Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-07 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
77
Matched
279
Lineups
234
HR BOARD 2026-07-07 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 3
16.4%Palantir 9.3%market +7.1pp
P 16.4
F 16.3
V 12.6
3.8pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02 IN
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
19.5%Palantir 12.5%market +7.0pp
P 19.5
F 16.6
V 12.3
7.2pp 0.992xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
03 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6
17.5%Palantir 11.0%market +6.5pp
P 17.5
F 16.6
V 11.8
5.7pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
04 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
18.6%Palantir 12.7%market +5.8pp
P 18.6
F 21.1
V 13.7
7.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
05 IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
19.6%Palantir 14.7%market +4.9pp
P 19.6
F 16.3
V 18.0
3.3pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
06 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
18.8%Palantir 14.2%market +4.5pp
P 18.8
F 21.1
V 15.0
6.1pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
07 IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 7
12.9%Palantir 8.5%market +4.4pp
P 12.9
F 14.6
V 12.2
2.4pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
08 IN
SEA vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 5
18.1%Palantir 13.8%market +4.3pp
P 18.1
F 16.3
V 15.1
3.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
09
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5
14.8%Palantir 11.1%market +3.8pp
P 14.8
F 15.6
V 16.0
1.2pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
10 IN
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
17.0%Palantir 13.3%market +3.8pp
P 17.0
F 16.6
V 12.5
4.5pp 0.992xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
11 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
14.1%Palantir 10.5%market +3.6pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 11.7
3.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
12 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
12.3%Palantir 8.7%market +3.6pp
P 12.3
F 14.9
V 13.1
2.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
13
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
19.7%Palantir 16.3%market +3.4pp
P 19.7
F 16.6
V 16.4
3.3pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
19.5%Palantir 16.2%market +3.4pp
P 19.5
F 16.3
V 14.8
4.8pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
15 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 3
16.2%Palantir 13.0%market +3.2pp
P 16.2
F 16.6
V 14.2
2.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
16 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3
18.5%Palantir 15.6%market +2.8pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 14.6
3.9pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
17 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
20.3%Palantir 17.6%market +2.6pp
P 20.3
F 16.6
V 16.5
3.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
18 IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
14.3%Palantir 11.7%market +2.6pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 12.7
2.8pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
19 IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
13.2%Palantir 10.6%market +2.5pp
P 13.2
F 12.8
V 12.8
0.4pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
20 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 5
15.8%Palantir 13.5%market +2.3pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 14.6
1.1pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
21
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
17.0%Palantir 14.8%market +2.2pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 14.6
2.4pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 7
12.3%Palantir 10.4%market +1.9pp
P 12.3
F 14.9
V 14.7
2.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 7
11.4%Palantir 9.6%market +1.8pp
P 11.4
F 13.7
V 11.7
2.3pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
24 IN
SEA vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 4
17.9%Palantir 16.2%market +1.7pp
P 17.9
F 16.3
V 16.2
1.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
25 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
14.7%Palantir 13.1%market +1.7pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 13.0
2.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
17.0%Palantir 15.4%market +1.6pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 14.7
2.3pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
27 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
15.2%Palantir 13.6%market +1.6pp
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 13.9
1.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
28 IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
10.3%Palantir 8.7%market +1.6pp
P 10.3
F 14.5
V 13.5
4.2pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
29 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
12.7%Palantir 11.9%market +0.7pp
P 12.7
F 14.6
V 14.8
2.2pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 710 avg 3 books
30
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
15.4%Palantir 14.7%market +0.7pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 15.0
0.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
31 Lineup pending
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 6
12.4%Palantir 12.9%market -0.5pp
P 12.4
F 14.9
V 13.2
2.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
32 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
13.2%Palantir 14.1%market -0.9pp
P 13.2
F 14.6
V 16.4
3.2pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 5
13.1%Palantir 14.2%market -1.1pp
P 13.1
F 14.5
V 14.9
1.8pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 1
19.9%Palantir 17.5%market +2.5pp
P 19.9
F 16.6
V 15.4
4.5pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
35 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
18.5%Palantir 16.2%market +2.4pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 16.0
2.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
36 IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
19.0%Palantir 18.0%market +1.1pp
P 19.0
F 16.3
V 17.9
2.7pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
37 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
18.4%Palantir 17.8%market +0.6pp
P 18.4
F 16.6
V 15.7
2.6pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
