Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-06-06 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
81
Matched
285
Lineups
234
HR BOARD 2026-06-06 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 11.8%market +9.7pp
P 22.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.3pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
02 IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
15.5%Valinor 10.5%market +9.3pp
P 17.7
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.2pp 1.170xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
STL vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5
17.9%Valinor 10.4%market +8.5pp
P 18.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.6pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
04 IN
PIT vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 13.0%market +8.0pp
P 20.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.2pp 1.127xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
05 IN
PIT vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 5
15.7%Valinor 13.5%market +7.8pp
P 19.6
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.8pp 1.127xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
15.7%Valinor 8.7%market +7.5pp
P 16.2
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.5pp 1.170xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
14.2%Valinor 9.8%market +7.4pp
P 15.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.4pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
08 IN
PIT vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 6
17.9%Valinor 11.3%market +7.4pp
P 17.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.8pp 1.127xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 755 avg 3 books
09 IN
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
14.2%Valinor 10.9%market +7.0pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.9pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
10 IN
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
13.6%Valinor 12.5%market +6.9pp
P 17.8
F 13.6
V 13.6
4.2pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
NYM vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 11.7%market +6.9pp
P 20.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
19.6%Valinor 15.0%market +6.8pp
P 23.1
F 19.6
V 19.6
3.5pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
13 IN
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 14.4%market +6.5pp
P 21.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.3pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
14 IN
AZ vs WSHZack Littell · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 9.3%market +6.5pp
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
15 IN
STL vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
26.0%Valinor 13.1%market +6.4pp
P 26.5
F 26.0
V 26.0
0.5pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
16 IN
SEA vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
17.9%Valinor 13.8%market +6.2pp
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.1pp 1.170xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
17.2%Valinor 13.0%market +6.0pp
P 17.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.1pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
18 IN
CLE vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 6
9.1%Valinor 10.6%market +5.8pp
P 15.1
F 9.1
V 9.1
6.0pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
19 IN
SEA vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +5.7pp
P 21.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.7pp 1.170xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
20 Lineup pending
AZ vs WSHZack Littell · slot 5
13.4%Valinor 13.5%market +5.4pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
21
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 13.3%market +5.1pp
P 19.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
22 IN
TEX vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 6
17.9%Valinor 11.0%market +5.0pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.3pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
23 IN
TEX vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 14.4%market +5.0pp
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
24 IN
TOR vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
17.9%Valinor 12.3%market +5.0pp
P 15.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.1pp 1.059xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
NYM vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 5
13.4%Valinor 13.2%market +4.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
1.6pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
26 IN
SEA vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 17.2%market +4.8pp
P 22.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.9pp 1.170xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
27 IN
TEX vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 15.6%market +4.6pp
P 21.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.3pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
28 IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
26.0%Valinor 17.6%market +4.6pp
P 24.1
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.9pp 1.170xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
29 IN
TOR vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 6
17.9%Valinor 9.1%market +4.5pp
P 17.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.8pp 1.059xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
30 IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 15.2%market +4.3pp
P 21.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.9pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
31 IN
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 9.7%market +4.2pp
P 12.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
32 IN
CLE vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 2
13.4%Valinor 8.7%market +4.1pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
33 IN
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
10.3%Valinor 10.5%market +4.1pp
P 17.7
F 10.3
V 10.3
7.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
34 IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +4.1pp
P 22.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.5pp 1.170xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
35 IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
11.1%Valinor 7.9%market +3.8pp
P 12.8
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.7pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
36 Lineup pending
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 5
13.4%Valinor 12.5%market +3.8pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.3pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
37 Lineup pending
LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 2
17.2%Valinor 16.2%market +3.7pp
P 20.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.7pp 0.954xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
38 IN
AZ vs WSHZack Littell · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 17.5%market +3.5pp
P 22.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
39 IN
BOS vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 15.5%market +3.3pp
P 22.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.2pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
40 IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1
17.2%Valinor 16.9%market +3.1pp
P 20.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
41 IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3
26.0%Valinor 16.7%market +3.0pp
P 22.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.4pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
42 IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 16.2%market +3.0pp
