Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-04-30 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
237
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-04-30 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
13.4%Valinor 9.1%market +4.0pp
P 3.9
F 17.9
V 13.4
14.1pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
MIL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
13.4%Valinor 10.0%market +3.1pp
P 14.5
F 17.9
V 13.4
4.5pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
19.5%Valinor 16.0%market +2.8pp
P 16.8
F 26.0
V 19.5
9.2pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
MIL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
19.5%Valinor 16.4%market +2.4pp
P 14.5
F 26.0
V 19.5
11.4pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
AZ vs MILBrandon Woodruff · slot 3
11.6%Valinor 9.3%market +2.0pp
P 8.6
F 15.5
V 11.6
6.9pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
DET vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
10.7%Valinor 8.7%market +1.7pp
P 9.3
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.9pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
13.4%Valinor 11.7%market +1.3pp
P 12.1
F 17.9
V 13.4
5.9pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
13.4%Valinor 12.3%market +0.7pp
P 12.7
F 17.9
V 13.4
5.2pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 6
10.7%Valinor 9.8%market +0.5pp
P 9.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.7pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
11.8%Valinor 11.0%market +0.4pp
P 12.2
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
10.7%Valinor 9.9%market +0.4pp
P 6.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
8.2pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
DET vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 6
10.7%Valinor 10.6%market -0.3pp
P 10.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.3pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 5
10.0%Valinor 10.0%market -0.3pp
P 4.8
F 13.4
V 10.0
8.5pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
12.9%Valinor 13.6%market -0.7pp
P 12.8
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.4pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
13.5%Valinor 13.7%market -0.8pp
P 12.2
F 17.9
V 13.5
5.7pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
16
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
10.0%Valinor 10.7%market -1.1pp
P 6.1
F 13.4
V 10.0
7.2pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
17
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 1
13.5%Valinor 14.1%market -1.1pp
P 15.2
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
10.7%Valinor 11.8%market -1.2pp
P 10.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.7pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
MIL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
11.8%Valinor 12.5%market -1.2pp
P 11.4
F 15.7
V 11.8
4.3pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
20 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 4
11.6%Valinor 13.0%market -1.4pp
P 12.0
F 15.5
V 11.6
3.9pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
21 Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
12.9%Valinor 13.8%market -1.4pp
P 10.6
F 17.2
V 12.9
6.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
22
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
11.8%Valinor 13.3%market -1.5pp
P 10.7
F 15.7
V 11.8
5.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
10.7%Valinor 12.3%market -2.1pp
P 8.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
6.1pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
13.5%Valinor 15.3%market -2.4pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 13.5
6.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 7
7.8%Valinor 10.0%market -2.7pp
P 7.6
F 10.3
V 7.8
2.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 860 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5
10.7%Valinor 13.3%market -2.7pp
P 8.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
5.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
27 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 3
8.3%Valinor 11.1%market -3.2pp
P 4.0
F 11.1
V 8.3
7.0pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
10.7%Valinor 14.0%market -3.3pp
P 4.7
F 14.2
V 10.7
9.5pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 4
10.2%Valinor 13.1%market -3.3pp
P 8.2
F 13.6
V 10.2
5.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 640 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
ATL vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
10.7%Valinor 14.1%market -3.4pp
P 12.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
31 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
10.7%Valinor 13.6%market -3.4pp
P 10.9
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
10.7%Valinor 14.3%market -4.1pp
P 10.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
13.5%Valinor 17.7%market -4.9pp
P 18.1
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.7pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
34
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
8.3%Valinor 13.0%market -5.1pp
P 9.8
F 11.1
V 8.3
2.8pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5
8.6%Valinor 13.3%market -5.2pp
P 10.5
F 11.4
V 8.6
2.8pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
36 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
13.5%Valinor 18.2%market -5.4pp
P 14.4
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
37 Lineup pending
AZ vs MILBrandon Woodruff · slot 5
8.6%Valinor 13.7%market -5.6pp
P 8.5
F 11.4
V 8.6
2.9pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 605 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
ATH vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 6
3.5%Valinor 9.2%market -6.0pp
P 3.2
F 4.7
V 3.5
1.5pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 945 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 6
0.0%Valinor 12.1%market -12.1pp
P 3.0
F 0.0
V 0.0
3.0pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
11.9%Valinor 26.5%market -15.5pp
P 14.0
F 15.7
