Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-05-04 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
237
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-05-04 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 6
14.2%Valinor 9.5%market +4.4pp
P 6.4
F 10.3
V 14.2
7.8pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 920 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
13.6%Valinor 9.1%market +4.1pp
P 4.1
F 17.9
V 13.6
13.8pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
NYM vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3
16.1%Valinor 11.7%market +4.0pp
P 14.0
F 17.9
V 16.1
3.9pp 0.974xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
LAA vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 7
12.5%Valinor 8.5%market +3.7pp
P 3.9
F 11.1
V 12.5
8.6pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
STL vs MILChad Patrick · slot 3
17.0%Valinor 13.3%market +3.2pp
P 15.7
F 17.9
V 17.0
2.2pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
STL vs MILChad Patrick · slot 2
16.1%Valinor 12.5%market +3.1pp
P 16.9
F 17.9
V 16.1
1.8pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 5
15.7%Valinor 12.3%market +3.0pp
P 8.0
F 14.2
V 15.7
7.7pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
15.0%Valinor 11.9%market +2.6pp
P 10.2
F 13.4
V 15.0
4.8pp 1.006xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
13.1%Valinor 10.1%market +2.6pp
P 3.2
F 14.2
V 13.1
11.0pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
15.4%Valinor 12.3%market +2.6pp
P 13.2
F 17.9
V 15.4
4.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
11
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 2
15.7%Valinor 12.7%market +2.5pp
P 10.6
F 15.7
V 15.7
5.1pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
ATL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
16.2%Valinor 13.5%market +2.2pp
P 12.3
F 14.2
V 16.2
3.9pp 0.942xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
13.5%Valinor 11.0%market +2.1pp
P 11.2
F 14.2
V 13.5
3.0pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
TB vs TOREric Lauer · slot 2
17.1%Valinor 14.8%market +1.7pp
P 17.5
F 26.0
V 17.1
8.9pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
12.6%Valinor 10.6%market +1.6pp
P 8.3
F 4.7
V 12.6
7.9pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
16 Lineup pending
HOU vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
13.1%Valinor 11.2%market +1.6pp
P 9.7
F 15.5
V 13.1
5.8pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
NYM vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5
14.9%Valinor 13.2%market +1.2pp
P 11.8
F 13.4
V 14.9
3.1pp 0.974xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 4
14.9%Valinor 13.6%market +0.8pp
P 10.5
F 17.2
V 14.9
6.8pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
ATL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
14.3%Valinor 13.5%market +0.3pp
P 14.5
F 15.7
V 14.3
1.4pp 0.942xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
20 Lineup pending
HOU vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 6
11.7%Valinor 11.1%market +0.2pp
P 9.6
F 14.2
V 11.7
4.6pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
21
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 6
13.3%Valinor 13.0%market -0.1pp
P 9.7
F 10.3
V 13.3
3.7pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 1
15.7%Valinor 15.3%market -0.1pp
P 19.7
F 17.9
V 15.7
4.0pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
16.8%Valinor 17.2%market -1.1pp
P 14.7
F 17.9
V 16.8
3.2pp 1.006xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
NYM vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4
15.4%Valinor 16.5%market -1.7pp
P 15.8
F 17.9
V 15.4
2.5pp 0.974xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
CWS vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
11.5%Valinor 13.0%market -2.0pp
P 11.5
F 15.7
V 11.5
4.2pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
NYM vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
16.0%Valinor 18.9%market -3.6pp
P 17.5
F 17.2
V 16.0
1.6pp 0.974xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
27 Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 2
19.8%Valinor 29.3%market -10.5pp
P 16.6
F 17.2
V 19.8
3.2pp 1.006xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
16.6%Valinor 26.5%market -10.8pp
P 13.3
F 15.5
V 16.6
3.3pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
CWS vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3
12.6%Valinor 22.7%market -10.9pp
P 8.4
F 11.1
V 12.6
4.2pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
STL vs MILChad Patrick · slot 1
15.7%Valinor 7.7%market +7.7pp
P 1.7
F 0.0
V 15.7
15.7pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31 Lineup pending
SF vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
14.5%Valinor 7.7%market +6.6pp
P 1.6
F 9.1
V 14.5
12.9pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
18.4%Valinor 12.5%market +5.4pp
P 3.4
F 11.1
V 18.4
14.9pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
13.4%Valinor 7.7%market +5.4pp
P 1.7
F 9.1
V 13.4
11.7pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
SF vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 7
12.0%Valinor 7.7%market +4.0pp
P 1.8
F 9.1
V 12.0
10.2pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
12.9%Valinor 8.7%market +3.9pp
P 4.4
F 11.1
V 12.9
8.6pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
36 Lineup pending
CWS vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
11.2%Valinor 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 1.5
F 2.8
V 11.2
9.8pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37 Lineup pending
LAA vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 6
15.2%Valinor 12.8%market +2.0pp
P 7.1
F 17.2
V 15.2
10.1pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
19.1%Valinor 16.7%market +1.8pp
P 15.1
F 17.9
V 19.1
4.0pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
19.6%Valinor 17.2%market +1.7pp
P 11.0
F 15.5
V 19.6
8.6pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
SF vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
15.3%Valinor 13.1%market +1.7pp
P 10.4
F 17.2
V 15.3
6.8pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
41
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