P 20.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.7pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
43 IN
TEX vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
15.5%Valinor 14.1%market +2.9pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
44
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
15.5%Valinor 14.8%market +2.7pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.1pp 0.955xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 5
15.5%Valinor 15.4%market +2.3pp
P 18.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.9pp 0.954xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
46 IN
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 15.4%market +2.3pp
P 17.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.1pp 0.955xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
NYM vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +2.2pp
P 18.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.9pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
48 IN
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 7
10.3%Valinor 7.7%market +2.1pp
P 10.8
F 10.3
V 10.3
0.4pp 0.955xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49 IN
TOR vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +1.9pp
P 17.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.0pp 1.059xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
14.2%Valinor 13.1%market +1.9pp
P 15.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.2pp 0.955xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
LAA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 7
10.3%Valinor 8.5%market +1.8pp
P 10.6
F 10.3
V 10.3
0.2pp 0.954xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
52 IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 19.2%market +1.8pp
P 19.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.4pp 1.170xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 400 avg 3 books
53 IN
TOR vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
17.2%Valinor 16.7%market +1.4pp
P 19.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.2pp 1.059xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
PIT vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 1
11.1%Valinor 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 11.5
F 11.1
V 11.1
0.5pp 1.127xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
55 IN
WSH vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 15.9%market +1.3pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
56 IN
CLE vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 19.4%market +1.3pp
P 20.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.8pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
57 IN
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 14.6%market +1.2pp
P 14.7
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.5pp 0.955xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
58 IN
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 1
11.1%Valinor 7.7%market +1.2pp
P 9.9
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.3pp 0.955xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4
17.2%Valinor 17.2%market +1.2pp
P 19.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
60 IN
PIT vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 19.4%market +1.0pp
P 22.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.4pp 1.127xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
61 IN
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 16.7%market +0.8pp
P 19.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.8pp 0.955xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
PIT vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 2
14.2%Valinor 20.0%market +0.7pp
P 18.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.3pp 1.127xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
63 IN
CLE vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 3
15.5%Valinor 16.7%market +0.6pp
P 19.0
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 3
15.7%Valinor 18.1%market +0.6pp
P 19.0
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.3pp 0.954xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
TOR vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 16.7%market +0.4pp
P 16.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.2pp 1.059xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
66 IN
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 22.0%market -0.3pp
P 20.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.0pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
67 IN
NYY vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 5
17.2%Valinor 17.4%market -0.4pp
P 18.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.8pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
68 IN
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 2
15.5%Valinor 20.3%market -0.5pp
P 19.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.1pp 0.955xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
69
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
17.2%Valinor 16.7%market -0.5pp
P 18.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.8pp 0.954xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
70 IN
AZ vs WSHZack Littell · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 20.5%market -0.6pp
P 20.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
71 IN
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 17.4%market -0.8pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.8pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
72 Lineup pending
LAA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 15.5%market -1.5pp
P 13.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 0.954xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
73 IN
TEX vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
17.2%Valinor 22.0%market -1.6pp
P 18.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.3pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
74 IN
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 18.7%market -1.7pp
P 18.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.0pp 0.955xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
75 IN
CHC vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
4.7%Valinor 7.7%market -1.7pp
P 6.9
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.1pp 0.955xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
76 IN
TEX vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
13.4%Valinor 19.2%market -1.9pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.1pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
77
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 6
13.6%Valinor 19.2%market -2.7pp
P 15.0
F 13.6
V 13.6
1.5pp 0.954xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
78
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 1
26.0%Valinor 24.1%market -3.0pp
P 20.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
5.6pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
79 Lineup pending
LAA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 19.2%market -3.2pp
P 17.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.7pp 0.954xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
80
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
15.5%Valinor 19.6%market -4.7pp
P 15.3
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.2pp 0.954xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
81 Lineup pending
LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 29.8%market -9.7pp
P 18.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.8pp 0.954xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1599roster/transaction rows
Lineups234confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.