Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-15 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
82
Matched
294
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-15 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
14.6%Valinor 9.7%market +4.6pp
P 10.3
F 13.2
V 14.6
4.3pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
02
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
18.1%Valinor 13.3%market +4.3pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 18.1
4.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
03 IN
MIA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
14.8%Valinor 10.1%market +4.3pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 14.8
1.5pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
04 IN
WSH vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
15.1%Valinor 10.5%market +4.3pp
P 12.9
F 12.8
V 15.1
2.3pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
05 IN
CIN vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
14.3%Valinor 12.3%market +1.6pp
P 12.3
F 13.3
V 14.3
2.0pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
06 IN
ATL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
15.1%Valinor 13.5%market +1.1pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 15.1
2.3pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
07
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
13.9%Valinor 12.7%market +0.7pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 13.9
1.3pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
ATH vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 6
9.9%Valinor 9.1%market +0.5pp
P 10.6
F 4.4
V 9.9
6.2pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
MIA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
14.7%Valinor 14.0%market +0.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 14.7
1.4pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
SD vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
15.3%Valinor 14.9%market -0.1pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 15.3
2.2pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
11 IN
HOU vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
11.3%Valinor 11.2%market -0.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 11.3
2.4pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
12 IN
HOU vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
15.4%Valinor 15.3%market -0.5pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 15.4
2.0pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
13 IN
SEA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 5
13.9%Valinor 14.0%market -0.6pp
P 15.1
F 13.4
V 13.9
1.7pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
14 IN
NYM vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 5
13.0%Valinor 13.3%market -0.8pp
P 11.9
F 13.2
V 13.0
1.3pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
15 IN
STL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
12.9%Valinor 13.2%market -0.8pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 12.9
2.7pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
16 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
14.0%Valinor 14.3%market -0.8pp
P 12.0
F 13.4
V 14.0
2.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
17 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
10.6%Valinor 11.0%market -0.8pp
P 15.1
F 13.4
V 10.6
4.5pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
18 IN
SEA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 6
9.3%Valinor 9.9%market -0.9pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 9.3
4.1pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 875 avg 3 books
19 IN
CIN vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
14.8%Valinor 15.3%market -1.1pp
P 16.1
F 13.5
V 14.8
2.6pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
20 IN
PIT vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
12.9%Valinor 13.6%market -1.2pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.6pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
21 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
13.7%Valinor 14.5%market -1.3pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 13.7
2.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
22 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
15.2%Valinor 16.0%market -1.4pp
P 15.7
F 13.4
V 15.2
2.2pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
23 IN
NYM vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 3
10.8%Valinor 11.7%market -1.4pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 10.8
2.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
24
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
12.0%Valinor 13.0%market -1.4pp
P 13.0
F 13.0
V 12.0
1.0pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
25 IN
SEA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
15.2%Valinor 16.4%market -1.7pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
26 IN
MIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 6
11.1%Valinor 12.4%market -1.8pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 11.1
2.2pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
27 IN
TB vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
13.0%Valinor 14.4%market -1.9pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.0
0.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
28 IN
AZ vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
7.8%Valinor 9.5%market -2.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 7.8
6.2pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
29
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 4
13.3%Valinor 14.9%market -2.1pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 13.3
0.1pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
30 IN
TB vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
11.2%Valinor 13.3%market -2.1pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 11.2
2.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
31
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
13.0%Valinor 15.0%market -2.5pp
P 13.9
F 13.3
V 13.0
0.9pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
32 IN
TB vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
11.5%Valinor 13.6%market -2.7pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 11.5
1.7pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
33 IN
PIT vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
9.1%Valinor 11.8%market -2.7pp
P 11.5
F 13.3
V 9.1
4.2pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
34 IN
SEA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
15.2%Valinor 17.5%market -3.0pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 15.2
2.2pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
9.9%Valinor 13.1%market -3.7pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 9.9
3.4pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
36 IN
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
11.2%Valinor 16.5%market -5.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 11.2
3.7pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
37 IN
AZ vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
12.6%Valinor 17.9%market -5.9pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 12.6
3.0pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
38 IN
TB vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4
11.9%Valinor 21.5%market -10.3pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 11.9
1.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
39 IN
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
14.9%Valinor 29.3%market -15.4pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.9
1.5pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
40 IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
12.4%Valinor 7.7%market +4.5pp
P 7.8
F 12.8
V 12.4
5.0pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41 IN
