Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2026-05-07 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 3	26.0%Fangorn	12.1%market	+13.9pp	P 15.6 F 26.0 V 17.6	10.4pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
02	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3	26.0%Fangorn	16.7%market	+9.2pp	P 17.9 F 26.0 V 19.9	8.0pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
03	Geraldo Perdomo AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3	17.2%Fangorn	9.3%market	+7.9pp	P 9.6 F 17.2 V 11.8	7.6pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
04	Brandon Marsh PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6	17.9%Fangorn	11.0%market	+6.9pp	P 13.6 F 17.9 V 9.5	8.4pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
05	Trevor Larnach MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 7	17.2%Fangorn	11.9%market	+5.3pp	P 12.3 F 17.2 V 8.9	8.3pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
06	Miguel Andujar SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 6	14.2%Fangorn	9.1%market	+5.1pp	P 7.8 F 14.2 V 6.7	7.5pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
07	Ryan O'Hearn PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 3	17.9%Fangorn	13.0%market	+4.9pp	P 13.6 F 17.9 V 12.3	5.6pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
08	Steven Kwan CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2	13.6%Fangorn	8.7%market	+4.9pp	P 5.7 F 13.6 V 10.5	7.8pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
09	Alec Burleson STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 3	17.9%Fangorn	13.3%market	+4.7pp	P 13.8 F 17.9 V 11.0	6.9pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
10	Spencer Horwitz PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 6	15.7%Fangorn	11.3%market	+4.4pp	P 11.3 F 15.7 V 8.5	7.2pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
11	Keibert Ruiz WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 5	14.2%Fangorn	9.8%market	+4.4pp	P 5.5 F 14.2 V 11.4	8.8pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
12	Jakob Marsee MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCade Povich · slot 2	13.6%Fangorn	9.4%market	+4.2pp	P 3.0 F 13.6 V 12.9	10.6pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
13	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 6	13.6%Fangorn	9.5%market	+4.1pp	P 8.7 F 13.6 V 14.0	5.3pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 920 avg 3 books
14	Cj Abrams WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 1	17.9%Fangorn	13.9%market	+4.0pp	P 15.9 F 17.9 V 13.9	4.1pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
15	Bo Naylor CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4	17.2%Fangorn	13.4%market	+3.9pp	P 14.1 F 17.2 V 13.1	4.2pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
16	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4	17.9%Fangorn	14.4%market	+3.6pp	P 11.5 F 17.9 V 12.7	6.4pp	0.961xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
17	Alec Bohm PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5	14.2%Fangorn	10.7%market	+3.5pp	P 7.2 F 14.2 V 9.3	7.0pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
18	Luis García Jr. WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 4	15.7%Fangorn	12.4%market	+3.3pp	P 12.6 F 15.7 V 13.2	3.2pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
19	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1	11.1%Fangorn	7.9%market	+3.2pp	P 6.6 F 11.1 V 11.6	4.9pp	1.033xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
20	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1	17.9%Fangorn	15.0%market	+2.9pp	P 19.8 F 17.9 V 12.6	7.3pp	0.961xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
21	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5	15.7%Fangorn	13.0%market	+2.7pp	P 8.9 F 15.7 V 13.1	6.8pp	0.961xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
22	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2	14.2%Fangorn	11.7%market	+2.5pp	P 9.4 F 14.2 V 12.1	4.8pp	0.961xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
23	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4	17.2%Fangorn	14.8%market	+2.4pp	P 12.3 F 17.2 V 12.6	4.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
24	Adley Rutschman BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 5	14.2%Fangorn	11.9%market	+2.3pp	P 11.9 F 14.2 V 13.0	2.3pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
25	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 4	17.9%Fangorn	15.9%market	+2.0pp	P 16.1 F 17.9 V 15.1	2.8pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
26	Trea Turner PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1	15.7%Fangorn	14.1%market	+1.6pp	P 12.1 F 15.7 V 11.4	4.4pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
27	Agustín Ramírez MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCade Povich · slot 4	15.7%Fangorn	14.6%market	+1.2pp	P 11.4 F 15.7 V 16.1	4.8pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
28	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5	13.6%Fangorn	12.5%market	+1.1pp	P 4.1 F 13.6 V 19.4	15.3pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
29	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3	17.2%Fangorn	16.2%market	+1.0pp	P 13.7 F 17.2 V 17.3	3.6pp	1.033xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
30	Bryan Reynolds PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 5	14.2%Fangorn	13.5%market	+0.8pp	P 11.7 F 14.2 V 13.5	2.5pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
31	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 5	14.2%Fangorn	13.6%market	+0.6pp	P 13.2 F 14.2 V 15.8	2.6pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
32	Daylen Lile WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 3	11.4%Fangorn	11.1%market	+0.3pp	P 4.5 F 11.4 V 10.8	6.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
33	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1	17.2%Fangorn	17.7%market	-0.5pp	P 16.6 F 17.2 V 21.0	4.4pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
34	Daniel Schneemann CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6	10.3%Fangorn	11.1%market	-0.8pp	P 10.2 F 10.3 V 10.5	0.3pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 800 avg 3 books
35	Carlos Santana AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5	13.4%Fangorn	14.2%market	-0.8pp	P 8.8 F 13.4 V 14.2	5.3pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
36	Heriberto Hernández MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCade Povich · slot 6	11.4%Fangorn	12.5%market	-1.1pp	P 8.8 F 11.4 V 12.8	4.1pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
37	Nick Castellanos SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4	14.2%Fangorn	15.4%market	-1.2pp	P 9.8 F 14.2 V 11.5	4.4pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
38	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 2	17.9%Fangorn	19.4%market	-1.5pp	P 18.2 F 17.9 V 15.5	2.7pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
