Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-06-10 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
69
Matched
243
Lineups
243
HR BOARD 2026-06-10 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 12.9%market +9.3pp
P 20.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
6.1pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
02
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 15.5%Valinor 9.9%market +8.7pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
03
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 11.0%market +8.0pp
P 16.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
04
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
 15.5%Valinor 10.7%market +7.8pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.3pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
05
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 14.1%market +6.8pp
P 20.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.2pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
06
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 11.9%market +6.8pp
P 15.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.9pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
07
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 14.8%market +6.6pp
P 21.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.5pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
08
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 11.8%market +5.5pp
P 17.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.7pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
09
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
 17.2%Valinor 13.1%market +5.3pp
P 18.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.6pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
10
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 11.7%market +5.2pp
P 18.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.7pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
11
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 13.3%market +5.1pp
P 19.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.7pp 0.990xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
12
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 14.6%market +4.8pp
P 17.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.7pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
13
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
 17.9%Valinor 13.8%market +4.5pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.3pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
14
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
 11.4%Valinor 13.2%market +4.5pp
P 14.6
F 11.4
V 11.4
3.2pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
15
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 11.0%market +4.4pp
P 19.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
16
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4
 15.7%Valinor 11.7%market +4.4pp
P 15.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.1pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
17
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 14.4%market +4.4pp
P 20.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.1pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
18
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 13.4%Valinor 13.5%market +4.3pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
1.2pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
19
Steven Kwan CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
 13.4%Valinor 8.3%market +4.3pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.8pp 1.102xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books
20
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 13.4%Valinor 13.3%market +4.1pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
21
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 15.6%market +4.0pp
P 20.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.7pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
22
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 16.2%market +3.9pp
P 19.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.6pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
23
Elly De La Cruz CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 15.0%market +3.8pp
P 20.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.1pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
24
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 15.7%Valinor 9.3%market +3.5pp
P 16.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.0pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
25
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 5
 13.6%Valinor 9.7%market +3.5pp
P 11.8
F 13.6
V 13.6
1.8pp 0.990xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
26
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 19.4%market +3.5pp
P 22.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.9pp 1.102xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
27
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 18.7%market +3.3pp
P 22.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.0pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 415 avg 3 books
28
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 17.3%market +3.3pp
P 20.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.5pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
29
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 11.4%Valinor 15.5%market +3.3pp
P 18.1
F 11.4
V 11.4
6.6pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
30
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 3
 9.1%Valinor 10.5%market +3.3pp
P 16.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
7.7pp 0.990xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
31
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 10.1%market +3.1pp
P 14.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.4pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
32
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 6
 9.1%Valinor 12.8%market +3.0pp
P 14.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
5.7pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
33
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 17.2%market +2.9pp
P 21.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.8pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
34
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 17.3%market +2.9pp
P 18.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.2pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
35
Spencer Steer CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 15.5%Valinor 13.7%market +2.8pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.4pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
36
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 12.3%market +2.6pp
P 13.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.8pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
37
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 14.7%market +2.5pp
P 16.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.3pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
38
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 16.7%market +2.5pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.0pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
39
Adolis García PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4
 15.7%Valinor 17.0%market +2.5pp
P 17.3
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.6pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
40
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 17.5%market +2.3pp
P 21.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.6pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
41
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
 15.5%Valinor 14.1%market +2.3pp
P 13.9
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
42
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 26.0%Valinor 17.8%market +2.1pp
P 23.0
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.0pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
43
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 11.4%Valinor 7.7%market +2.1pp
P 11.1
F 11.4
V 11.4
0.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 15.2%market +2.0pp
P 18.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.4pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
45
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 17.5%market +1.8pp
P 20.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.5pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
46
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +1.8pp
P 18.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.4pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
47
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 6
 11.4%Valinor 7.7%market +1.6pp
P 9.7
F 11.4
V 11.4
1.7pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 16.0%market +1.6pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.2pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
49
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 4.7%Valinor 10.9%market +1.5pp
P 13.8
F 4.7
V 4.7
9.0pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
50
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 26.0%Valinor 18.5%market +1.4pp
P 23.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 420 avg 3 books
51
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 15.9%market +1.3pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.0pp 0.990xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
52
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 16.4%market +1.2pp
P 18.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.5pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
53
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 17.8%market +1.2pp
P 19.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.5pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
54
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 15.5%market +1.0pp
P 19.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
55
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 17.2%market +0.9pp
P 19.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.6pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
56
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 4.7%Valinor 7.7%market +0.2pp
P 7.3
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.6pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
57
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 15.5%Valinor 18.4%market -0.5pp
P 17.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.1pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
58
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 16.2%market -0.9pp
P 13.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.8pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
59
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3
 15.5%Valinor 17.1%market -1.6pp
P 15.1
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.4pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
60
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 17.2%Valinor 20.5%market -1.8pp
P 19.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.2pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
61
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 15.7%Valinor 22.5%market -2.3pp
P 17.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.0pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
62
Jake Burger TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 13.4%Valinor 19.2%market -2.5pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
63
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 26.0%Valinor 24.1%market -3.5pp
P 19.9
F 26.0
V 26.0
6.0pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
64
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 21.7%market -3.7pp
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.0pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
65
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 23.0%market -3.7pp
P 18.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.2pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
66
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1
 9.1%Valinor 8.0%market -3.8pp
P 7.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
1.3pp 0.956xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
67
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 22.0%market -4.3pp
P 17.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.4pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
68
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 26.3%market -5.0pp
P 21.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
6.8pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
69
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 27.0%market -5.1pp
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.0pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1606roster/transaction rows
Lineups243confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.