Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-05-14 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
78
Matched
234
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-05-14 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 6
12.6%Valinor 10.9%market +1.3pp
P 3.5
F 13.4
V 12.6
9.8pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
16.5%Valinor 15.0%market +0.9pp
P 12.1
F 17.9
V 16.5
5.9pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
12.3%Valinor 11.2%market +0.8pp
P 13.1
F 17.9
V 12.3
5.6pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 5
14.8%Valinor 13.8%market +0.4pp
P 14.4
F 17.9
V 14.8
3.5pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
05 IL10
STL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
11.1%Valinor 10.4%market +0.4pp
P 13.8
F 17.9
V 11.1
6.8pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
06 IL10
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
11.8%Valinor 11.1%market +0.3pp
P 12.9
F 17.9
V 11.8
6.1pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 6
10.2%Valinor 9.8%market +0.1pp
P 9.5
F 17.9
V 10.2
8.4pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 5
14.1%Valinor 13.5%market +0.1pp
P 11.4
F 14.2
V 14.1
2.8pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 5
14.0%Valinor 14.1%market -0.1pp
P 12.5
F 14.2
V 14.0
1.7pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
MIL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 1
10.4%Valinor 10.1%market -0.2pp
P 16.0
F 17.9
V 10.4
7.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
14.4%Valinor 14.2%market -0.3pp
P 17.2
F 26.0
V 14.4
11.6pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
12 IL10
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
8.9%Valinor 8.9%market -0.3pp
P 2.7
F 2.8
V 8.9
6.2pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 980 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 3
13.1%Valinor 13.6%market -0.5pp
P 13.3
F 17.2
V 13.1
4.1pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
MIL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 3
12.4%Valinor 12.5%market -0.6pp
P 12.0
F 17.2
V 12.4
5.2pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
15.0%Valinor 15.5%market -1.0pp
P 12.7
F 17.2
V 15.0
4.5pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
16 Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 4
15.9%Valinor 16.4%market -1.0pp
P 13.9
F 17.9
V 15.9
4.0pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
NYM vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
12.7%Valinor 13.3%market -1.1pp
P 11.8
F 13.4
V 12.7
1.5pp 1.057xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
14.4%Valinor 15.1%market -1.2pp
P 15.5
F 19.6
V 14.4
5.1pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
19 IL10
BOS vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
10.3%Valinor 11.2%market -1.3pp
P 12.9
F 17.2
V 10.3
6.9pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
20 Lineup pending
STL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
12.4%Valinor 13.2%market -1.3pp
P 20.1
F 26.0
V 12.4
13.6pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
21 Lineup pending
NYM vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3
10.8%Valinor 11.7%market -1.5pp
P 13.7
F 17.9
V 10.8
7.2pp 1.057xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 6
7.6%Valinor 9.2%market -1.9pp
P 8.9
F 17.2
V 7.6
9.6pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 945 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 6
12.2%Valinor 13.6%market -1.9pp
P 14.7
F 17.2
V 12.2
5.1pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
BOS vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
9.3%Valinor 10.9%market -2.0pp
P 11.5
F 13.4
V 9.3
4.0pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 780 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 6
9.8%Valinor 11.8%market -2.1pp
P 11.0
F 15.7
V 9.8
5.9pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 1
15.9%Valinor 17.5%market -2.3pp
P 16.9
F 17.9
V 15.9
2.0pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
27 Lineup pending
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
15.7%Valinor 17.7%market -2.6pp
P 13.3
F 17.2
V 15.7
3.9pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 4
12.6%Valinor 14.9%market -2.8pp
P 10.4
F 14.2
V 12.6
3.8pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 5
10.8%Valinor 13.2%market -2.9pp
P 11.2
F 17.2
V 10.8
6.4pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
30
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 5
8.6%Valinor 11.1%market -2.9pp
P 6.5
F 13.6
V 8.6
7.0pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
31 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
12.1%Valinor 14.8%market -3.2pp
P 10.6
F 11.1
V 12.1
1.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
32 IL10
NYM vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
13.3%Valinor 16.5%market -3.8pp
P 15.9
F 17.9
V 13.3
4.6pp 1.057xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
MIL vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 2
12.6%Valinor 16.7%market -4.7pp
P 15.3
F 26.0
V 12.6
13.4pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
10.1%Valinor 14.8%market -5.3pp
P 11.4
F 14.2
V 10.1
4.1pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
35 IL10
NYM vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2
14.0%Valinor 18.9%market -5.6pp
P 17.6
F 17.9
V 14.0
3.9pp 1.057xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
36 IL10
CWS vs KCKris Bubic · slot 5
6.2%Valinor 12.2%market -6.0pp
P 10.8
F 14.2
V 6.2
8.0pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
37 Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
23.4%Valinor 29.3%market -6.9pp
P 15.5
F 17.2
V 23.4
7.9pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
12.8%Valinor 25.5%market -13.5pp
P 12.8
F 14.2
V 12.8
