Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-04-02 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
37
Matched
111
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-04-02 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jesús Sánchez TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
 15.5%Palantir 12.3%market +3.1pp
P 15.5
F 26.0
V 19.5
--pp 1.155xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
02
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
 15.3%Palantir 13.0%market +2.4pp
P 15.3
F 17.9
V 13.5
--pp 1.155xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
03
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 6
 15.3%Palantir 13.5%market +1.9pp
P 15.3
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
04
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
 17.2%Palantir 16.7%market +0.4pp
P 17.2
F 17.9
V 13.5
--pp 1.155xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
05
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 3
 12.5%Palantir 12.1%market +0.4pp
P 12.5
F 17.9
V 13.4
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
06
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
 16.2%Palantir 17.0%market -0.7pp
P 16.2
F 26.0
V 19.5
--pp 1.155xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
07
Ozzie Albies ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5
 13.0%Palantir 14.1%market -1.1pp
P 13.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
08
Ryan Jeffers MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 6
 10.5%Palantir 12.9%market -2.4pp
P 10.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
09
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
 15.2%Palantir 17.7%market -2.5pp
P 15.2
F 15.7
V 11.8
--pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
10
Jonathan India KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
 7.3%Palantir 10.0%market -2.7pp
P 7.3
F 11.4
V 8.6
--pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 905 avg 3 books
11
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 5
 11.0%Palantir 14.3%market -3.3pp
P 11.0
F 12.5
V 9.4
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
12
Nathan Lukes TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
 5.0%Palantir 9.6%market -4.6pp
P 5.0
F 26.0
V 19.5
--pp 1.155xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 945 avg 3 books
13
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 6
 2.6%Palantir 8.0%market -5.4pp
P 2.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 1.155xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
14
Daulton Varsho TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
 11.8%Palantir 17.5%market -5.7pp
P 11.8
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 1.155xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
15
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
 3.8%Palantir 13.2%market -9.4pp
P 3.8
F 13.4
V 10.0
--pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 660 avg 3 books
16
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 16.4%Palantir 17.7%market -1.3pp
P 16.4
F 26.0
V 19.5
--pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
17
Matt Chapman SF
Lineup pending
SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 3
 13.6%Palantir 16.7%market -3.0pp
P 13.6
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
18
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 5
 11.2%Palantir 14.4%market -3.1pp
P 11.2
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
19
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 4
 13.4%Palantir 16.7%market -3.2pp
P 13.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
20
Francisco Lindor NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 2
 15.3%Palantir 19.4%market -4.2pp
P 15.3
F 15.5
V 11.7
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
21
Drake Baldwin ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 3
 11.4%Palantir 16.0%market -4.6pp
P 11.4
F 17.9
V 13.5
--pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
22
Willy Adames SF
Lineup pending
SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 4
 13.7%Palantir 18.4%market -4.7pp
P 13.7
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
23
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 4
 10.7%Palantir 15.4%market -4.7pp
P 10.7
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
24
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1
 2.1%Palantir 8.0%market -5.9pp
P 2.1
F 9.1
V 6.8
--pp 1.155xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
25
Salvador Perez KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4
 11.9%Palantir 18.0%market -6.1pp
P 11.9
F 15.7
V 11.8
--pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
26
Mark Vientos NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 6
 10.8%Palantir 17.0%market -6.2pp
P 10.8
F 11.1
V 8.3
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
27
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1
 13.1%Palantir 19.4%market -6.3pp
P 13.1
F 15.7
V 11.8
--pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
28
Matt Olson ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2
 15.1%Palantir 21.7%market -6.6pp
P 15.1
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
29
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 1
 1.3%Palantir 8.0%market -6.7pp
P 1.3
F 4.7
V 3.5
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
30
Austin Riley ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 4
 10.2%Palantir 17.0%market -6.7pp
P 10.2
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
31
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 3
 14.9%Palantir 22.0%market -7.1pp
P 14.9
F 17.9
V 13.5
--pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
32
Rafael Devers SF
Lineup pending
SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 2
 13.0%Palantir 20.2%market -7.2pp
P 13.0
F 13.6
V 10.2
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
33
Royce Lewis MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 5
 9.0%Palantir 16.7%market -7.7pp
P 9.0
F 13.6
V 10.2
--pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
34
Luke Keaschall MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 1
 2.7%Palantir 11.2%market -8.5pp
P 2.7
F 3.4
V 2.5
--pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 790 avg 3 books
35
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1
 14.2%Palantir 23.3%market -9.0pp
P 14.2
F 17.9
V 13.5
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
36
Tyler Fitzgerald SF
Lineup pending
SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 6
 2.5%Palantir 12.1%market -9.6pp
P 2.5
F 0.0
V 0.0
--pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books
37
Colson Montgomery CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 11.4%Palantir 23.3%market -11.9pp
P 11.4
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 1.155xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.