Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2026-04-02 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Andrew Benintendi CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4	13.5%Valinor	13.0%market	+8.3pp	P 15.3 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
02	Jesús Sánchez TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5	19.5%Valinor	12.3%market	+8.2pp	P 15.5 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
03	Nathan Lukes TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6	19.5%Valinor	9.1%market	+8.1pp	P 5.0 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
04	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2	19.5%Valinor	16.2%market	+6.5pp	P 16.2 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
05	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5	10.7%Valinor	13.5%market	+5.7pp	P 13.0 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
06	George Springer TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1	13.5%Valinor	16.7%market	+5.7pp	P 17.2 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
07	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 3	13.4%Valinor	12.1%market	+5.6pp	P 12.5 F 17.9 V 13.4	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
08	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6	8.6%Valinor	9.5%market	+4.5pp	P 7.3 F 11.4 V 8.6	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 920 avg 3 books
09	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 6	12.9%Valinor	13.5%market	+4.4pp	P 15.3 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
10	Edgar Quero CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 6	10.7%Valinor	7.7%market	+4.1pp	P 2.6 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
11	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4	12.9%Valinor	16.7%market	+4.0pp	P 11.8 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
12	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 5	9.4%Valinor	13.6%market	+4.0pp	P 11.0 F 12.5 V 9.4	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
13	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5	10.0%Valinor	12.7%market	+3.4pp	P 3.8 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
14	Ryan Jeffers MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 6	10.7%Valinor	12.3%market	+3.1pp	P 10.5 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
15	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1	11.8%Valinor	16.9%market	+2.7pp	P 15.2 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
16	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3	19.5%Valinor	16.7%market	+2.7pp	P 16.4 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
17	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 3	13.5%Valinor	15.3%market	+2.5pp	P 11.4 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
18	Heliot Ramos SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 5	12.9%Valinor	13.7%market	+2.5pp	P 11.2 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
19	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 4	10.7%Valinor	14.7%market	+2.4pp	P 10.7 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
20	Tyler Fitzgerald SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 6	0.0%Valinor	11.6%market	+2.3pp	P 2.5 F 0.0 V 0.0	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 730 avg 3 books
21	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 4	10.7%Valinor	16.2%market	+1.9pp	P 10.2 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
22	Chase Meidroth CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1	6.8%Valinor	7.7%market	+1.6pp	P 2.1 F 9.1 V 6.8	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
23	Matt Chapman SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 3	12.9%Valinor	15.9%market	+1.1pp	P 13.6 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
24	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 1	2.5%Valinor	10.7%market	+0.9pp	P 2.7 F 3.4 V 2.5	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 800 avg 3 books
25	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4	11.8%Valinor	17.2%market	+0.7pp	P 11.9 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
26	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 4	12.9%Valinor	15.8%market	+0.4pp	P 13.4 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
27	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1	11.8%Valinor	18.3%market	+0.2pp	P 13.1 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 425 avg 3 books
28	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 2	11.7%Valinor	18.9%market	-0.3pp	P 15.3 F 15.5 V 11.7	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
29	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2	12.9%Valinor	21.2%market	-0.4pp	P 15.1 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
30	Mark Vientos NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 6	8.3%Valinor	16.4%market	-0.9pp	P 10.8 F 11.1 V 8.3	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
31	Willy Adames SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 4	10.7%Valinor	17.7%market	-0.9pp	P 13.7 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
32	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 5	10.2%Valinor	16.2%market	-1.1pp	P 9.0 F 13.6 V 10.2	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
33	Luis Arraez SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 1	3.5%Valinor	8.0%market	-2.1pp	P 1.3 F 4.7 V 3.5	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
34	Colson Montgomery CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3	10.7%Valinor	23.3%market	-2.5pp	P 11.4 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	1.155xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
35	Rafael Devers SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 2	10.2%Valinor	20.2%market	-3.1pp	P 13.0 F 13.6 V 10.2	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
36	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs KCCole Ragans · slot 3	13.5%Valinor	22.0%market	-4.4pp	P 14.9 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
37	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1	13.5%Valinor	23.3%market	-5.4pp	P 14.2 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.898xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 330 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR vs CWS · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Andrew BenintendiCWS vs TOR · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 George SpringerTOR vs CWS · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Jesús SánchezTOR vs CWS · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Daulton VarshoTOR vs CWS · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.