Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-07-06 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-02
Palantir
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12423 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 5 |
18.9%Valinor | 13.5%market | +4.9pp |
P
16.0
F
15.5
V
18.9
|
3.4pp | 1.084xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
José Tena
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 6 |
12.0%Valinor | 7.7%market | +4.0pp |
P
12.1
F
16.3
V
12.0
|
4.3pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 03 | Lineup pending | AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3 |
13.0%Valinor | 9.3%market | +3.3pp |
P
15.4
F
16.3
V
13.0
|
3.3pp | 0.944xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 935 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 5 |
13.1%Valinor | 9.8%market | +2.9pp |
P
12.2
F
15.5
V
13.1
|
3.3pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 05 | Lineup pending | SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 7 |
12.6%Valinor | 9.6%market | +2.6pp |
P
12.3
F
14.5
V
12.6
|
2.2pp | 0.944xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 905 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 6 |
16.1%Valinor | 13.5%market | +2.1pp |
P
16.8
F
16.6
V
16.1
|
0.7pp | 1.084xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Lane Thomas
KC
IN
|
KC vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5 |
15.8%Valinor | 13.3%market | +2.0pp |
P
10.9
F
14.5
V
15.8
|
4.9pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 3 |
17.8%Valinor | 15.3%market | +2.0pp |
P
14.2
F
16.6
V
17.8
|
3.6pp | 1.084xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 530 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Willi Castro
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1 |
12.2%Valinor | 9.9%market | +2.0pp |
P
13.0
F
14.9
V
12.2
|
2.7pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 875 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 3 |
13.4%Valinor | 11.1%market | +1.9pp |
P
20.2
F
14.5
V
13.4
|
6.8pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs STLDustin May · slot 1 |
12.2%Valinor | 10.0%market | +1.8pp |
P
14.6
F
16.3
V
12.2
|
4.1pp | 0.965xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 865 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Austin Riley
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 4 |
18.5%Valinor | 16.2%market | +1.7pp |
P
13.8
F
14.9
V
18.5
|
4.7pp | 1.084xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 4 |
14.5%Valinor | 12.4%market | +1.6pp |
P
16.8
F
16.3
V
14.5
|
2.3pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Jose Altuve
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3 |
17.0%Valinor | 15.0%market | +1.4pp |
P
18.8
F
16.3
V
17.0
|
2.5pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 540 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5 |
12.5%Valinor | 11.1%market | +1.1pp |
P
13.3
F
14.9
V
12.5
|
2.4pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 775 avg 3 books |
| 16 | Lineup pending | AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5 |
14.9%Valinor | 13.5%market | +0.9pp |
P
12.6
F
14.5
V
14.9
|
2.3pp | 0.944xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 610 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 1 |
15.2%Valinor | 13.9%market | +0.7pp |
P
21.0
F
16.6
V
15.2
|
5.8pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 590 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Trea Turner
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1 |
15.8%Valinor | 14.7%market | +0.5pp |
P
18.3
F
15.6
V
15.8
|
2.7pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 555 avg 3 books |
| 19 | IN | MIL vs STLDustin May · slot 3 |
13.5%Valinor | 12.5%market | +0.5pp |
P
14.2
F
15.5
V
13.5
|
2.0pp | 0.965xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 20 | Lineup pending | SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3 |
16.3%Valinor | 15.5%market | +0.2pp |
P
16.6
F
14.2
V
16.3
|
2.4pp | 0.944xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 520 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5 |
13.3%Valinor | 12.7%market | +0.0pp |
P
15.5
F
14.9
V
13.3
|
2.2pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4 |
13.5%Valinor | 13.1%market | -0.1pp |
P
16.8
F
14.6
V
13.5
|
3.3pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 640 avg 3 books |
| 23 | IN | TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5 |
14.0%Valinor | 13.6%market | -0.2pp |
P
14.4
F
14.9
V
14.0
|
1.0pp | 1.065xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 24 | IN | TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3 |
12.9%Valinor | 13.3%market | -0.4pp |
P
17.8
F
17.5
V
12.9
|
4.8pp | 1.065xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Yandy Díaz
TB
IN
|
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2 |
14.2%Valinor | 14.4%market | -0.8pp |
P
17.6
F
16.6
V
14.2
|
3.4pp | 1.065xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 570 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
James Wood
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 2 |
16.2%Valinor | 16.8%market | -1.2pp |
P
20.7
F
21.1
V
16.2
|
4.9pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2 |
14.5%Valinor | 15.8%market | -1.8pp |
P
18.5
F
16.3
V
14.5
|
3.9pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 510 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Andy Pages
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 7 |
12.0%Valinor | 13.4%market | -1.9pp |
P
15.9
F
14.5
V
12.0
|
3.9pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 620 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5 |
14.7%Valinor | 16.2%market | -2.1pp |
P
18.7
F
16.3
V
14.7
|