V 11.9
3.8pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 6
10.7%Valinor 7.7%market +2.7pp
P 2.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
11.7pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
STL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
12.9%Valinor 12.5%market -0.1pp
P 13.6
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
STL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
12.9%Valinor 13.3%market -0.9pp
P 12.7
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.5pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
6.8%Valinor 7.7%market -1.2pp
P 1.6
F 9.1
V 6.8
7.5pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 7
10.7%Valinor 12.5%market -1.8pp
P 10.4
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.8pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 3
13.5%Valinor 16.2%market -3.4pp
P 14.8
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
13.5%Valinor 16.4%market -3.5pp
P 12.7
F 17.9
V 13.5
5.2pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 2
13.5%Valinor 16.8%market -3.9pp
P 16.8
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
DET vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
12.9%Valinor 16.5%market -4.2pp
P 14.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4
12.9%Valinor 16.5%market -4.2pp
P 14.1
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
3.5%Valinor 7.7%market -4.5pp
P 1.7
F 4.7
V 3.5
3.0pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
52
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4
10.7%Valinor 15.0%market -4.8pp
P 10.3
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.9pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
AZ vs MILBrandon Woodruff · slot 1
13.5%Valinor 17.9%market -5.1pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
DET vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
13.5%Valinor 18.1%market -5.2pp
P 13.5
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5
10.0%Valinor 15.2%market -5.7pp
P 7.8
F 13.4
V 10.0
5.5pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
11.8%Valinor 17.1%market -5.9pp
P 13.6
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
13.5%Valinor 18.9%market -6.2pp
P 15.6
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4
11.7%Valinor 17.7%market -6.7pp
P 14.8
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
12.9%Valinor 19.1%market -6.9pp
P 13.5
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
DET vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
13.5%Valinor 19.7%market -6.9pp
P 14.1
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.4pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
ATL vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
10.7%Valinor 17.1%market -7.0pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.1pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
10.7%Valinor 17.1%market -7.0pp
P 9.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.7pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
PHI vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
10.7%Valinor 17.4%market -7.3pp
P 9.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
4.4pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
11.8%Valinor 18.9%market -7.8pp
P 15.7
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
STL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
0.0%Valinor 7.7%market -8.0pp
P 1.1
F 0.0
V 0.0
1.1pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
ATL vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
11.8%Valinor 19.3%market -8.2pp
P 12.8
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
AZ vs MILBrandon Woodruff · slot 2
12.9%Valinor 20.5%market -8.3pp
P 14.7
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.916xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2
11.7%Valinor 19.5%market -8.6pp
P 12.8
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 395 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 4
11.8%Valinor 19.9%market -8.8pp
P 15.7
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1
2.1%Valinor 10.6%market -8.9pp
P 2.3
F 2.8
V 2.1
0.7pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
ATH vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
13.5%Valinor 22.0%market -9.2pp
P 14.9
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.4pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
72 Lineup pending
ATH vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3
13.0%Valinor 21.5%market -9.3pp
P 14.1
F 17.2
V 13.0
4.3pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
MIN vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3
11.8%Valinor 20.5%market -9.4pp
P 12.9
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.902xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
74 Lineup pending
SF vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
10.7%Valinor 19.7%market -9.7pp
P 14.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 1.020xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
75 Lineup pending
ATL vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 2
10.7%Valinor 20.3%market -10.4pp
P 13.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 1.015xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
76
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
13.5%Valinor 23.6%market -10.9pp
P 15.8
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.4pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 310 avg 3 books
77 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 2
10.0%Valinor 20.5%market -11.2pp
P 9.9
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.4pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
CIN vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
10.7%Valinor 21.2%market -11.3pp
P 13.7
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
79 Lineup pending
ATH vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
10.1%Valinor 25.4%market -16.2pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 10.1
3.3pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 280 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.