Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-06-17 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Eli White
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 2 |
29.1%Palantir | 15.2%market | +13.9pp |
P
29.1
F
31.1
V
31.1
|
2.0pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Elite Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 530 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 3 |
24.8%Palantir | 12.1%market | +12.7pp |
P
24.8
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
1.2pp | 1.249xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 695 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
Lineup pending
|
BOS vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1 |
23.0%Palantir | 11.8%market | +11.2pp |
P
23.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
5.1pp | 1.123xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 715 avg 3 books |
| 04 | IN | SF vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 7 |
21.9%Palantir | 13.0%market | +8.9pp |
P
21.9
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
4.1pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
Lineup pending
|
BOS vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4 |
23.5%Palantir | 15.5%market | +8.0pp |
P
23.5
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
5.6pp | 1.123xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 520 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Jung Hoo Lee
SF
IN
|
SF vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 5 |
15.8%Palantir | 7.8%market | +8.0pp |
P
15.8
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.6pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1135 avg 3 books |
| 07 | Lineup pending | BOS vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3 |
22.8%Palantir | 15.2%market | +7.7pp |
P
22.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.9pp | 1.123xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 535 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Brice Turang
MIL
Lineup pending
|
MIL vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1 |
17.5%Palantir | 10.0%market | +7.5pp |
P
17.5
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.4pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 865 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Dominic Smith
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 5 |
17.0%Palantir | 9.8%market | +7.2pp |
P
17.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.9pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 890 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Jeremy Peña
HOU
Lineup pending
|
HOU vs DETCasey Mize · slot 1 |
18.2%Palantir | 11.2%market | +7.1pp |
P
18.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.3pp | 1.085xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 765 avg 3 books |
| 11 | Lineup pending | KC vs WSHZack Littell · slot 1 |
23.1%Palantir | 16.9%market | +6.2pp |
P
23.1
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
5.2pp | 1.183xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 470 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHAaron Civale · slot 3 |
19.2%Palantir | 13.0%market | +6.2pp |
P
19.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.3pp | 1.063xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
Lineup pending
|
MIL vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2 |
22.6%Palantir | 16.4%market | +6.1pp |
P
22.6
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
3.4pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Willy Adames
SF
IN
|
SF vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 6 |
22.7%Palantir | 16.7%market | +6.0pp |
P
22.7
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.8pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 475 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Matt Chapman
SF
IN
|
SF vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3 |
22.1%Palantir | 16.2%market | +5.9pp |
P
22.1
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
3.9pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Willi Castro
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 1 |
15.6%Palantir | 9.8%market | +5.8pp |
P
15.6
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.4pp | 1.069xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 885 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Jose Altuve
HOU
Lineup pending
|
HOU vs DETCasey Mize · slot 3 |
20.7%Palantir | 15.0%market | +5.7pp |
P
20.7
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
3.5pp | 1.085xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 540 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 8 |
19.4%Palantir | 13.7%market | +5.6pp |
P
19.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.5pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 600 avg 3 books |
| 19 | Lineup pending | KC vs WSHZack Littell · slot 4 |
22.5%Palantir | 17.2%market | +5.3pp |
P
22.5
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.6pp | 1.183xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 460 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 4 |
17.7%Palantir | 12.5%market | +5.3pp |
P
17.7
F
13.6
V
13.6
|
4.2pp | 1.069xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Trea Turner
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1 |
19.4%Palantir | 14.1%market | +5.2pp |
P
19.4
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
3.6pp | 1.067xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 580 avg 3 books |
| 22 | Lineup pending | CWS vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 4 |
16.9%Palantir | 11.7%market | +5.2pp |
P
16.9
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.3pp | 1.017xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 725 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHAaron Civale · slot 5 |
18.6%Palantir | 13.5%market | +5.2pp |
P
18.6
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
3.1pp | 1.063xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 4 |
18.9%Palantir | 13.8%market | +5.0pp |
P
18.9
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
3.1pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 595 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Spencer Horwitz
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHAaron Civale · slot 6 |
16.3%Palantir | 11.3%market | +5.0pp |
P
16.3
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.9pp | 1.063xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 750 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Brandon Marsh
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6 |
15.9%Palantir | 11.0%market | +4.9pp |
P
15.9
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.0pp | 1.067xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5 |
18.4%Palantir | 13.6%market | +4.8pp |
P
18.4
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
4.2pp | 1.249xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Luis Arraez
SF
IN
|
SF vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1 |
12.4%Palantir | 7.7%market | +4.7pp |
P
12.4
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.8pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 29 | Lineup pending | MIL vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3 |
17.0%Palantir | 12.5%market | +4.5pp |
P
17.0
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
1.3pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Edouard Julien
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 6 |
15.2%Palantir | 10.9%market | +4.3pp |
P
15.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.9pp | 1.069xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 790 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5 |
