Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-06-10 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
69
Matched
243
Lineups
243
HR BOARD 2026-06-10 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6
 17.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +6.9pp
P 19.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
02
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 6
 17.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +6.9pp
P 16.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
03
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 15.7%Fangorn 9.3%market +6.4pp
P 16.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.0pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
04
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 11.7%market +6.2pp
P 18.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.7pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
05
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 9.9%market +5.6pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
06
Steven Kwan CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 8.3%market +5.0pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.8pp 1.102xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books
07
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 10.7%market +4.8pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.3pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
08
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 13.3%market +4.6pp
P 19.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.7pp 0.990xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
09
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
 17.2%Fangorn 13.1%market +4.1pp
P 18.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.6pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
10
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2
 14.2%Fangorn 10.1%market +4.1pp
P 14.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.4pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
11
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
 17.9%Fangorn 13.8%market +4.1pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.3pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
12
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4
 15.7%Fangorn 11.7%market +4.0pp
P 15.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.1pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
13
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 5
 13.6%Fangorn 9.7%market +3.9pp
P 11.8
F 13.6
V 13.6
1.8pp 0.990xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
14
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 14.8%market +3.1pp
P 21.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.5pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
15
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 14.1%market +3.1pp
P 20.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.2pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
16
Elly De La Cruz CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 15.0%market +2.9pp
P 20.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.1pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
17
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 14.4%market +2.8pp
P 20.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.1pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
18
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
 17.2%Fangorn 14.6%market +2.6pp
P 17.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.7pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
19
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 14.2%Fangorn 11.8%market +2.4pp
P 17.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.7pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
20
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 11.9%market +2.3pp
P 15.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.9pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
21
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 15.6%market +2.3pp
P 20.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.7pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
22
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 12.3%market +1.9pp
P 13.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.8pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
23
Spencer Steer CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 13.7%market +1.8pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.4pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
24
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 12.9%market +1.3pp
P 20.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
6.1pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
25
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.0pp
P 19.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.6pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
26
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 13.9%market -0.5pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
27
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 18.0%market -0.8pp
P 21.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.8pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
28
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.2%market -0.8pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
1.2pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
29
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -1.1pp
P 20.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.5pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
30
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 19.6%market -1.7pp
P 22.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.0pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
31
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 3
 9.1%Fangorn 11.0%market -1.9pp
P 16.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
7.7pp 0.990xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
32
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
 11.4%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.4pp
P 14.6
F 11.4
V 11.4
3.2pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
33
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 20.4%market -2.5pp
P 22.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.9pp 1.102xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
34
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 14.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.1pp
P 18.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.2pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
35
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 6
 9.1%Fangorn 13.4%market -4.3pp
P 14.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
5.7pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
36
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 11.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -4.8pp
P 18.1
F 11.4
V 11.4
6.6pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
37
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 26.0%Fangorn 17.8%market +8.2pp
P 23.0
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.0pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
38
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 26.0%Fangorn 18.5%market +7.5pp
P 23.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 420 avg 3 books
39
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 11.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.7pp
P 11.1
F 11.4
V 11.4
0.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 6
 11.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.7pp
P 9.7
F 11.4
V 11.4
1.7pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 26.0%Fangorn 22.9%market +3.1pp
P 19.9
F 26.0
V 26.0
6.0pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 320 avg 3 books
42
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 15.9%market +2.0pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.0pp 0.990xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
43
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 16.0%market +1.9pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.2pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
44
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.7pp
P 18.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.4pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
45
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 15.5%market +1.7pp
P 19.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
46
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1
 9.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 7.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
1.3pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 14.1%market +1.4pp
P 13.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
48
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 16.7%market +1.2pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.0pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
49
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 16.4%market +0.8pp
P 18.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.5pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
50
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 17.5%market +0.5pp
P 21.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.6pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
51
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 18.0%market -0.8pp
P 19.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.6pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
52
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -1.1pp
P 20.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.5pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
53
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 15.4%market -1.2pp
P 16.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.3pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
54
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 18.7%market -1.5pp
P 19.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.5pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
55
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 15.9%market -1.7pp
P 18.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.4pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
56
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.2pp
P 15.1
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.4pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
57
Adolis García PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4
 15.7%Fangorn 18.0%market -2.3pp
P 17.3
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.6pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
58
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 16.7%market -2.4pp
P 13.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.8pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
59
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 4.7%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.3pp
P 7.3
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.6pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
60
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 18.9%market -3.4pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.1pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
61
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 21.1%market -3.8pp
P 19.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.2pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
62
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 22.0%market -4.1pp
P 17.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.4pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
63
Jake Burger TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.9pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
64
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 4.7%Fangorn 11.4%market -6.7pp
P 13.8
F 4.7
V 4.7
9.0pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
65
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 15.7%Fangorn 22.5%market -6.7pp
P 17.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.0pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
66
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -7.5pp
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.0pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
67
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2
 14.2%Fangorn 23.0%market -8.8pp
P 18.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.2pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
68
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 27.0%market -9.1pp
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.0pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
69
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 26.3%market -12.1pp
P 21.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
6.8pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1606roster/transaction rows
Lineups243confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.