39	Gunnar Henderson BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 1	15.5%Fangorn	18.4%market	-2.8pp	P 15.5 F 15.5 V 15.9	0.4pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
40	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1	6.6%Fangorn	11.0%market	-4.4pp	P 3.3 F 6.6 V 12.2	8.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
41	José Tena WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 6	15.7%Fangorn	7.7%market	+8.0pp	P 2.8 F 15.7 V 10.3	12.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42	Iván Herrera STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 2	17.9%Fangorn	12.5%market	+5.4pp	P 14.9 F 17.9 V 10.3	7.6pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
43	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 1	26.0%Fangorn	22.1%market	+3.8pp	P 17.1 F 26.0 V 14.9	11.1pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 335 avg 3 books
44	Ramón Laureano SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5	17.9%Fangorn	14.7%market	+3.2pp	P 14.4 F 17.9 V 11.2	6.7pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
45	James Wood WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 2	17.9%Fangorn	16.4%market	+1.5pp	P 17.5 F 17.9 V 15.0	2.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
46	Xavier Edwards MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCade Povich · slot 1	9.1%Fangorn	7.7%market	+1.4pp	P 1.8 F 9.1 V 11.7	9.9pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47	Jake Mangum PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 1	9.1%Fangorn	7.7%market	+1.4pp	P 2.0 F 9.1 V 10.8	8.9pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48	Fernando Tatis Jr. SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1	17.9%Fangorn	17.0%market	+0.9pp	P 16.4 F 17.9 V 11.9	6.0pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
49	Taylor Ward BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 4	17.9%Fangorn	17.2%market	+0.8pp	P 15.0 F 17.9 V 17.3	2.9pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
50	Corbin Carroll AZ Lineup pending Triple	AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1	17.9%Fangorn	17.5%market	+0.5pp	P 17.9 F 17.9 V 15.6	2.3pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
51	Tyler O'Neill BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 3	17.2%Fangorn	17.7%market	-0.5pp	P 13.7 F 17.2 V 14.3	3.5pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
52	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5	17.2%Fangorn	17.9%market	-0.7pp	P 15.7 F 17.2 V 17.0	1.5pp	1.033xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
53	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 4	17.2%Fangorn	18.0%market	-0.8pp	P 13.1 F 17.2 V 20.5	7.4pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
54	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5	14.2%Fangorn	15.8%market	-1.5pp	P 9.3 F 14.2 V 14.1	4.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
55	Bryce Harper PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2	17.9%Fangorn	19.6%market	-1.7pp	P 15.0 F 17.9 V 13.7	4.2pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
56	Kyle Manzardo CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3	15.7%Fangorn	17.5%market	-1.8pp	P 15.4 F 15.7 V 13.8	1.9pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
57	Matt Wallner MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2	17.9%Fangorn	20.0%market	-2.1pp	P 15.1 F 17.9 V 14.7	3.2pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
58	Manny Machado SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 2	17.2%Fangorn	19.6%market	-2.4pp	P 12.6 F 17.2 V 12.0	5.2pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
59	José Ramírez CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1	17.9%Fangorn	20.4%market	-2.5pp	P 18.2 F 17.9 V 14.6	3.6pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
60	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending Triple	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3	17.9%Fangorn	21.1%market	-3.1pp	P 15.5 F 17.9 V 14.1	3.8pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
61	Brandon Lowe PIT Lineup pending Triple	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 4	17.2%Fangorn	20.4%market	-3.2pp	P 16.8 F 17.2 V 12.9	4.4pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
62	Mark Vientos NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 6	13.4%Fangorn	17.0%market	-3.6pp	P 12.8 F 13.4 V 12.5	0.9pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
63	Adolis García PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4	14.2%Fangorn	18.0%market	-3.8pp	P 10.9 F 14.2 V 14.8	4.0pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
64	Ketel Marte AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2	17.2%Fangorn	21.1%market	-3.8pp	P 15.2 F 17.2 V 17.7	2.5pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
65	Jackson Merrill SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3	11.1%Fangorn	15.3%market	-4.2pp	P 10.0 F 11.1 V 10.7	1.1pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
66	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending Triple	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4	17.9%Fangorn	23.5%market	-5.6pp	P 17.5 F 17.9 V 18.0	0.4pp	1.033xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 325 avg 3 books
67	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending Triple	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3	15.7%Fangorn	22.5%market	-6.7pp	P 14.9 F 15.7 V 14.7	1.0pp	0.961xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
68	Pete Alonso BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 2	15.5%Fangorn	23.0%market	-7.5pp	P 14.3 F 15.5 V 16.2	1.9pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
69	Marcell Ozuna PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 2	13.6%Fangorn	21.1%market	-7.5pp	P 10.6 F 13.6 V 13.9	3.3pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
70	Victor Scott II STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 1	0.0%Fangorn	8.0%market	-8.0pp	P 1.4 F 0.0 V 9.0	9.0pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Strong Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
71	Kyle Schwarber PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3	17.2%Fangorn	27.0%market	-9.8pp	P 15.6 F 17.2 V 13.6	3.7pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
72	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2	17.9%Fangorn	31.2%market	-13.3pp	P 17.9 F 17.9 V 21.5	3.6pp	1.033xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 220 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Bo BichetteNYM vs COL · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Adley RutschmanBAL vs MIA · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Francisco LindorNYM vs COL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Marcus SemienNYM vs COL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Gunnar HendersonBAL vs MIA · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple5cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.