14.9%Palantir | 10.7%market | +4.3pp |
P
14.9
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.7pp | 1.067xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 805 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 6 |
11.7%Palantir | 7.7%market | +4.0pp |
P
11.7
F
13.6
V
13.6
|
1.9pp | 1.017xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Mauricio Dubón
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 6 |
11.4%Palantir | 8.3%market | +3.2pp |
P
11.4
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
0.0pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1070 avg 3 books |
| 34 | IN | SF vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4 |
22.4%Palantir | 19.2%market | +3.1pp |
P
22.4
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
5.1pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 400 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Lane Thomas
KC
Lineup pending
|
KC vs WSHZack Littell · slot 5 |
15.4%Palantir | 12.5%market | +2.9pp |
P
15.4
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.2pp | 1.183xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1 |
9.5%Palantir | 7.7%market | +1.9pp |
P
9.5
F
10.3
V
10.3
|
0.8pp | 1.017xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 1 |
19.6%Palantir | 17.8%market | +1.8pp |
P
19.6
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
6.3pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 440 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Mark Vientos
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 6 |
17.8%Palantir | 16.0%market | +1.8pp |
P
17.8
F
13.6
V
13.6
|
4.2pp | 1.249xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 500 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Isaac Paredes
HOU
Lineup pending
|
HOU vs DETCasey Mize · slot 5 |
16.2%Palantir | 15.2%market | +0.9pp |
P
16.2
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
0.5pp | 1.085xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 530 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Adley Rutschman
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5 |
12.2%Palantir | 11.9%market | +0.3pp |
P
12.2
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
0.7pp | 0.880xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 710 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Austin Riley
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 7 |
15.8%Palantir | 16.7%market | -0.8pp |
P
15.8
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.6pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 500 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Zach Neto
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1 |
20.9%Palantir | 16.9%market | +4.1pp |
P
20.9
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 470 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHAaron Civale · slot 1 |
11.0%Palantir | 7.7%market | +3.3pp |
P
11.0
F
11.1
V
11.1
|
0.1pp | 1.063xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2 |
21.7%Palantir | 18.7%market | +3.0pp |
P
21.7
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.7pp | 1.067xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 415 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 2 |
19.8%Palantir | 17.0%market | +2.7pp |
P
19.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.8pp | 1.069xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 465 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHAaron Civale · slot 4 |
21.3%Palantir | 19.4%market | +1.9pp |
P
21.3
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.4pp | 1.063xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 395 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Christian Walker
HOU
Lineup pending
|
HOU vs DETCasey Mize · slot 4 |
18.9%Palantir | 17.3%market | +1.6pp |
P
18.9
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
3.2pp | 1.085xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 455 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Mike Trout
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2 |
20.1%Palantir | 18.9%market | +1.2pp |
P
20.1
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.2pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 410 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Matt Olson
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 3 |
21.2%Palantir | 20.2%market | +1.0pp |
P
21.2
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
4.0pp | 1.195xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 375 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Juan Soto
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1 |
23.0%Palantir | 22.1%market | +0.9pp |
P
23.0
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
3.0pp | 1.249xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 335 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4 |
17.2%Palantir | 18.0%market | -0.9pp |
P
17.2
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
1.7pp | 0.880xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 455 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5 |
15.3%Palantir | 16.5%market | -1.2pp |
P
15.3
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
1.9pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 505 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1 |
16.6%Palantir | 18.0%market | -1.4pp |
P
16.6
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
2.4pp | 0.880xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 455 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4 |
15.5%Palantir | 17.0%market | -1.4pp |
P
15.5
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.3pp | 0.880xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
Lineup pending
|
HOU vs DETCasey Mize · slot 2 |
18.4%Palantir | 20.8%market | -2.4pp |
P
18.4
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
1.2pp | 1.085xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 380 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1 |
15.9%Palantir | 18.4%market | -2.4pp |
P
15.9
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
2.6pp | 0.880xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 445 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Jo Adell
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4 |
18.4%Palantir | 20.8%market | -2.5pp |
P
18.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.5pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 380 avg 3 books |
| 58 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHAaron Civale · slot 2 |
17.6%Palantir | 21.1%market | -3.4pp |
P
17.6
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
3.4pp | 1.063xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 59 |
Tyler O'Neill
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3 |
13.1%Palantir | 17.7%market | -4.6pp |
P
13.1
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.2pp | 0.880xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 60 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2 |
16.0%Palantir | 23.0%market | -7.0pp |
P
16.0
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
2.6pp | 0.880xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 335 avg 3 books |
| 61 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3 |
19.7%Palantir | 27.0%market | -7.3pp |
P
19.7
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.5pp | 1.067xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 270 avg 3 books |
| 62 |
Cal Raleigh
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3 |
16.4%Palantir | 26.3%market | -9.9pp |
P
16.4
F
11.1
V
11.1
|
5.4pp | 0.880xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 280 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus1617roster/transaction rows
Lineups18confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.