Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-07 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
77
Matched
279
Lineups
234
HR BOARD 2026-07-07 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
21.1%Fangorn 12.7%market +8.4pp
P 18.6
F 21.1
V 13.7
7.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 3
16.3%Fangorn 9.3%market +7.0pp
P 16.4
F 16.3
V 12.6
3.8pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
03 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
21.1%Fangorn 14.2%market +6.9pp
P 18.8
F 21.1
V 15.0
6.1pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
04 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
14.9%Fangorn 8.7%market +6.2pp
P 12.3
F 14.9
V 13.1
2.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
05 IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 7
14.6%Fangorn 8.5%market +6.1pp
P 12.9
F 14.6
V 12.2
2.4pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
06 IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
14.5%Fangorn 8.7%market +5.8pp
P 10.3
F 14.5
V 13.5
4.2pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
07 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6
16.6%Fangorn 11.0%market +5.7pp
P 17.5
F 16.6
V 11.8
5.7pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
08
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5
15.6%Fangorn 11.1%market +4.6pp
P 14.8
F 15.6
V 16.0
1.2pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 7
14.9%Fangorn 10.4%market +4.5pp
P 12.3
F 14.9
V 14.7
2.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
10 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
14.9%Fangorn 10.5%market +4.4pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 11.7
3.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
11 IN
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
16.6%Fangorn 12.5%market +4.1pp
P 19.5
F 16.6
V 12.3
7.2pp 0.992xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 7
13.7%Fangorn 9.6%market +4.1pp
P 11.4
F 13.7
V 11.7
2.3pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
13 IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 11.7%market +3.8pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 12.7
2.8pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
14 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 13.0%market +3.6pp
P 16.2
F 16.6
V 14.2
2.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
15 IN
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 13.3%market +3.4pp
P 17.0
F 16.6
V 12.5
4.5pp 0.992xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
16 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
14.6%Fangorn 11.9%market +2.7pp
P 12.7
F 14.6
V 14.8
2.2pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 710 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 6
14.9%Fangorn 12.4%market +2.5pp
P 12.4
F 14.9
V 13.2
2.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
18 IN
SEA vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 5
16.3%Fangorn 13.8%market +2.5pp
P 18.1
F 16.3
V 15.1
3.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
19 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
15.5%Fangorn 13.1%market +2.4pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 13.0
2.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
20 IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
12.8%Fangorn 10.6%market +2.1pp
P 13.2
F 12.8
V 12.8
0.4pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
21 IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
16.3%Fangorn 14.7%market +1.6pp
P 19.6
F 16.3
V 18.0
3.3pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
22 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 13.5%market +1.5pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 14.6
1.1pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
23 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 13.6%market +1.3pp
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 13.9
1.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
24 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
14.6%Fangorn 13.5%market +1.2pp
P 13.2
F 14.6
V 16.4
3.2pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 5
14.5%Fangorn 13.5%market +1.0pp
P 13.1
F 14.5
V 14.9
1.8pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
26 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 15.6%market +1.0pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 14.6
3.9pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
27
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 14.7%market +0.8pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 15.0
0.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
28
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
15.6%Fangorn 14.8%market +0.8pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 14.6
2.4pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
29
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
16.6%Fangorn 17.1%market -0.5pp
P 19.7
F 16.6
V 16.4
3.3pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
16.3%Fangorn 17.0%market -0.7pp
P 19.5
F 16.3
V 14.8
4.8pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
31 IN
SEA vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 4
16.3%Fangorn 17.0%market -0.7pp
P 17.9
F 16.3
V 16.2
1.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
32 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 6.7
F 12.8
V 14.4
7.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
33 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 1
11.0%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.3pp
P 6.9
F 11.0
V 12.6
5.7pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
34 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
15.5%Fangorn 13.5%market +2.0pp
P 14.0
F 15.5
V 14.5
1.5pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
35 IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5
16.3%Fangorn 15.2%market +1.0pp
P 14.0
F 16.3
V 15.9
2.3pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
36 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 14.1%market +0.8pp
P 11.9
F 14.9
V 14.1
3.0pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
37 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
16.6%Fangorn 16.2%market +0.5pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 16.0
2.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
