Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2026-04-02 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Nathan Lukes TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6	26.0%Fangorn	9.1%market	+16.9pp	P 5.0 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02	Jesús Sánchez TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5	26.0%Fangorn	12.3%market	+13.6pp	P 15.5 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
03	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2	26.0%Fangorn	16.2%market	+9.8pp	P 16.2 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
04	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3	26.0%Fangorn	16.7%market	+9.2pp	P 16.4 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
05	Edgar Quero CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 6	14.2%Fangorn	7.7%market	+6.5pp	P 2.6 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
06	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 3	17.9%Fangorn	12.1%market	+5.8pp	P 12.5 F 17.9 V 13.4	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
07	Andrew Benintendi CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4	17.9%Fangorn	13.0%market	+4.9pp	P 15.3 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
08	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 6	17.2%Fangorn	13.5%market	+3.8pp	P 15.3 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
09	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6	11.4%Fangorn	9.5%market	+2.0pp	P 7.3 F 11.4 V 8.6	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 920 avg 3 books
10	Ryan Jeffers MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 6	14.2%Fangorn	12.3%market	+1.9pp	P 10.5 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
11	George Springer TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1	17.9%Fangorn	16.7%market	+1.2pp	P 17.2 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
12	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5	14.2%Fangorn	13.5%market	+0.8pp	P 13.0 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
13	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5	13.4%Fangorn	12.7%market	+0.7pp	P 3.8 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
14	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4	17.2%Fangorn	16.7%market	+0.5pp	P 11.8 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
15	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 5	12.5%Fangorn	14.3%market	-1.8pp	P 11.0 F 12.5 V 9.4	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
16	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1	15.7%Fangorn	17.7%market	-2.0pp	P 15.2 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
17	Heliot Ramos SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 5	17.2%Fangorn	13.7%market	+3.5pp	P 11.2 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
18	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 3	17.9%Fangorn	15.3%market	+2.6pp	P 11.4 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
19	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 4	17.2%Fangorn	15.8%market	+1.5pp	P 13.4 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
20	Chase Meidroth CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1	9.1%Fangorn	7.7%market	+1.4pp	P 2.1 F 9.1 V 6.8	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
21	Matt Chapman SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 3	17.2%Fangorn	15.9%market	+1.3pp	P 13.6 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
22	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 4	14.2%Fangorn	15.4%market	-1.2pp	P 10.7 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
23	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4	15.7%Fangorn	18.0%market	-2.3pp	P 11.9 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
24	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 4	14.2%Fangorn	17.0%market	-2.7pp	P 10.2 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
25	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 5	13.6%Fangorn	16.7%market	-3.1pp	P 9.0 F 13.6 V 10.2	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
26	Luis Arraez SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 1	4.7%Fangorn	8.0%market	-3.3pp	P 1.3 F 4.7 V 3.5	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
27	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1	15.7%Fangorn	19.4%market	-3.7pp	P 13.1 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
28	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 2	15.5%Fangorn	19.4%market	-3.9pp	P 15.3 F 15.5 V 11.7	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
29	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 3	17.9%Fangorn	22.0%market	-4.1pp	P 14.9 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
30	Willy Adames SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 4	14.2%Fangorn	18.4%market	-4.1pp	P 13.7 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
31	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2	17.2%Fangorn	21.7%market	-4.5pp	P 15.1 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
32	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1	17.9%Fangorn	23.3%market	-5.3pp	P 14.2 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
33	Mark Vientos NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 6	11.1%Fangorn	17.0%market	-5.9pp	P 10.8 F 11.1 V 8.3	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
34	Rafael Devers SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 2	13.6%Fangorn	20.2%market	-6.7pp	P 13.0 F 13.6 V 10.2	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
35	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 1	3.4%Fangorn	11.2%market	-7.8pp	P 2.7 F 3.4 V 2.5	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 790 avg 3 books
36	Colson Montgomery CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3	14.2%Fangorn	23.3%market	-9.0pp	P 11.4 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
37	Tyler Fitzgerald SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 6	0.0%Fangorn	12.1%market	-12.1pp	P 2.5 F 0.0 V 0.0	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 725 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR vs CWS · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Andrew BenintendiCWS vs TOR · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 George SpringerTOR vs CWS · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Jesús SánchezTOR vs CWS · DraftKings

P --

F --

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0.0pp 05 Daulton VarshoTOR vs CWS · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.