4.0pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 495 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3 |
15.8%Valinor | 25.5%market | -10.5pp |
P
15.9
F
15.6
V
15.8
|
0.3pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 280 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1 |
18.1%Valinor | 28.4%market | -11.3pp |
P
16.2
F
16.3
V
18.1
|
1.9pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 240 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Luis Arraez
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1 |
14.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | +6.8pp |
P
6.0
F
12.8
V
14.8
|
8.8pp | 0.909xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Jung Hoo Lee
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 7 |
11.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.6pp |
P
6.6
F
11.0
V
11.6
|
5.1pp | 0.909xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Nathan Lukes
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6 |
12.4%Valinor | 9.1%market | +2.9pp |
P
11.7
F
14.9
V
12.4
|
3.2pp | 0.909xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 960 avg 3 books |
| 35 | IN | TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1 |
10.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.6pp |
P
2.3
F
4.8
V
10.6
|
8.3pp | 1.065xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Heliot Ramos
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5 |
15.3%Valinor | 13.1%market | +1.7pp |
P
15.4
F
15.6
V
15.3
|
0.3pp | 0.909xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Isaac Paredes
HOU
IN
Triple
|
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5 |
15.9%Valinor | 15.2%market | +0.1pp |
P
14.1
F
15.5
V
15.9
|
1.8pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 530 avg 3 books |
| 38 | Lineup pending | TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2 |
16.1%Valinor | 16.4%market | -0.9pp |
P
13.8
F
15.6
V
16.1
|
2.2pp | 0.909xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Daulton Varsho
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4 |
16.7%Valinor | 17.1%market | -1.0pp |
P
12.5
F
14.5
V
16.7
|
4.2pp | 0.909xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 40 | Lineup pending | SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1 |
16.2%Valinor | 16.7%market | -1.1pp |
P
17.3
F
16.3
V
16.2
|
1.1pp | 0.944xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Willy Adames
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4 |
16.4%Valinor | 17.1%market | -1.3pp |
P
15.1
F
14.9
V
16.4
|
1.5pp | 0.909xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 42 | IN | KC vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1 |
17.0%Valinor | 17.7%market | -1.4pp |
P
17.5
F
15.6
V
17.0
|
1.9pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 43 | IN | KC vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4 |
17.5%Valinor | 18.2%market | -1.4pp |
P
16.5
F
15.6
V
17.5
|
1.9pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
George Springer
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1 |
16.2%Valinor | 17.1%market | -1.5pp |
P
15.2
F
14.9
V
16.2
|
1.3pp | 0.909xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Christian Walker
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4 |
16.7%Valinor | 17.7%market | -1.7pp |
P
16.9
F
15.5
V
16.7
|
1.4pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 46 | Lineup pending | SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2 |
16.9%Valinor | 18.4%market | -2.2pp |
P
16.2
F
15.6
V
16.9
|
1.2pp | 0.944xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 425 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2 |
16.6%Valinor | 18.4%market | -2.5pp |
P
17.7
F
16.3
V
16.6
|
1.4pp | 1.001xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 425 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs STLDustin May · slot 2 |
14.4%Valinor | 16.7%market | -2.9pp |
P
20.3
F
19.6
V
14.4
|
5.9pp | 0.965xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3 |
15.3%Valinor | 17.7%market | -3.0pp |
P
16.4
F
14.9
V
15.3
|
1.5pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Matt Olson
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 2 |
18.9%Valinor | 21.2%market | -3.0pp |
P
19.3
F
16.3
V
18.9
|
3.0pp | 1.084xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 51 | Lineup pending | AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1 |
15.4%Valinor | 17.9%market | -3.1pp |
P
19.7
F
16.6
V
15.4
|
4.2pp | 0.944xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2 |
17.2%Valinor | 20.3%market | -3.9pp |
P
16.4
F
16.3
V
17.2
|
0.9pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 53 | Lineup pending Triple | LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4 |
15.3%Valinor | 18.6%market | -3.9pp |
P
16.1
F
14.9
V
15.3
|
1.2pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 54 | Lineup pending | SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2 |
16.6%Valinor | 20.3%market | -4.5pp |
P
15.6
F
14.9
V
16.6
|
1.7pp | 0.909xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2 |
14.7%Valinor | 18.9%market | -4.9pp |
P
19.8
F
16.6
V
14.7
|
5.0pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Ketel Marte
AZ
Lineup pending
|
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2 |
16.0%Valinor | 20.5%market | -5.3pp |
P
17.5
F
16.3
V
16.0
|
1.6pp | 0.944xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 57 | IN Triple | TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4 |
14.3%Valinor | 21.5%market | -7.9pp |
P
15.7
F
16.6
V
14.3
|
2.3pp | 1.065xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 350 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus1672roster/transaction rows
Lineups90confirmed starters
Triple3cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.