Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2026-05-07 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5	19.4%Valinor	12.5%market	+6.4pp	P 4.1 F 13.6 V 19.4	15.3pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
02	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 3	17.6%Valinor	12.1%market	+5.0pp	P 15.6 F 26.0 V 17.6	10.4pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
03	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 6	14.0%Valinor	9.5%market	+4.2pp	P 8.7 F 13.6 V 14.0	5.3pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 920 avg 3 books
04	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1	21.0%Valinor	16.9%market	+3.5pp	P 16.6 F 17.2 V 21.0	4.4pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
05	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1	11.6%Valinor	7.9%market	+3.4pp	P 6.6 F 11.1 V 11.6	4.9pp	1.033xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
06	Jakob Marsee MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCade Povich · slot 2	12.9%Valinor	9.4%market	+3.2pp	P 3.0 F 13.6 V 12.9	10.6pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
07	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 4	20.5%Valinor	17.2%market	+2.7pp	P 13.1 F 17.2 V 20.5	7.4pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
08	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3	19.9%Valinor	16.7%market	+2.5pp	P 17.9 F 26.0 V 19.9	8.0pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
09	Geraldo Perdomo AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3	11.8%Valinor	9.3%market	+2.2pp	P 9.6 F 17.2 V 11.8	7.6pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
10	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 5	15.8%Valinor	13.6%market	+1.6pp	P 13.2 F 14.2 V 15.8	2.6pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
11	Steven Kwan CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2	10.5%Valinor	8.7%market	+1.5pp	P 5.7 F 13.6 V 10.5	7.8pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
12	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1	12.2%Valinor	10.5%market	+1.3pp	P 3.3 F 6.6 V 12.2	8.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
13	Keibert Ruiz WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 5	11.4%Valinor	9.8%market	+1.2pp	P 5.5 F 14.2 V 11.4	8.8pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
14	Agustín Ramírez MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCade Povich · slot 4	16.1%Valinor	14.6%market	+1.0pp	P 11.4 F 15.7 V 16.1	4.8pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
15	Adley Rutschman BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 5	13.0%Valinor	11.9%market	+0.6pp	P 11.9 F 14.2 V 13.0	2.3pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
16	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3	17.3%Valinor	16.2%market	+0.4pp	P 13.7 F 17.2 V 17.3	3.6pp	1.033xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
17	Heriberto Hernández MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCade Povich · slot 6	12.8%Valinor	12.0%market	+0.4pp	P 8.8 F 11.4 V 12.8	4.1pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
18	Luis García Jr. WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 4	13.2%Valinor	12.4%market	+0.4pp	P 12.6 F 15.7 V 13.2	3.2pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
19	Carlos Santana AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5	14.2%Valinor	13.5%market	+0.1pp	P 8.8 F 13.4 V 14.2	5.3pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
20	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2	12.1%Valinor	11.7%market	-0.1pp	P 9.4 F 14.2 V 12.1	4.8pp	0.961xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
21	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5	13.1%Valinor	13.0%market	-0.4pp	P 8.9 F 15.7 V 13.1	6.8pp	0.961xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
22	Bryan Reynolds PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 5	13.5%Valinor	13.6%market	-0.6pp	P 11.7 F 14.2 V 13.5	2.5pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
23	Daniel Schneemann CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6	10.5%Valinor	10.7%market	-0.6pp	P 10.2 F 10.3 V 10.5	0.3pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 800 avg 3 books
24	Cj Abrams WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 1	13.9%Valinor	14.1%market	-0.8pp	P 15.9 F 17.9 V 13.9	4.1pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
25	Daylen Lile WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 3	10.8%Valinor	11.1%market	-0.8pp	P 4.5 F 11.4 V 10.8	6.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
26	Bo Naylor CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4	13.1%Valinor	13.4%market	-0.8pp	P 14.1 F 17.2 V 13.1	4.2pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
27	Ryan O'Hearn PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 3	12.3%Valinor	13.6%market	-1.3pp	P 13.6 F 17.9 V 12.3	5.6pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
28	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 4	15.1%Valinor	16.1%market	-1.6pp	P 16.1 F 17.9 V 15.1	2.8pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
29	Alec Bohm PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5	9.3%Valinor	10.7%market	-1.9pp	P 7.2 F 14.2 V 9.3	7.0pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
30	Brandon Marsh PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6	9.5%Valinor	11.0%market	-2.0pp	P 13.6 F 17.9 V 9.5	8.4pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
31	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4	12.7%Valinor	14.5%market	-2.3pp	P 11.5 F 17.9 V 12.7	6.4pp	0.961xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
32	Gunnar Henderson BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 1	15.9%Valinor	17.7%market	-2.4pp	P 15.5 F 15.5 V 15.9	0.4pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
33	Alec Burleson STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 3	11.0%Valinor	13.3%market	-2.8pp	P 13.8 F 17.9 V 11.0	6.9pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
34	Miguel Andujar SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 6	6.7%Valinor	9.2%market	-2.8pp	P 7.8 F 14.2 V 6.7	7.5pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 945 avg 3 books
35	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4	12.6%Valinor	15.0%market	-2.9pp	P 12.3 F 17.2 V 12.6	4.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
36	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1	12.6%Valinor	15.2%market	-3.2pp	P 19.8 F 17.9 V 12.6	7.3pp	0.961xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
37	Spencer Horwitz PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 6	8.5%Valinor	11.8%market	-3.4pp	P 11.3 F 15.7 V 8.5	7.2pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
38	Trea Turner PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1	11.4%Valinor	14.3%market	-3.4pp	P 12.1 F 15.7 V 11.4	4.4pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
