Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-05-14 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
78
Matched
234
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-05-14 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
STL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
26.0%Fangorn 13.1%market +12.9pp
P 20.1
F 26.0
V 12.4
13.6pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
26.0%Fangorn 14.0%market +11.9pp
P 17.2
F 26.0
V 14.4
11.6pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
MIL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 2
26.0%Fangorn 16.4%market +9.5pp
P 15.3
F 26.0
V 12.6
13.4pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 6
17.9%Fangorn 9.8%market +8.2pp
P 9.5
F 17.9
V 10.2
8.4pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 6
17.2%Fangorn 9.1%market +8.1pp
P 8.9
F 17.2
V 7.6
9.6pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
MIL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 10.0%market +7.9pp
P 16.0
F 17.9
V 10.4
7.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
07 IL10
STL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 10.4%market +7.5pp
P 13.8
F 17.9
V 11.1
6.8pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
08 IL10
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
17.9%Fangorn 11.1%market +6.8pp
P 12.9
F 17.9
V 11.8
6.1pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 11.2%market +6.7pp
P 13.1
F 17.9
V 12.3
5.6pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
NYM vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 11.7%market +6.2pp
P 13.7
F 17.9
V 10.8
7.2pp 1.057xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
11 IL10
BOS vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
17.2%Fangorn 11.1%market +6.1pp
P 12.9
F 17.2
V 10.3
6.9pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
MIL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 12.5%market +4.7pp
P 12.0
F 17.2
V 12.4
5.2pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
19.6%Fangorn 14.9%market +4.7pp
P 15.5
F 19.6
V 14.4
5.1pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 6
15.7%Fangorn 11.3%market +4.4pp
P 11.0
F 15.7
V 9.8
5.9pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 13.0%market +4.2pp
P 13.3
F 17.2
V 13.1
4.1pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
16 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 5
17.2%Fangorn 13.1%market +4.1pp
P 11.2
F 17.2
V 10.8
6.4pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 13.8%market +4.1pp
P 14.4
F 17.9
V 14.8
3.5pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 6
17.2%Fangorn 13.5%market +3.8pp
P 14.7
F 17.2
V 12.2
5.1pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 15.0%market +2.9pp
P 12.1
F 17.9
V 16.5
5.9pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
20 IL10
CWS vs KCKris Bubic · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.6pp
P 10.8
F 14.2
V 6.2
8.0pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
21
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 5
13.6%Fangorn 11.1%market +2.5pp
P 6.5
F 13.6
V 8.6
7.0pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 6
13.4%Fangorn 10.9%market +2.5pp
P 3.5
F 13.4
V 12.6
9.8pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
BOS vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
13.4%Fangorn 10.9%market +2.5pp
P 11.5
F 13.4
V 9.3
4.0pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
17.2%Fangorn 15.2%market +2.0pp
P 12.7
F 17.2
V 15.0
4.5pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
CHC vs ATLChris Sale · slot 6
15.5%Fangorn 13.6%market +1.9pp
P 13.8
F 15.5
V 10.3
5.2pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.7pp
P 13.9
F 17.9
V 15.9
4.0pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
27 IL10
NYM vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.7pp
P 15.9
F 17.9
V 13.3
4.6pp 1.057xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 17.0%market +0.9pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 13.0
4.9pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 13.5%market +0.8pp
P 12.5
F 14.2
V 14.0
1.7pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 13.5%market +0.8pp
P 11.4
F 14.2
V 14.1
2.8pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
31 Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 17.2%market +0.8pp
P 16.9
F 17.9
V 15.9
2.0pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
32
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 14.8%market +0.7pp
P 13.1
F 15.5
V 11.8
3.7pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
NYM vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 13.8%market -0.4pp
P 11.8
F 13.4
V 12.7
1.5pp 1.057xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
17.2%Fangorn 18.2%market -1.0pp
P 13.3
F 17.2
V 15.7
3.9pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 15.4%market -1.2pp
P 10.4
F 14.2
V 12.6
3.8pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
36 Lineup pending
PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
14.2%Fangorn 15.4%market -1.2pp
P 11.4
F 14.2
V 10.1
4.1pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
37 IL10
NYM vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 19.4%market -1.5pp
P 17.6
F 17.9
V 14.0
3.9pp 1.057xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
11.1%Fangorn 15.3%market -4.1pp
P 10.6
F 11.1
V 12.1
1.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
39 IL10
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
2.8%Fangorn 9.2%market -6.4pp
P 2.7
F 2.8