PIT vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
11.7%Valinor 7.7%market +3.6pp
P 7.6
F 12.1
V 11.7
4.5pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42 IN
MIA vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
11.6%Valinor 7.7%market +3.6pp
P 8.7
F 12.9
V 11.6
4.3pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 IN
SF vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
11.2%Valinor 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 8.2
F 12.9
V 11.2
4.7pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
MIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
12.5%Valinor 10.9%market +1.2pp
P 10.8
F 11.8
V 12.5
1.8pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
45 IN
SF vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 7
8.0%Valinor 7.7%market -0.0pp
P 8.7
F 12.8
V 8.0
4.8pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
SD vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 3
14.9%Valinor 14.8%market -0.3pp
P 12.4
F 13.0
V 14.9
2.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
47 IN
COL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
9.4%Valinor 9.9%market -0.9pp
P 8.8
F 12.9
V 9.4
4.1pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
48 IN
TB vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
7.0%Valinor 7.7%market -1.0pp
P 4.3
F 4.4
V 7.0
2.7pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49 IN
SF vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
12.4%Valinor 13.2%market -1.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.4
1.2pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
COL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
11.1%Valinor 12.6%market -1.5pp
P 9.8
F 12.9
V 11.1
3.2pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
51 IN
ATL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4
15.8%Valinor 17.1%market -1.9pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 15.8
3.5pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
52 IN
COL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
11.0%Valinor 13.1%market -2.1pp
P 10.2
F 12.8
V 11.0
2.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
53 IN
HOU vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
13.9%Valinor 15.5%market -2.1pp
P 12.6
F 13.3
V 13.9
1.3pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
54 IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
13.0%Valinor 14.8%market -2.3pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 13.0
0.9pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
55 IN
NYM vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 4
14.6%Valinor 16.5%market -2.5pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 14.6
1.2pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
56 IN
SD vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
15.4%Valinor 17.4%market -2.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 15.4
2.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
57 IN
MIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
13.8%Valinor 16.2%market -3.0pp
P 11.6
F 13.2
V 13.8
2.2pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
58 IN
HOU vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
14.9%Valinor 17.7%market -3.5pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 14.9
1.6pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
SF vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 17.1%market -3.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
60 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 6
6.1%Valinor 9.2%market -3.5pp
P 9.7
F 13.2
V 6.1
7.1pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
61 IN
SD vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
16.1%Valinor 19.1%market -3.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
62 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
8.8%Valinor 12.3%market -4.0pp
P 10.6
F 13.2
V 8.8
4.4pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
63 IN
ATL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
15.8%Valinor 19.3%market -4.2pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 15.8
2.4pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
64 IN
NYM vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 2
15.0%Valinor 18.9%market -4.6pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
COL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
13.2%Valinor 17.4%market -4.8pp
P 12.5
F 13.3
V 13.2
0.8pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
66 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 18.8%market -5.2pp
P 11.4
F 13.2
V 14.2
2.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
67 IN
CHC vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
13.5%Valinor 18.2%market -5.4pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 13.5
1.2pp 0.988xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
68 IN
ATL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
15.6%Valinor 20.3%market -5.4pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 15.6
2.4pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
69 IN
HOU vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
15.6%Valinor 20.3%market -5.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 15.6
2.2pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
70 IN
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
10.7%Valinor 15.7%market -5.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 10.7
3.1pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
71 IN
CIN vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
15.9%Valinor 21.2%market -6.1pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 15.9
2.6pp 1.098xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
72 IN
SF vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
14.7%Valinor 20.3%market -6.4pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
73 IN
TEX vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2
15.6%Valinor 22.0%market -7.1pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 15.6
2.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
74 Lineup pending
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
12.1%Valinor 18.6%market -7.1pp
P 14.1
F 13.3
V 12.1
2.0pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
75 IN
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
11.3%Valinor 17.9%market -7.2pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 11.3
1.9pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
76 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
10.2%Valinor 17.1%market -7.5pp
P 11.5
F 13.2
V 10.2
3.0pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
77 IN
MIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
14.4%Valinor 21.5%market -7.8pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.0pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
AZ vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
13.3%Valinor 20.5%market -7.9pp
P 14.7
F 13.4
V 13.3
1.3pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
79 IN
PIT vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
12.5%Valinor 19.9%market -8.2pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 12.5
1.3pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
80 Lineup pending
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
9.5%Valinor 17.1%market -8.2pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 9.5
3.7pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
81
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
8.8%Valinor 18.8%market -10.6pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 8.8
4.3pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
82 IN
SEA vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 3
15.7%Valinor 25.8%market -11.0pp
P 15.5
F 13.2
V 15.7
2.5pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status2505roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.