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 1
 3.5%Valinor 9.1%market -5.9pp
P 7.7
F 4.7
V 3.5
4.2pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
48
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
 2.1%Valinor 7.7%market -5.9pp
P 6.4
F 2.8
V 2.1
4.2pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49
Trent Grisham NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 7
 11.7%Valinor 17.3%market -6.2pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 11.7
5.0pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
50
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 3
 8.4%Valinor 14.0%market -6.2pp
P 11.3
F 11.1
V 8.4
2.9pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
51
Christian Walker HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 18.6%market -6.3pp
P 18.5
F 17.2
V 12.9
5.6pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
52
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LAAKyle Hendricks · slot 3
 11.8%Valinor 17.6%market -6.3pp
P 17.4
F 15.7
V 11.8
5.6pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
53
David Fry CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 5
 10.7%Valinor 16.5%market -6.4pp
P 15.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
54
Colson Montgomery CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 19.5%Valinor 25.0%market -6.5pp
P 24.7
F 26.0
V 19.5
6.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 285 avg 3 books
55
Giancarlo Stanton NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 4
 19.5%Valinor 25.1%market -6.5pp
P 26.9
F 26.0
V 19.5
7.4pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 285 avg 3 books
56
Andy Pages LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 7
 8.4%Valinor 14.5%market -6.7pp
P 11.6
F 11.1
V 8.4
3.2pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
57
Isaac Paredes HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 5
 10.7%Valinor 16.8%market -6.7pp
P 15.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.2pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
58
Ben Rice NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 6
 11.7%Valinor 17.7%market -6.7pp
P 17.2
F 15.5
V 11.7
5.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
59
Kyle Manzardo CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 3
 12.9%Valinor 19.3%market -7.1pp
P 18.9
F 17.2
V 12.9
6.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
60
Christian Yelich MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 2
 10.7%Valinor 17.3%market -7.2pp
P 16.2
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
61
Adolis García PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 4
 11.8%Valinor 18.4%market -7.2pp
P 17.4
F 15.7
V 11.8
5.6pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
62
Cody Bellinger NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 3
 10.7%Valinor 17.4%market -7.3pp
P 16.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.9pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
63
Kyle Schwarber PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 3
 19.5%Valinor 26.5%market -7.9pp
P 28.0
F 26.0
V 19.5
8.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
64
Chandler Simpson TB
Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 1
 0.0%Valinor 7.7%market -8.0pp
P 3.0
F 0.0
V 0.0
3.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
65
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1
 0.0%Valinor 7.7%market -8.0pp
P 4.8
F 0.0
V 0.0
4.8pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
66
Aaron Judge NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 2
 23.4%Valinor 30.6%market -8.4pp
P 31.5
F 31.1
V 23.4
8.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 215 avg 3 books
67
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
 10.7%Valinor 18.6%market -8.5pp
P 15.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
68
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
 11.8%Valinor 20.1%market -9.0pp
P 17.3
F 15.7
V 11.8
5.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 380 avg 3 books
69
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
 10.7%Valinor 19.1%market -9.1pp
P 16.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
70
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 4
 11.7%Valinor 21.0%market -10.1pp
P 17.0
F 15.5
V 11.7
5.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 360 avg 3 books
71
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
 19.6%Valinor 29.7%market -11.2pp
P 29.0
F 26.0
V 19.6
9.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 225 avg 3 books
72
Junior Caminero TB
Lineup pending
TB vs CLELogan Allen · slot 4
 13.5%Valinor 24.1%market -11.5pp
P 23.5
F 17.9
V 13.5
10.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 300 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.