Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-04-30 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
237
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-04-30 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
26.0%Fangorn 16.0%market +9.9pp
P 16.8
F 26.0
V 19.5
9.2pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
MIL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
26.0%Fangorn 16.4%market +9.5pp
P 14.5
F 26.0
V 19.5
11.4pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
17.9%Fangorn 9.1%market +8.8pp
P 3.9
F 17.9
V 13.4
14.1pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
MIL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 10.0%market +7.9pp
P 14.5
F 17.9
V 13.4
4.5pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 11.7%market +6.2pp
P 12.1
F 17.9
V 13.4
5.9pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
AZ vs MILBrandon Woodruff · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 9.3%market +6.2pp
P 8.6
F 15.5
V 11.6
6.9pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 12.3%market +5.6pp
P 12.7
F 17.9
V 13.4
5.2pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
DET vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
14.2%Fangorn 8.7%market +5.5pp
P 9.3
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.9pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
15.7%Fangorn 11.0%market +4.8pp
P 12.2
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 6
14.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +4.4pp
P 9.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.7pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
14.2%Fangorn 9.9%market +4.3pp
P 6.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
8.2pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 13.0%market +4.2pp
P 12.8
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.4pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 13.7%market +4.2pp
P 12.2
F 17.9
V 13.5
5.7pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
14
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 13.9%market +4.0pp
P 15.2
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
DET vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 6
14.2%Fangorn 10.5%market +3.7pp
P 10.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.3pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
16 Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
17.2%Fangorn 13.6%market +3.6pp
P 10.6
F 17.2
V 12.9
6.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.5pp
P 4.8
F 13.4
V 10.0
8.5pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
MIL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
15.7%Fangorn 12.5%market +3.2pp
P 11.4
F 15.7
V 11.8
4.3pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 12.4%market +3.1pp
P 12.0
F 15.5
V 11.6
3.9pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
20
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
15.7%Fangorn 12.7%market +3.0pp
P 10.7
F 15.7
V 11.8
5.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
21 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
14.2%Fangorn 11.3%market +2.9pp
P 10.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.7pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 15.0%market +2.9pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 13.5
6.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
23
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 10.7%market +2.7pp
P 6.1
F 13.4
V 10.0
7.2pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 12.3%market +1.9pp
P 8.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
6.1pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 12.7%market +1.5pp
P 8.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 13.4%market +0.9pp
P 4.7
F 14.2
V 10.7
9.5pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
27 Lineup pending
ATL vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 13.5%market +0.8pp
P 12.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 13.5%market +0.8pp
P 10.9
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 4
13.6%Fangorn 12.9%market +0.6pp
P 8.2
F 13.6
V 10.2
5.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 17.3%market +0.6pp
P 18.1
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.7pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
31 Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 7
10.3%Fangorn 10.0%market +0.4pp
P 7.6
F 10.3
V 7.8
2.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 870 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 3
11.1%Fangorn 11.6%market -0.5pp
P 4.0
F 11.1
V 8.3
7.0pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
14.2%Fangorn 14.8%market -0.6pp
P 10.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 18.7%market -0.8pp
P 14.4
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
35
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
11.1%Fangorn 13.4%market -2.3pp
P 9.8
F 11.1
V 8.3
2.8pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
36 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5
11.4%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.4pp
P 10.5
F 11.4
V 8.6
2.8pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
37 Lineup pending
AZ vs MILBrandon Woodruff · slot 5
11.4%Fangorn 14.2%market -2.8pp
P 8.5
F 11.4
V 8.6
2.9pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
ATH vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 6
4.7%Fangorn 9.5%market -4.8pp
P 3.2
F 4.7
V 3.5
1.5pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 950 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 6
0.0%Fangorn 12.1%market -12.1pp
P 3.0
F 0.0
V 0.0
3.0pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 6
14.2%Fangorn 7.7%market +6.5pp
P 2.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
11.7pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
STL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
17.2%Fangorn 12.5%market +4.7pp
P 13.6
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
STL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 13.3%market +4.0pp
P 12.7
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.5pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 7
14.2%Fangorn 11.9%market +2.3pp
P 10.4
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.8pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 15.9%market +2.0pp
P 14.8
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.8pp
P 12.7
F 17.9
V 13.5
5.2pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 16.4%market +1.5pp
P 16.8
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
9.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 1.6
F 9.1
V 6.8
7.5pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
DET vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
17.2%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.0pp
P 14.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4
17.2%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.0pp
P 14.1
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
AZ vs MILBrandon Woodruff · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 17.5%market +0.5pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
DET vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 18.5%market -0.6pp
P 13.5
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
52
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.3pp
P 10.3
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.9pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 19.4%market -1.5pp
P 15.6
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
15.7%Fangorn 17.5%market -1.8pp
P 13.6
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
DET vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 20.2%market -2.3pp
P 14.1
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.4pp
P 7.8
F 13.4
V 10.0
5.5pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
17.2%Fangorn 19.6%market -2.4pp
P 13.5
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 18.4%market -2.8pp
P 14.8
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
4.7%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.3pp
P 1.7
F 4.7
V 3.5
3.0pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
ATL vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 17.5%market -3.3pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.1pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 17.5%market -3.3pp
P 9.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.7pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
15.7%Fangorn 19.4%market -3.7pp
P 15.7
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 18.0%market -3.8pp
P 9.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.4pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
AZ vs MILBrandon Woodruff · slot 2
17.2%Fangorn 21.1%market -3.8pp
P 14.7
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
ATL vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
15.7%Fangorn 20.0%market -4.3pp
P 12.8
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 20.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.8
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
ATH vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 22.5%market -4.6pp
P 14.9
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.4pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 4
15.7%Fangorn 20.4%market -4.7pp
P 15.7
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
ATH vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 22.0%market -4.8pp
P 14.1
F 17.2
V 13.0
4.3pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3
15.7%Fangorn 21.1%market -5.3pp
P 12.9
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
14.2%Fangorn 20.2%market -6.0pp
P 14.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
72
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 24.1%market -6.2pp
P 15.8
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.4pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
ATL vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 2
14.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -6.6pp
P 13.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
74 Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
14.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -7.5pp
P 13.7
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
75 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.7pp
P 9.9
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.4pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
76 Lineup pending
STL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 1.1
F 0.0
V 0.0
1.1pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
77 Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1
2.8%Fangorn 11.0%market -8.2pp
P 2.3
F 2.8
V 2.1
0.7pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
15.7%Fangorn 27.0%market -11.3pp
P 14.0
F 15.7
V 11.9
3.8pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
79 Lineup pending
ATH vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
13.4%Fangorn 26.0%market -12.6pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 10.1
3.3pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.