V 8.9
6.2pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 1
11.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 1.9
F 11.1
V 10.8
9.1pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 14.7%market +3.2pp
P 15.3
F 17.9
V 11.5
6.4pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
42
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
26.0%Fangorn 22.9%market +3.1pp
P 17.6
F 26.0
V 13.2
12.8pp 1.057xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 320 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 7
10.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.7pp
P 2.1
F 10.3
V 7.0
8.2pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
CWS vs KCKris Bubic · slot 6
10.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.7pp
P 1.8
F 10.3
V 5.4
8.6pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
CWS vs KCKris Bubic · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.5pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 6.2
8.0pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 15.3%market +1.9pp
P 10.5
F 17.2
V 14.3
6.7pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 15.4%market +1.8pp
P 13.8
F 17.2
V 12.7
4.5pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
48 IL10
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 1
9.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 1.8
F 9.1
V 9.7
7.9pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
CHC vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
9.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 4.1
F 9.1
V 8.7
5.0pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 1
11.1%Fangorn 9.8%market +1.3pp
P 4.5
F 11.1
V 10.9
6.7pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
BOS vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 16.5%market -1.0pp
P 12.0
F 15.5
V 12.6
3.5pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 5
11.4%Fangorn 12.6%market -1.1pp
P 6.6
F 11.4
V 13.3
6.7pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
15.7%Fangorn 17.0%market -1.2pp
P 12.5
F 15.7
V 10.8
4.9pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
CHC vs ATLChris Sale · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 15.9%market -1.7pp
P 11.6
F 14.2
V 13.4
2.7pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 16.1%market -1.9pp
P 9.8
F 14.2
V 13.2
4.4pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 2
15.7%Fangorn 18.0%market -2.3pp
P 12.1
F 15.7
V 15.3
3.6pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2
17.2%Fangorn 19.6%market -2.4pp
P 13.4
F 17.2
V 14.2
3.8pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 4
10.3%Fangorn 13.1%market -2.7pp
P 5.9
F 10.3
V 13.1
7.3pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -2.9pp
P 13.6
F 17.9
V 17.1
4.4pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 18.9%market -3.4pp
P 12.3
F 15.5
V 12.4
3.2pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 4
13.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.4pp
P 9.7
F 13.6
V 15.5
5.9pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -3.5pp
P 13.9
F 14.2
V 13.3
0.9pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
63 IL10
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 19.4%market -3.9pp
P 12.5
F 15.5
V 16.4
3.9pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
17.2%Fangorn 21.5%market -4.3pp
P 13.6
F 17.2
V 14.3
3.6pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 18.7%market -4.5pp
P 10.3
F 14.2
V 12.8
3.9pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 4
15.7%Fangorn 20.4%market -4.7pp
P 16.3
F 15.7
V 13.8
2.5pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
14.2%Fangorn 19.1%market -4.8pp
P 13.5
F 14.2
V 15.4
1.9pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.0pp
P 10.1
F 13.4
V 14.2
4.1pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
15.7%Fangorn 20.8%market -5.1pp
P 12.7
F 15.7
V 14.2
3.0pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
CWS vs KCKris Bubic · slot 1
2.8%Fangorn 8.0%market -5.2pp
P 1.5
F 2.8
V 6.7
5.3pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
71
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.9pp
P 10.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.9pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
72 Lineup pending
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 2
15.7%Fangorn 21.7%market -6.0pp
P 14.4
F 15.7
V 15.4
1.3pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 2
14.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -6.6pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 14.1
1.1pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
74 Lineup pending
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.7pp
P 10.3
F 13.4
V 14.0
3.6pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
75 Lineup pending
PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
14.2%Fangorn 26.0%market -11.8pp
P 12.8
F 14.2
V 12.8
1.4pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
76 IL10
SEA vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 3
14.2%Fangorn 26.3%market -12.1pp
P 19.2
F 14.2
V 15.0
5.0pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
77 Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
17.2%Fangorn 29.8%market -12.6pp
P 15.5
F 17.2
V 23.4
7.9pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
13.6%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.5pp
P 13.3
F 13.6
V 14.2
0.9pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

778 sample flags
Status1793roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.