Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-07 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
77
Matched
279
Lineups
234
HR BOARD 2026-07-07 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5
16.0%Valinor 11.1%market +4.6pp
P 14.8
F 15.6
V 16.0
1.2pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
02 IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
13.5%Valinor 8.7%market +4.5pp
P 10.3
F 14.5
V 13.5
4.2pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
13.1%Valinor 8.7%market +4.1pp
P 12.3
F 14.9
V 13.1
2.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 7
14.7%Valinor 10.4%market +4.0pp
P 12.3
F 14.9
V 14.7
2.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
05 IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 7
12.2%Valinor 8.5%market +3.4pp
P 12.9
F 14.6
V 12.2
2.4pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 3
12.6%Valinor 9.3%market +3.0pp
P 16.4
F 16.3
V 12.6
3.8pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
07 IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
18.0%Valinor 14.7%market +2.7pp
P 19.6
F 16.3
V 18.0
3.3pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
08 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
14.8%Valinor 11.9%market +2.5pp
P 12.7
F 14.6
V 14.8
2.2pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 710 avg 3 books
09 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
16.4%Valinor 13.5%market +2.4pp
P 13.2
F 14.6
V 16.4
3.2pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
10 IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
12.8%Valinor 10.6%market +1.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.8
V 12.8
0.4pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 7
11.7%Valinor 9.6%market +1.7pp
P 11.4
F 13.7
V 11.7
2.3pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 5
14.9%Valinor 13.5%market +0.9pp
P 13.1
F 14.5
V 14.9
1.8pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
13 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
11.7%Valinor 10.5%market +0.8pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 11.7
3.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
14 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 3
14.2%Valinor 13.0%market +0.7pp
P 16.2
F 16.6
V 14.2
2.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
15 IN
SEA vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 5
15.1%Valinor 13.8%market +0.7pp
P 18.1
F 16.3
V 15.1
3.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
16 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 5
14.6%Valinor 13.5%market +0.7pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 14.6
1.1pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
17 IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
12.7%Valinor 11.7%market +0.6pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 12.7
2.8pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
18 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6
11.8%Valinor 11.0%market +0.4pp
P 17.5
F 16.6
V 11.8
5.7pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
19 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
13.7%Valinor 12.7%market +0.4pp
P 18.6
F 21.1
V 13.7
7.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
20 Lineup pending
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 6
13.2%Valinor 12.4%market +0.3pp
P 12.4
F 14.9
V 13.2
2.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
21 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
15.0%Valinor 14.2%market +0.2pp
P 18.8
F 21.1
V 15.0
6.1pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
22 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
13.9%Valinor 13.6%market -0.3pp
P 15.2
F 14.9
V 13.9
1.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
23
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
15.0%Valinor 14.9%market -0.4pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 15.0
0.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
24 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
13.0%Valinor 13.1%market -0.6pp
P 14.7
F 15.5
V 13.0
2.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
25 IN
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
12.3%Valinor 12.5%market -0.7pp
P 19.5
F 16.6
V 12.3
7.2pp 0.992xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
26 IN
SEA vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 4
16.2%Valinor 16.4%market -0.7pp
P 17.9
F 16.3
V 16.2
1.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
27
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
14.6%Valinor 15.0%market -0.9pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 14.6
2.4pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
28
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
16.4%Valinor 16.7%market -0.9pp
P 19.7
F 16.6
V 16.4
3.3pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
29 IN
STL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
12.5%Valinor 13.3%market -1.3pp
P 17.0
F 16.6
V 12.5
4.5pp 0.992xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
30 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3
14.6%Valinor 16.0%market -2.0pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 14.6
3.9pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
31 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
14.8%Valinor 16.5%market -2.3pp
P 19.5
F 16.3
V 14.8
4.8pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
32 IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 3
17.8%Valinor 25.5%market -8.5pp
P 17.2
F 16.3
V 17.8
1.5pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 280 avg 3 books
33
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
15.3%Valinor 23.6%market -9.1pp
P 16.1
F 16.6
V 15.3
1.3pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 310 avg 3 books
34 IN
ATH vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1
15.5%Valinor 25.4%market -10.8pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 15.5
2.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 280 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
18.5%Valinor 29.3%market -11.8pp
P 17.3
F 16.6
V 18.5
1.8pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
36 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
14.4%Valinor 7.7%market +6.4pp
P 6.7
F 12.8
V 14.4
7.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 1
12.6%Valinor 7.7%market +4.6pp
P 6.9
F 11.0
V 12.6
5.7pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38 IN
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
11.5%Valinor 7.7%market +3.5pp
P 3.5