38 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 4
18.4%Palantir 17.8%market +0.6pp
P 18.4
F 16.3
V 16.8
2.1pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
39 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
14.0%Palantir 13.5%market +0.5pp
P 14.0
F 15.5
V 14.5
1.5pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 3
15.7%Palantir 16.3%market -0.5pp
P 15.7
F 13.7
V 15.2
2.0pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
41 IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
16.8%Palantir 17.5%market -0.7pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 1
16.4%Palantir 17.2%market -0.8pp
P 16.4
F 16.3
V 15.0
1.4pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
43 IN
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
10.6%Palantir 11.4%market -0.9pp
P 10.6
F 10.2
V 14.7
4.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
44 IN
ATH vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 6
8.5%Palantir 9.5%market -1.0pp
P 8.5
F 4.8
V 11.9
7.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 950 avg 3 books
45 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 1
6.9%Palantir 8.0%market -1.1pp
P 6.9
F 11.0
V 12.6
5.7pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
6.7%Palantir 8.0%market -1.3pp
P 6.7
F 12.8
V 14.4
7.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
47 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
13.9%Palantir 15.3%market -1.4pp
P 13.9
F 14.9
V 15.0
1.1pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
17.7%Palantir 19.1%market -1.4pp
P 17.7
F 15.6
V 15.8
2.1pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
49 IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5
14.0%Palantir 16.0%market -2.0pp
P 14.0
F 16.3
V 15.9
2.3pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
50 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 4
18.2%Palantir 20.4%market -2.2pp
P 18.2
F 16.3
V 15.4
2.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
51 IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
14.8%Palantir 17.1%market -2.3pp
P 14.8
F 16.3
V 15.2
1.5pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
52 IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
16.7%Palantir 19.4%market -2.7pp
P 16.7
F 14.9
V 15.4
1.8pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
53 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5
11.9%Palantir 14.8%market -2.9pp
P 11.9
F 14.9
V 14.1
3.0pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
54
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
16.6%Palantir 19.6%market -3.0pp
P 16.6
F 16.6
V 15.4
1.2pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
55 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
14.3%Palantir 17.4%market -3.1pp
P 14.3
F 14.5
V 16.1
1.8pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 2
17.9%Palantir 21.1%market -3.2pp
P 17.9
F 16.6
V 16.0
1.9pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 2
15.4%Palantir 18.9%market -3.4pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 15.7
0.2pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
58 IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
13.6%Palantir 17.2%market -3.6pp
P 13.6
F 14.6
V 16.1
2.5pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
14.7%Palantir 18.4%market -3.7pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 15.5
0.8pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
60 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
11.9%Palantir 16.0%market -4.1pp
P 11.9
F 15.5
V 15.6
3.7pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
61 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
15.8%Palantir 20.2%market -4.4pp
P 15.8
F 16.6
V 16.0
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
62 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
3.5%Palantir 8.0%market -4.5pp
P 3.5
F 4.8
V 11.5
8.0pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
63 IN
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
12.2%Palantir 16.7%market -4.5pp
P 12.2
F 14.9
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
14.3%Palantir 19.1%market -4.8pp
P 14.3
F 15.6
V 16.6
2.3pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
65 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
11.5%Palantir 17.0%market -5.4pp
P 11.5
F 14.5
V 16.4
4.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
66
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
13.7%Palantir 19.2%market -5.5pp
P 13.7
F 14.6
V 13.7
0.9pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
67 IN Triple
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
16.4%Palantir 22.0%market -5.6pp
P 16.4
F 16.6
V 14.2
2.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
68 IN Triple
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
16.0%Palantir 21.7%market -5.7pp
P 16.0
F 14.9
V 16.9
2.0pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
69 IN
ATH vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3
16.2%Palantir 22.0%market -5.7pp
P 16.2
F 14.9
V 15.6
1.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 2
14.9%Palantir 21.1%market -6.2pp
P 14.9
F 14.6
V 16.0
1.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
71 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
17.0%Palantir 23.8%market -6.8pp
P 17.0
F 14.9
V 16.8
2.1pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
72 IN
SEA vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 3
18.8%Palantir 26.3%market -7.5pp
P 18.8
F 14.6
V 16.5
4.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
73
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
16.1%Palantir 24.1%market -8.0pp
P 16.1
F 16.6
V 15.3
1.3pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
74 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
10.9%Palantir 19.2%market -8.3pp
P 10.9
F 14.5
V 14.0
3.6pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
75 IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 3
17.2%Palantir 26.0%market -8.8pp
P 17.2
F 16.3
V 17.8
1.5pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
76 IN
ATH vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1
14.4%Palantir 26.0%market -11.5pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 15.5
2.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
77 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
17.3%Palantir 29.8%market -12.6pp
P 17.3
F 16.6
V 18.5
1.8pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

776 sample flags
Status1676roster/transaction rows
Lineups234confirmed starters
Triple4cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.