Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-15 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
82
Matched
294
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-15 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
AZ vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
14.0%Palantir 9.3%market +4.7pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 7.8
6.2pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
15.1%Palantir 11.0%market +4.2pp
P 15.1
F 13.4
V 10.6
4.5pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
03 IN
MIA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
13.4%Palantir 10.1%market +3.2pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 14.8
1.5pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
04 IN
SEA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 6
12.7%Palantir 9.8%market +3.0pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 9.3
4.1pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
05 IN
HOU vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
13.7%Palantir 11.2%market +2.5pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 11.3
2.4pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
06 IN
STL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
15.6%Palantir 13.1%market +2.5pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 12.9
2.7pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
07 IN
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
12.9%Palantir 10.5%market +2.4pp
P 12.9
F 12.8
V 15.1
2.3pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
08
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
14.6%Palantir 12.7%market +1.9pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 13.9
1.3pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
09 IN
NYM vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 3
13.6%Palantir 11.7%market +1.9pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 10.8
2.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
ATH vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 6
10.6%Palantir 9.1%market +1.5pp
P 10.6
F 4.4
V 9.9
6.2pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
11 IN
SEA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 5
15.1%Palantir 13.8%market +1.3pp
P 15.1
F 13.4
V 13.9
1.7pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
12
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
14.4%Palantir 13.3%market +1.1pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 18.1
4.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
13 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
15.4%Palantir 14.4%market +1.1pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 13.7
2.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
14 IN
TB vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
13.8%Palantir 12.7%market +1.1pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 11.2
2.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
15 IN
CIN vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
16.1%Palantir 15.0%market +1.0pp
P 16.1
F 13.5
V 14.8
2.6pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
16 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
10.3%Palantir 9.7%market +0.7pp
P 10.3
F 13.2
V 14.6
4.3pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
17 IN
PIT vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
11.5%Palantir 11.8%market -0.3pp
P 11.5
F 13.3
V 9.1
4.2pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
18
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
13.0%Palantir 13.4%market -0.4pp
P 13.0
F 13.0
V 12.0
1.0pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
19 IN
CIN vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
12.3%Palantir 12.8%market -0.5pp
P 12.3
F 13.3
V 14.3
2.0pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
20 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
15.7%Palantir 16.4%market -0.7pp
P 15.7
F 13.4
V 15.2
2.2pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
21 IN
HOU vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
14.9%Palantir 15.8%market -0.8pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 15.4
2.0pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
12.8%Palantir 13.6%market -0.8pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 9.9
3.4pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
23 IN
TB vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
13.9%Palantir 14.9%market -1.0pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.0
0.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
MIA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
13.6%Palantir 14.7%market -1.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 14.7
1.4pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
25 IN
MIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 6
11.7%Palantir 12.9%market -1.2pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 11.1
2.2pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
26 IN
ATL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
12.8%Palantir 14.1%market -1.2pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 15.1
2.3pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
27 IN
PIT vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
12.6%Palantir 14.1%market -1.5pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.6pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
28
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
13.9%Palantir 15.5%market -1.6pp
P 13.9
F 13.3
V 13.0
0.9pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
29 IN
NYM vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 5
11.9%Palantir 13.8%market -1.9pp
P 11.9
F 13.2
V 13.0
1.3pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
30 IN
SEA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
15.0%Palantir 17.0%market -1.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
31 IN
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
15.0%Palantir 17.0%market -2.0pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 11.2
3.7pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
32 IN
TB vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
12.2%Palantir 14.2%market -2.0pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 11.5
1.7pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
33
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 4
13.3%Palantir 15.4%market -2.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 13.3
0.1pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
SD vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
13.1%Palantir 15.4%market -2.2pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 15.3
2.2pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
35 IN
SEA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
15.6%Palantir 18.0%market -2.4pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 15.2
2.2pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
36 IN
AZ vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
15.6%Palantir 18.4%market -2.7pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 12.6
3.0pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
37 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
12.0%Palantir 14.8%market -2.8pp
P 12.0
F 13.4
V 14.0
2.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
38 IN
SF vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 7
8.7%Palantir 7.7%market +1.0pp
P 8.7
F 12.8
V 8.0
4.8pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39 IN
MIA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
8.7%Palantir 7.7%market +1.0pp
P 8.7
F 12.9
V 11.6
4.3pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 6
9.7%Palantir 9.1%market +0.6pp
P 9.7
F 13.2
V 6.1
7.1pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
