Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-06 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
57
Matched
201
Lineups
90
HR BOARD 2026-07-06 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 6
 16.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +8.6pp
P 12.1
F 16.3
V 12.0
4.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 16.3%Fangorn 9.3%market +7.0pp
P 15.4
F 16.3
V 13.0
3.3pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
03
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs STLDustin May · slot 1
 16.3%Fangorn 10.0%market +6.3pp
P 14.6
F 16.3
V 12.2
4.1pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
04
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 9.8%market +5.6pp
P 12.2
F 15.5
V 13.1
3.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
05
Willi Castro COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
 14.9%Fangorn 9.9%market +5.0pp
P 13.0
F 14.9
V 12.2
2.7pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
06
Jake Cronenworth SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 7
 14.5%Fangorn 9.6%market +4.9pp
P 12.3
F 14.5
V 12.6
2.2pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
07
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
 17.5%Fangorn 12.7%market +4.7pp
P 17.8
F 17.5
V 12.9
4.8pp 1.065xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
08
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 2
 21.1%Fangorn 16.4%market +4.7pp
P 20.7
F 21.1
V 16.2
4.9pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
09
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 4
 16.3%Fangorn 12.4%market +3.9pp
P 16.8
F 16.3
V 14.5
2.3pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
10
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 11.1%market +3.9pp
P 13.3
F 14.9
V 12.5
2.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
11
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 3
 14.5%Fangorn 11.1%market +3.4pp
P 20.2
F 14.5
V 13.4
6.8pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
12
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 6
 16.6%Fangorn 13.5%market +3.2pp
P 16.8
F 16.6
V 16.1
0.7pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
13
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 12.5%market +3.0pp
P 14.2
F 15.5
V 13.5
2.0pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
14
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 1
 16.6%Fangorn 13.9%market +2.7pp
P 21.0
F 16.6
V 15.2
5.8pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
15
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
 16.6%Fangorn 14.2%market +2.4pp
P 17.6
F 16.6
V 14.2
3.4pp 1.065xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
16
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 12.7%market +2.2pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 13.3
2.2pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
17
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 13.5%market +2.0pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 18.9
3.4pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
18
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
 14.6%Fangorn 12.9%market +1.7pp
P 16.8
F 14.6
V 13.5
3.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
19
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 3
 16.6%Fangorn 15.3%market +1.4pp
P 14.2
F 16.6
V 17.8
3.6pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
20
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 13.6%market +1.3pp
P 14.4
F 14.9
V 14.0
1.0pp 1.065xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
21
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
 14.5%Fangorn 13.3%market +1.3pp
P 10.9
F 14.5
V 15.8
4.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
22
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
 16.3%Fangorn 15.0%market +1.3pp
P 18.8
F 16.3
V 17.0
2.5pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
23
Andy Pages LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 7
 14.5%Fangorn 13.4%market +1.2pp
P 15.9
F 14.5
V 12.0
3.9pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
24
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 14.5%Fangorn 13.5%market +1.0pp
P 12.6
F 14.5
V 14.9
2.3pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
25
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
 15.6%Fangorn 14.7%market +0.9pp
P 18.3
F 15.6
V 15.8
2.7pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
26
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
 16.3%Fangorn 15.6%market +0.7pp
P 18.5
F 16.3
V 14.5
3.9pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
27
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
 16.3%Fangorn 15.9%market +0.4pp
P 18.7
F 16.3
V 14.7
4.0pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
28
Jackson Merrill SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.1pp
P 16.6
F 14.2
V 16.3
2.4pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
29
Nathan Lukes TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
 14.9%Fangorn 9.1%market +5.8pp
P 11.7
F 14.9
V 12.4
3.2pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
30
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1
 12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 6.0
F 12.8
V 14.8
8.8pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31
Jung Hoo Lee SF
Lineup pending
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 7
 11.0%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.3pp
P 6.6
F 11.0
V 11.6
5.1pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs STLDustin May · slot 2
 19.6%Fangorn 16.4%market +3.1pp
P 20.3
F 19.6
V 14.4
5.9pp 0.965xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
33
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5
 15.6%Fangorn 13.1%market +2.5pp
P 15.4
F 15.6
V 15.3
0.3pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
34
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN Triple
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 16.0%market -0.5pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 15.9
1.8pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
35
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 16.3%Fangorn 17.2%market -0.9pp
P 17.3
F 16.3
V 16.2
1.1pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
36
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 15.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -1.3pp
P 13.8
F 15.6
V 16.1
2.2pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
37
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 16.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -1.7pp
P 19.7
F 16.6
V 15.4
4.2pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
38
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.0pp
P 13.8
F 14.9
V 18.5
4.7pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
39
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
 16.3%Fangorn 18.9%market -2.6pp
P 17.7
F 16.3
V 16.6
1.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
40
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 18.2%market -2.7pp
P 16.9
F 15.5
V 16.7
1.4pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
41
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 15.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -2.7pp
P 17.5
F 15.6
V 17.0
1.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
42
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
 16.6%Fangorn 19.4%market -2.8pp
P 19.8
F 16.6
V 14.7
5.0pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
43
Willy Adames SF
Lineup pending
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.8pp
P 15.1
F 14.9
V 16.4
1.5pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
44
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 14.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.8pp
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 16.2
1.3pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
45
Daulton Varsho TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
 14.5%Fangorn 17.5%market -3.0pp
P 12.5
F 14.5
V 16.7
4.2pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
46
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4
 15.6%Fangorn 18.7%market -3.1pp
P 16.5
F 15.6
V 17.5
1.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
47
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
 4.8%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.2pp
P 2.3
F 4.8
V 10.6
8.3pp 1.065xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
48
Manny Machado SD
Lineup pending
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 15.6%Fangorn 18.9%market -3.3pp
P 16.2
F 15.6
V 16.9
1.2pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
49
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -3.4pp
P 16.4
F 14.9
V 15.3
1.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
50
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -4.1pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 15.3
1.2pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
51
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
 16.3%Fangorn 20.8%market -4.5pp
P 16.4
F 16.3
V 17.2
0.9pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
52
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 16.3%Fangorn 21.1%market -4.8pp
P 17.5
F 16.3
V 16.0
1.6pp 0.944xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
53
Junior Caminero TB
IN Triple
TB vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
 16.6%Fangorn 22.0%market -5.3pp
P 15.7
F 16.6
V 14.3
2.3pp 1.065xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
54
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 2
 16.3%Fangorn 21.7%market -5.4pp
P 19.3
F 16.3
V 18.9
3.0pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
55
Rafael Devers SF
Lineup pending
SF vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -5.9pp
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 16.6
1.7pp 0.909xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
56
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3
 15.6%Fangorn 26.0%market -10.4pp
P 15.9
F 15.6
V 15.8
0.3pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
57
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
 16.3%Fangorn 29.0%market -12.7pp
P 16.2
F 16.3
V 18.1
1.9pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1672roster/transaction rows
Lineups90confirmed starters
Triple3cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.