38 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 15.3%market -0.4pp
P 13.9
F 14.9
V 15.0
1.1pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
39 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 16.0%market -0.5pp
P 11.9
F 15.5
V 15.6
3.7pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
15.6%Fangorn 16.1%market -0.5pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 14.7
2.3pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
41 IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
16.3%Fangorn 17.1%market -0.8pp
P 14.8
F 16.3
V 15.2
1.5pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 1
16.3%Fangorn 17.2%market -0.9pp
P 16.4
F 16.3
V 15.0
1.4pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
43 IN
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
10.2%Fangorn 11.4%market -1.3pp
P 10.6
F 10.2
V 14.7
4.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 1
16.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -1.7pp
P 19.9
F 16.6
V 15.4
4.5pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
45 IN
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 16.7%market -1.8pp
P 12.2
F 14.9
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
46 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
16.6%Fangorn 18.5%market -1.9pp
P 20.3
F 16.6
V 16.5
3.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
47 IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 17.5%market -2.0pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
48 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 18.7%market -2.1pp
P 18.4
F 16.6
V 15.7
2.6pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
49 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 4
16.3%Fangorn 18.7%market -2.4pp
P 18.4
F 16.3
V 16.8
2.1pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
50 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
14.5%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.4pp
P 11.5
F 14.5
V 16.4
4.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 3
13.7%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.5pp
P 15.7
F 13.7
V 15.2
2.0pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
52 IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
16.3%Fangorn 18.9%market -2.6pp
P 19.0
F 16.3
V 17.9
2.7pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
53 IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
14.6%Fangorn 17.2%market -2.6pp
P 13.6
F 14.6
V 16.1
2.5pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
54 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
14.5%Fangorn 17.4%market -2.9pp
P 14.3
F 14.5
V 16.1
1.8pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
55
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
16.6%Fangorn 19.6%market -3.0pp
P 16.6
F 16.6
V 15.4
1.2pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
56 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
4.8%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.2pp
P 3.5
F 4.8
V 11.5
8.0pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 18.9%market -3.4pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 15.7
0.2pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -3.4pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 15.5
0.8pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
15.6%Fangorn 19.1%market -3.4pp
P 14.3
F 15.6
V 16.6
2.3pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
15.6%Fangorn 19.1%market -3.4pp
P 17.7
F 15.6
V 15.8
2.1pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
61 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 20.2%market -3.6pp
P 15.8
F 16.6
V 16.0
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
62 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 4
16.3%Fangorn 20.4%market -4.1pp
P 18.2
F 16.3
V 15.4
2.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 2
16.6%Fangorn 21.1%market -4.4pp
P 17.9
F 16.6
V 16.0
1.9pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
64 IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 19.4%market -4.5pp
P 16.7
F 14.9
V 15.4
1.8pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
65
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
14.6%Fangorn 19.2%market -4.6pp
P 13.7
F 14.6
V 13.7
0.9pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
66 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
14.5%Fangorn 19.2%market -4.7pp
P 10.9
F 14.5
V 14.0
3.6pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
67 IN
ATH vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 6
4.8%Fangorn 9.5%market -4.7pp
P 8.5
F 4.8
V 11.9
7.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 950 avg 3 books
68 IN Triple
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
16.6%Fangorn 22.0%market -5.3pp
P 16.4
F 16.6
V 14.2
2.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 2
14.6%Fangorn 21.1%market -6.4pp
P 14.9
F 14.6
V 16.0
1.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
70 IN Triple
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -6.8pp
P 16.0
F 14.9
V 16.9
2.0pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
71 IN
ATH vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 22.0%market -7.1pp
P 16.2
F 14.9
V 15.6
1.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
72
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
16.6%Fangorn 24.1%market -7.5pp
P 16.1
F 16.6
V 15.3
1.3pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
73 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 23.8%market -8.9pp
P 17.0
F 14.9
V 16.8
2.1pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
74 IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 3
16.3%Fangorn 26.0%market -9.7pp
P 17.2
F 16.3
V 17.8
1.5pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
75 IN
SEA vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 3
14.6%Fangorn 26.3%market -11.7pp
P 18.8
F 14.6
V 16.5
4.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
76 IN
ATH vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1
13.6%Fangorn 26.0%market -12.4pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 15.5
2.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
77 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
16.6%Fangorn 29.8%market -13.2pp
P 17.3
F 16.6
V 18.5
1.8pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

776 sample flags
Status1676roster/transaction rows
Lineups234confirmed starters
Triple4cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.