39	Trevor Larnach MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 7	8.9%Valinor	12.5%market	-3.6pp	P 12.3 F 17.2 V 8.9	8.3pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
40	Nick Castellanos SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4	11.5%Valinor	14.9%market	-3.9pp	P 9.8 F 14.2 V 11.5	4.4pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
41	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 2	15.5%Valinor	18.9%market	-4.1pp	P 18.2 F 17.9 V 15.5	2.7pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
42	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2	21.5%Valinor	30.6%market	-10.2pp	P 17.9 F 17.9 V 21.5	3.6pp	1.033xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	DraftKings 215 avg 3 books
43	Kyle Schwarber PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3	13.6%Valinor	26.5%market	-13.9pp	P 15.6 F 17.2 V 13.6	3.7pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Strong Damageform	DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
44	Xavier Edwards MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCade Povich · slot 1	11.7%Valinor	7.7%market	+3.7pp	P 1.8 F 9.1 V 11.7	9.9pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45	Jake Mangum PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 1	10.8%Valinor	7.7%market	+2.8pp	P 2.0 F 9.1 V 10.8	8.9pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46	José Tena WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 6	10.3%Valinor	7.7%market	+2.3pp	P 2.8 F 15.7 V 10.3	12.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47	Victor Scott II STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 1	9.0%Valinor	7.7%market	+1.0pp	P 1.4 F 0.0 V 9.0	9.0pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48	Taylor Ward BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 4	17.3%Valinor	17.4%market	-0.7pp	P 15.0 F 17.9 V 17.3	2.9pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
49	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5	17.0%Valinor	17.4%market	-1.0pp	P 15.7 F 17.2 V 17.0	1.5pp	1.033xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
50	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5	14.1%Valinor	15.2%market	-1.7pp	P 9.3 F 14.2 V 14.1	4.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
51	James Wood WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson · slot 2	15.0%Valinor	16.8%market	-2.4pp	P 17.5 F 17.9 V 15.0	2.9pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
52	Iván Herrera STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 2	10.3%Valinor	12.5%market	-2.7pp	P 14.9 F 17.9 V 10.3	7.6pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
53	Corbin Carroll AZ Lineup pending Triple	AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1	15.6%Valinor	17.9%market	-2.9pp	P 17.9 F 17.9 V 15.6	2.3pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
54	Adolis García PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4	14.8%Valinor	17.4%market	-3.2pp	P 10.9 F 14.2 V 14.8	4.0pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
55	Tyler O'Neill BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 3	14.3%Valinor	17.1%market	-3.4pp	P 13.7 F 17.2 V 14.3	3.5pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
56	Ketel Marte AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2	17.7%Valinor	20.5%market	-3.6pp	P 15.2 F 17.2 V 17.7	2.5pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
57	Kyle Manzardo CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3	13.8%Valinor	17.1%market	-3.9pp	P 15.4 F 15.7 V 13.8	1.9pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
58	Ramón Laureano SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5	11.2%Valinor	14.9%market	-4.2pp	P 14.4 F 17.9 V 11.2	6.7pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
59	Mark Vientos NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 6	12.5%Valinor	16.4%market	-4.5pp	P 12.8 F 13.4 V 12.5	0.9pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
60	Jackson Merrill SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3	10.7%Valinor	14.8%market	-4.6pp	P 10.0 F 11.1 V 10.7	1.1pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
61	Matt Wallner MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2	14.7%Valinor	19.5%market	-5.5pp	P 15.1 F 17.9 V 14.7	3.2pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 395 avg 3 books
62	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending Triple	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4	18.0%Valinor	23.0%market	-5.8pp	P 17.5 F 17.9 V 18.0	0.4pp	1.033xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 320 avg 3 books
63	José Ramírez CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1	14.6%Valinor	19.9%market	-6.0pp	P 18.2 F 17.9 V 14.6	3.6pp	1.075xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
64	Bryce Harper PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2	13.7%Valinor	19.1%market	-6.1pp	P 15.0 F 17.9 V 13.7	4.2pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
65	Fernando Tatis Jr. SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1	11.9%Valinor	17.4%market	-6.1pp	P 16.4 F 17.9 V 11.9	6.0pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
66	Pete Alonso BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 2	16.2%Valinor	22.4%market	-7.0pp	P 14.3 F 15.5 V 16.2	1.9pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
67	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending Triple	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3	14.1%Valinor	20.5%market	-7.1pp	P 15.5 F 17.9 V 14.1	3.8pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
68	Marcell Ozuna PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 2	13.9%Valinor	20.5%market	-7.4pp	P 10.6 F 13.6 V 13.9	3.3pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
69	Brandon Lowe PIT Lineup pending Triple	PIT vs AZZac Gallen · slot 4	12.9%Valinor	19.9%market	-7.8pp	P 16.8 F 17.2 V 12.9	4.4pp	0.998xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
70	Manny Machado SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 2	12.0%Valinor	19.1%market	-7.8pp	P 12.6 F 17.2 V 12.0	5.2pp	0.930xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
71	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending Triple	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3	14.7%Valinor	22.0%market	-8.1pp	P 14.9 F 15.7 V 14.7	1.0pp	0.961xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
72	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs COLJose Quintana · slot 1	14.9%Valinor	22.8%market	-8.6pp	P 17.1 F 26.0 V 14.9	11.1pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 325 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Bo BichetteNYM vs COL · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Adley RutschmanBAL vs MIA · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Francisco LindorNYM vs COL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Marcus SemienNYM vs COL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Gunnar HendersonBAL vs MIA · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple5cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.