1.4pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 280 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 1
10.8%Valinor 7.7%market +2.8pp
P 1.9
F 11.1
V 10.8
9.1pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40 IL10
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 1
9.7%Valinor 7.7%market +1.7pp
P 1.8
F 9.1
V 9.7
7.9pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 5
13.3%Valinor 12.0%market +0.8pp
P 6.6
F 11.4
V 13.3
6.7pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 1
10.9%Valinor 9.8%market +0.7pp
P 4.5
F 11.1
V 10.9
6.7pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
CHC vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
8.7%Valinor 7.7%market +0.7pp
P 4.1
F 9.1
V 8.7
5.0pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 4
13.1%Valinor 12.5%market +0.1pp
P 5.9
F 10.3
V 13.1
7.3pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 7
7.0%Valinor 7.7%market -1.0pp
P 2.1
F 10.3
V 7.0
8.2pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
CWS vs KCKris Bubic · slot 1
6.7%Valinor 7.7%market -1.3pp
P 1.5
F 2.8
V 6.7
5.3pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 4
15.5%Valinor 16.4%market -1.4pp
P 9.7
F 13.6
V 15.5
5.9pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 3
14.3%Valinor 15.6%market -1.8pp
P 10.5
F 17.2
V 14.3
6.7pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
CHC vs ATLChris Sale · slot 5
13.4%Valinor 15.3%market -2.5pp
P 11.6
F 14.2
V 13.4
2.7pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
CWS vs KCKris Bubic · slot 6
5.4%Valinor 7.7%market -2.6pp
P 1.8
F 10.3
V 5.4
8.6pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 2
15.3%Valinor 17.5%market -2.9pp
P 12.1
F 15.7
V 15.3
3.6pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
52 IL10
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 1
16.4%Valinor 18.8%market -3.0pp
P 12.5
F 15.5
V 16.4
3.9pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
13.2%Valinor 15.7%market -3.0pp
P 9.8
F 14.2
V 13.2
4.4pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3
12.7%Valinor 15.6%market -3.5pp
P 13.8
F 17.2
V 12.7
4.5pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
55
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4
11.8%Valinor 15.0%market -3.7pp
P 13.1
F 15.5
V 11.8
3.7pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
15.4%Valinor 18.6%market -3.9pp
P 13.5
F 14.2
V 15.4
1.9pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5
11.5%Valinor 14.9%market -3.9pp
P 15.3
F 17.9
V 11.5
6.4pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
BOS vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
12.6%Valinor 16.0%market -3.9pp
P 12.0
F 15.5
V 12.6
3.5pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
HOU vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
17.1%Valinor 20.3%market -3.9pp
P 13.6
F 17.9
V 17.1
4.4pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
CHC vs ATLChris Sale · slot 6
10.3%Valinor 13.8%market -4.0pp
P 13.8
F 15.5
V 10.3
5.2pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 17.9%market -4.3pp
P 10.1
F 13.4
V 14.2
4.1pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 4
13.3%Valinor 17.1%market -4.4pp
P 13.9
F 14.2
V 13.3
0.9pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
13.0%Valinor 17.4%market -5.0pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 13.0
4.9pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2
14.2%Valinor 19.1%market -5.5pp
P 13.4
F 17.2
V 14.2
3.8pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
CWS vs KCKris Bubic · slot 4
6.2%Valinor 11.7%market -6.0pp
P 10.1
F 14.2
V 6.2
8.0pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
12.8%Valinor 18.2%market -6.0pp
P 10.3
F 14.2
V 12.8
3.9pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
67
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
13.4%Valinor 18.8%market -6.1pp
P 10.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.9pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
LAD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
10.8%Valinor 16.5%market -6.3pp
P 12.5
F 15.7
V 10.8
4.9pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
ATL vs CHCBen Brown · slot 2
15.4%Valinor 21.2%market -6.6pp
P 14.4
F 15.7
V 15.4
1.3pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
12.4%Valinor 18.4%market -6.7pp
P 12.3
F 15.5
V 12.4
3.2pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 4
13.8%Valinor 19.9%market -6.8pp
P 16.3
F 15.7
V 13.8
2.5pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
72 Lineup pending
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
14.2%Valinor 20.3%market -6.8pp
P 12.7
F 15.7
V 14.2
3.0pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 2
14.1%Valinor 20.3%market -6.9pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 14.1
1.1pp 0.929xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
74 Lineup pending
PIT vs COLChase Dollander · slot 2
14.0%Valinor 20.5%market -7.3pp
P 10.3
F 13.4
V 14.0
3.6pp 0.917xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
75 Lineup pending
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
14.3%Valinor 21.0%market -7.4pp
P 13.6
F 17.2
V 14.3
3.6pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 360 avg 3 books
76
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
13.2%Valinor 23.6%market -11.2pp
P 17.6
F 26.0
V 13.2
12.8pp 1.057xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 310 avg 3 books
77 IL10
SEA vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 3
15.0%Valinor 25.8%market -11.6pp
P 19.2
F 14.2
V 15.0
5.0pp 1.146xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
14.2%Valinor 26.5%market -13.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.6
V 14.2
0.9pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books

Data context

778 sample flags
Status1793roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.