41 IN
SF vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
13.7%Palantir 13.1%market +0.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.4
1.2pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
42 IN
SF vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
8.2%Palantir 7.7%market +0.5pp
P 8.2
F 12.9
V 11.2
4.7pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
7.8%Palantir 7.7%market +0.2pp
P 7.8
F 12.8
V 12.4
5.0pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
PIT vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
7.6%Palantir 8.0%market -0.4pp
P 7.6
F 12.1
V 11.7
4.5pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
MIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
10.8%Palantir 11.4%market -0.7pp
P 10.8
F 11.8
V 12.5
1.8pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
46 IN
COL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
8.8%Palantir 10.3%market -1.5pp
P 8.8
F 12.9
V 9.4
4.1pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
47 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
10.6%Palantir 12.8%market -2.2pp
P 10.6
F 13.2
V 8.8
4.4pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
48 IN
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
13.7%Palantir 16.1%market -2.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 10.7
3.1pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
COL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
9.8%Palantir 12.6%market -2.8pp
P 9.8
F 12.9
V 11.1
3.2pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
50 IN
SD vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 3
12.4%Palantir 15.3%market -2.9pp
P 12.4
F 13.0
V 14.9
2.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
51 IN
COL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
10.2%Palantir 13.1%market -2.9pp
P 10.2
F 12.8
V 11.0
2.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
52 IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
12.3%Palantir 15.3%market -3.0pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 13.0
0.9pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
53 IN
NYM vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 4
13.8%Palantir 17.1%market -3.2pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 14.6
1.2pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
54 IN
HOU vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
12.6%Palantir 16.0%market -3.4pp
P 12.6
F 13.3
V 13.9
1.3pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
55 IN
SD vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
14.4%Palantir 17.9%market -3.5pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 15.4
2.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
56 IN
TB vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
4.3%Palantir 8.0%market -3.7pp
P 4.3
F 4.4
V 7.0
2.7pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
57 IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
14.6%Palantir 18.7%market -4.1pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 13.5
1.2pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
SF vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
13.6%Palantir 17.7%market -4.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
59 IN
HOU vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
14.0%Palantir 18.2%market -4.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 14.9
1.6pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
60 IN
NYM vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 2
14.9%Palantir 19.4%market -4.5pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
12.9%Palantir 17.7%market -4.8pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 9.5
3.7pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
14.1%Palantir 19.1%market -5.0pp
P 14.1
F 13.3
V 12.1
2.0pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
63 IN
MIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
11.6%Palantir 16.7%market -5.1pp
P 11.6
F 13.2
V 13.8
2.2pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
64 IN
ATL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4
12.3%Palantir 17.5%market -5.2pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 15.8
3.5pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
COL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
12.5%Palantir 18.0%market -5.5pp
P 12.5
F 13.3
V 13.2
0.8pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
66 IN
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
12.6%Palantir 18.4%market -5.8pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 11.3
1.9pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
67 IN
SD vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
13.8%Palantir 19.6%market -5.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
68 IN
ATL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
14.2%Palantir 20.0%market -5.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 15.8
2.4pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
69 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
11.5%Palantir 17.5%market -6.0pp
P 11.5
F 13.2
V 10.2
3.0pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
AZ vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
14.7%Palantir 21.1%market -6.4pp
P 14.7
F 13.4
V 13.3
1.3pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
71 IN
PIT vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
13.8%Palantir 20.4%market -6.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 12.5
1.3pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
72 IN
SF vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
13.9%Palantir 20.8%market -7.0pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
73 IN
HOU vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
13.7%Palantir 20.8%market -7.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 15.6
2.2pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
74 IN
ATL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
13.6%Palantir 20.8%market -7.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 15.6
2.4pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
75
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
12.0%Palantir 19.2%market -7.2pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 8.8
4.3pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
76 IN
CIN vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
14.0%Palantir 21.7%market -7.7pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 15.9
2.6pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
77 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
11.4%Palantir 19.2%market -7.9pp
P 11.4
F 13.2
V 14.2
2.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
78 IN
MIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
14.0%Palantir 22.0%market -8.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.0pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
79 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2
14.3%Palantir 22.5%market -8.1pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 15.6
2.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
80 IN
TB vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4
12.7%Palantir 22.0%market -9.3pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 11.9
1.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
81 IN
SEA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 3
15.5%Palantir 26.3%market -10.8pp
P 15.5
F 13.2
V 15.7
2.5pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
82 IN
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
13.9%Palantir 29.8%market -15.9pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.9
1.5pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status2505roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.