12.6%Valinor 10.7%market +1.6pp
P 5.2
F 11.1
V 12.6
7.4pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
18.3%Valinor 16.2%market +1.5pp
P 13.2
F 17.9
V 18.3
5.1pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
LAA vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 5
17.3%Valinor 15.2%market +1.4pp
P 10.0
F 14.2
V 17.3
7.3pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
CWS vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6
9.2%Valinor 7.7%market +1.1pp
P 1.7
F 10.3
V 9.2
8.7pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
18.4%Valinor 16.9%market +0.9pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 18.4
4.4pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
15.6%Valinor 14.1%market +0.9pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 15.6
5.5pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
15.4%Valinor 14.0%market +0.8pp
P 9.8
F 14.2
V 15.4
5.6pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
18.1%Valinor 16.7%market +0.7pp
P 14.1
F 17.2
V 18.1
4.0pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
SF vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
16.5%Valinor 15.4%market +0.5pp
P 12.8
F 15.7
V 16.5
3.7pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
HOU vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
16.1%Valinor 15.0%market +0.5pp
P 10.1
F 15.7
V 16.1
6.0pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
51
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
14.3%Valinor 13.4%market +0.4pp
P 12.2
F 15.5
V 14.3
3.3pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
LAA vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
17.5%Valinor 16.4%market +0.4pp
P 5.4
F 11.4
V 17.5
12.2pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
ATL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
16.6%Valinor 16.4%market -0.3pp
P 9.5
F 13.6
V 16.6
7.1pp 0.942xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
HOU vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 5
15.6%Valinor 15.5%market -0.4pp
P 10.6
F 14.2
V 15.6
5.0pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
17.5%Valinor 17.4%market -0.5pp
P 13.4
F 17.2
V 17.5
4.1pp 1.006xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
56
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
16.7%Valinor 16.7%market -0.5pp
P 13.5
F 17.2
V 16.7
3.8pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
17.2%Valinor 17.1%market -0.5pp
P 10.0
F 14.2
V 17.2
7.2pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
SF vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
16.8%Valinor 17.1%market -0.9pp
P 12.9
F 14.2
V 16.8
3.9pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
17.4%Valinor 17.7%market -1.0pp
P 13.9
F 14.2
V 17.4
3.5pp 1.006xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
18.0%Valinor 18.6%market -1.2pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 18.0
0.7pp 1.006xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
ATL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
14.9%Valinor 15.6%market -1.3pp
P 10.4
F 17.2
V 14.9
6.8pp 0.942xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
62
Ben Rice NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
14.9%Valinor 15.7%market -1.3pp
P 17.7
F 17.9
V 14.9
3.0pp 1.006xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
16.4%Valinor 17.1%market -1.4pp
P 12.3
F 14.2
V 16.4
4.1pp 1.006xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
16.4%Valinor 17.4%market -1.6pp
P 9.3
F 13.6
V 16.4
7.1pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
LAA vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
17.4%Valinor 18.8%market -2.0pp
P 15.2
F 17.9
V 17.4
2.7pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
HOU vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
16.2%Valinor 17.7%market -2.1pp
P 11.1
F 14.2
V 16.2
5.1pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
ATL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
17.0%Valinor 18.8%market -2.5pp
P 12.2
F 15.5
V 17.0
4.7pp 0.942xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
15.2%Valinor 17.1%market -2.5pp
P 13.3
F 14.2
V 15.2
1.8pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
69
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
16.4%Valinor 19.1%market -3.4pp
P 15.2
F 15.7
V 16.4
1.2pp 0.931xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
PHI vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
16.1%Valinor 19.1%market -3.8pp
P 12.9
F 15.7
V 16.1
3.2pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
SF vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
16.9%Valinor 20.3%market -4.1pp
P 14.2
F 14.2
V 16.9
2.7pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
72 Lineup pending
ATL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
17.5%Valinor 21.2%market -4.5pp
P 14.2
F 15.5
V 17.5
3.3pp 0.942xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
HOU vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
16.2%Valinor 20.3%market -4.9pp
P 11.4
F 15.5
V 16.2
4.8pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
74 Lineup pending
CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 3
17.1%Valinor 21.2%market -4.9pp
P 13.7
F 14.2
V 17.1
3.5pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
75 Lineup pending
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
15.3%Valinor 19.9%market -5.3pp
P 15.8
F 15.7
V 15.3
0.4pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
76 Lineup pending
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
17.2%Valinor 21.7%market -5.3pp
P 15.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.4pp 1.006xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 345 avg 3 books
77 Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
17.8%Valinor 22.4%market -5.4pp
P 13.0
F 14.2
V 17.8
4.9pp 1.006xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
TB vs TOREric Lauer · slot 4
17.0%Valinor 22.2%market -6.0pp
P 22.0
F 19.6
V 17.0
5.0pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
79
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
15.0%Valinor 23.6%market -9.3pp
P 17.6
F 26.0
V 15.0
10.9pp 0.974xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 310 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.