Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-06 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
57
Matched
201
Lineups
90
HR BOARD 2026-07-06 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 3
 20.2%Palantir 11.1%market +9.1pp
P 20.2
F 14.5
V 13.4
6.8pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
02
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 1
 21.0%Palantir 13.9%market +7.0pp
P 21.0
F 16.6
V 15.2
5.8pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
03
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 15.4%Palantir 9.3%market +6.0pp
P 15.4
F 16.3
V 13.0
3.3pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
04
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
 17.8%Palantir 12.7%market +5.0pp
P 17.8
F 17.5
V 12.9
4.8pp 1.065xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
05
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs STLDustin May · slot 1
 14.6%Palantir 10.0%market +4.6pp
P 14.6
F 16.3
V 12.2
4.1pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
06
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 4
 16.8%Palantir 12.4%market +4.4pp
P 16.8
F 16.3
V 14.5
2.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
07
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 6
 12.1%Palantir 7.7%market +4.4pp
P 12.1
F 16.3
V 12.0
4.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
08
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 2
 20.7%Palantir 16.4%market +4.3pp
P 20.7
F 21.1
V 16.2
4.9pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
09
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
 16.8%Palantir 12.9%market +3.9pp
P 16.8
F 14.6
V 13.5
3.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
10
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
 18.8%Palantir 15.0%market +3.8pp
P 18.8
F 16.3
V 17.0
2.5pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
11
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
 18.3%Palantir 14.7%market +3.6pp
P 18.3
F 15.6
V 15.8
2.7pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
12
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 6
 16.8%Palantir 13.5%market +3.4pp
P 16.8
F 16.6
V 16.1
0.7pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
13
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
 17.6%Palantir 14.2%market +3.3pp
P 17.6
F 16.6
V 14.2
3.4pp 1.065xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
14
Willi Castro COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
 13.0%Palantir 9.9%market +3.1pp
P 13.0
F 14.9
V 12.2
2.7pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
15
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
 18.5%Palantir 15.6%market +2.8pp
P 18.5
F 16.3
V 14.5
3.9pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
16
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
 18.7%Palantir 15.9%market +2.8pp
P 18.7
F 16.3
V 14.7
4.0pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
17
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
 15.5%Palantir 12.7%market +2.7pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 13.3
2.2pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
18
Jake Cronenworth SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 7
 12.3%Palantir 9.6%market +2.7pp
P 12.3
F 14.5
V 12.6
2.2pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
19
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 16.0%Palantir 13.5%market +2.6pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 18.9
3.4pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
20
Andy Pages LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 7
 15.9%Palantir 13.4%market +2.6pp
P 15.9
F 14.5
V 12.0
3.9pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
21
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 5
 12.2%Palantir 9.8%market +2.4pp
P 12.2
F 15.5
V 13.1
3.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
22
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
 13.3%Palantir 11.1%market +2.2pp
P 13.3
F 14.9
V 12.5
2.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
23
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 14.2%Palantir 12.5%market +1.7pp
P 14.2
F 15.5
V 13.5
2.0pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
24
Jackson Merrill SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 16.6%Palantir 15.5%market +1.1pp
P 16.6
F 14.2
V 16.3
2.4pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
25
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
 14.4%Palantir 13.6%market +0.7pp
P 14.4
F 14.9
V 14.0
1.0pp 1.065xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
26
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 12.6%Palantir 14.2%market -1.6pp
P 12.6
F 14.5
V 14.9
2.3pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
27
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 3
 14.2%Palantir 16.0%market -1.8pp
P 14.2
F 16.6
V 17.8
3.6pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
28
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs STLDustin May · slot 2
 20.3%Palantir 16.4%market +3.9pp
P 20.3
F 19.6
V 14.4
5.9pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
29
Nathan Lukes TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
 11.7%Palantir 9.1%market +2.6pp
P 11.7
F 14.9
V 12.4
3.2pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
30
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5
 15.4%Palantir 13.1%market +2.3pp
P 15.4
F 15.6
V 15.3
0.3pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
31
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 19.7%Palantir 17.5%market +2.2pp
P 19.7
F 16.6
V 15.4
4.2pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
32
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
 19.8%Palantir 18.5%market +1.3pp
P 19.8
F 16.6
V 14.7
5.0pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 420 avg 3 books
33
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 17.3%Palantir 16.4%market +0.9pp
P 17.3
F 16.3
V 16.2
1.1pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
34
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 17.5%Palantir 18.4%market -0.9pp
P 17.5
F 15.6
V 17.0
1.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
35
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
 17.7%Palantir 18.9%market -1.1pp
P 17.7
F 16.3
V 16.6
1.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
36
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4
 16.9%Palantir 18.2%market -1.2pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 16.7
1.4pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
37
Jung Hoo Lee SF
Lineup pending
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 7
 6.6%Palantir 8.0%market -1.4pp
P 6.6
F 11.0
V 11.6
5.1pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
38
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN Triple
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5
 14.1%Palantir 16.0%market -1.9pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 15.9
1.8pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
39
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
 16.4%Palantir 18.4%market -1.9pp
P 16.4
F 14.9
V 15.3
1.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
40
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1
 6.0%Palantir 8.0%market -2.0pp
P 6.0
F 12.8
V 14.8
8.8pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
41
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4
 16.5%Palantir 18.7%market -2.2pp
P 16.5
F 15.6
V 17.5
1.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
42
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 2
 19.3%Palantir 21.7%market -2.5pp
P 19.3
F 16.3
V 18.9
3.0pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
43
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 15.2%Palantir 17.7%market -2.5pp
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 16.2
1.3pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
44
Manny Machado SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 16.2%Palantir 18.9%market -2.6pp
P 16.2
F 15.6
V 16.9
1.2pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
45
Willy Adames SF
Lineup pending
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4
 15.1%Palantir 17.7%market -2.6pp
P 15.1
F 14.9
V 16.4
1.5pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
46
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 16.1%Palantir 19.1%market -3.0pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 15.3
1.2pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
47
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
 10.9%Palantir 13.9%market -3.0pp
P 10.9
F 14.5
V 15.8
4.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
48
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 13.8%Palantir 17.0%market -3.1pp
P 13.8
F 15.6
V 16.1
2.2pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
49
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 4
 13.8%Palantir 17.0%market -3.2pp
P 13.8
F 14.9
V 18.5
4.7pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
50
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 17.5%Palantir 21.1%market -3.5pp
P 17.5
F 16.3
V 16.0
1.6pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
51
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
 16.4%Palantir 20.8%market -4.4pp
P 16.4
F 16.3
V 17.2
0.9pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
52
Daulton Varsho TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
 12.5%Palantir 17.5%market -5.0pp
P 12.5
F 14.5
V 16.7
4.2pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
53
Rafael Devers SF
Lineup pending
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2
 15.6%Palantir 20.8%market -5.3pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 16.6
1.7pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
54
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
 2.3%Palantir 8.0%market -5.7pp
P 2.3
F 4.8
V 10.6
8.3pp 1.065xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
55
Junior Caminero TB
IN Triple
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
 15.7%Palantir 22.0%market -6.2pp
P 15.7
F 16.6
V 14.3
2.3pp 1.065xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
56
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3
 15.9%Palantir 26.0%market -10.1pp
P 15.9
F 15.6
V 15.8
0.3pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
57
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
 16.2%Palantir 29.0%market -12.8pp
P 16.2
F 16.3
V 18.1
1.9pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1672roster/transaction rows
Lineups90confirmed starters
Triple3cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.