F 4.8
V 11.5
8.0pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39 IN
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
14.7%Valinor 10.9%market +3.4pp
P 10.6
F 10.2
V 14.7
4.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
40 IN
ATH vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 6
11.9%Valinor 9.1%market +2.5pp
P 8.5
F 4.8
V 11.9
7.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
41 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
14.5%Valinor 13.5%market +0.5pp
P 14.0
F 15.5
V 14.5
1.5pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
42 IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5
15.9%Valinor 15.5%market -0.1pp
P 14.0
F 16.3
V 15.9
2.3pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
43 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
15.0%Valinor 14.8%market -0.3pp
P 13.9
F 14.9
V 15.0
1.1pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
44 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
16.4%Valinor 16.4%market -0.5pp
P 11.5
F 14.5
V 16.4
4.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
45 IN
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
15.6%Valinor 15.6%market -0.5pp
P 11.9
F 15.5
V 15.6
3.7pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
46 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5
14.1%Valinor 14.3%market -0.7pp
P 11.9
F 14.9
V 14.1
3.0pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 3
15.2%Valinor 15.7%market -1.1pp
P 15.7
F 13.7
V 15.2
2.0pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
48 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
16.0%Valinor 16.5%market -1.1pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 16.0
2.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
49 IN
PHI vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 18.4%market -1.1pp
P 19.0
F 16.3
V 17.9
2.7pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
50 IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
16.1%Valinor 16.8%market -1.2pp
P 13.6
F 14.6
V 16.1
2.5pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
51 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
16.1%Valinor 16.8%market -1.3pp
P 14.3
F 14.5
V 16.1
1.8pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
14.7%Valinor 15.7%market -1.6pp
P 17.0
F 15.6
V 14.7
2.3pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
53 IN
MIN vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
15.2%Valinor 16.2%market -1.7pp
P 12.2
F 14.9
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
54 IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
15.2%Valinor 16.5%market -1.8pp
P 14.8
F 16.3
V 15.2
1.5pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
55 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 4
16.8%Valinor 18.2%market -2.1pp
P 18.4
F 16.3
V 16.8
2.1pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
56 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
16.5%Valinor 18.1%market -2.2pp
P 20.3
F 16.6
V 16.5
3.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
57 IN
CLE vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
15.5%Valinor 17.1%market -2.2pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 1
15.0%Valinor 16.7%market -2.2pp
P 16.4
F 16.3
V 15.0
1.4pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
16.6%Valinor 18.6%market -2.7pp
P 14.3
F 15.6
V 16.6
2.3pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
15.5%Valinor 17.9%market -3.0pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 15.5
0.8pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 1
15.4%Valinor 17.9%market -3.1pp
P 19.9
F 16.6
V 15.4
4.5pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
62 IN
CHC vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
15.7%Valinor 18.2%market -3.1pp
P 18.4
F 16.6
V 15.7
2.6pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
SD vs AZZac Gallen · slot 2
15.7%Valinor 18.4%market -3.4pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 15.7
0.2pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
15.8%Valinor 18.6%market -3.4pp
P 17.7
F 15.6
V 15.8
2.1pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
65 IN
NYM vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
15.4%Valinor 18.9%market -4.2pp
P 16.7
F 14.9
V 15.4
1.8pp 0.901xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
66
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
15.4%Valinor 19.1%market -4.4pp
P 16.6
F 16.6
V 15.4
1.2pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
67 IN
DET vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
16.0%Valinor 19.7%market -4.4pp
P 15.8
F 16.6
V 16.0
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
68 IN Triple
ATL vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
16.9%Valinor 21.2%market -5.1pp
P 16.0
F 14.9
V 16.9
2.0pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
69 IN
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 4
15.4%Valinor 19.9%market -5.2pp
P 18.2
F 16.3
V 15.4
2.9pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
PIT vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 2
16.0%Valinor 20.5%market -5.3pp
P 14.9
F 14.6
V 16.0
1.4pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGermán Márquez · slot 2
16.0%Valinor 20.5%market -5.3pp
P 17.9
F 16.6
V 16.0
1.9pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
72 IN
TEX vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
14.0%Valinor 18.8%market -5.4pp
P 10.9
F 14.5
V 14.0
3.6pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
73
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
13.7%Valinor 18.8%market -5.7pp
P 13.7
F 14.6
V 13.7
0.9pp 0.957xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
74 IN
ATH vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3
15.6%Valinor 21.5%market -6.6pp
P 16.2
F 14.9
V 15.6
1.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
75 IN
BAL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
16.8%Valinor 23.3%market -7.3pp
P 17.0
F 14.9
V 16.8
2.1pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 315 avg 3 books
76 IN Triple
TB vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 21.5%market -8.0pp
P 16.4
F 16.6
V 14.2
2.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
77 IN
SEA vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 3
16.5%Valinor 25.8%market -10.1pp
P 18.8
F 14.6
V 16.5
4.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books

Data context

776 sample flags
Status1676roster/transaction rows
Lineups234confirmed starters
Triple4cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.