Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
324
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-21 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 3
12.4%Fangorn 8.9%market +3.6pp
P 11.9
F 12.4
V 9.3
3.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
02 IN
CLE vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 2
12.1%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.4pp
P 11.5
F 12.1
V 11.7
0.6pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03 IN
SEA vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 6
11.7%Fangorn 9.2%market +2.6pp
P 9.1
F 11.7
V 9.3
2.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 955 avg 3 books
04 IN
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.0pp
P 9.8
F 11.9
V 9.5
2.4pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
05 IN
COL vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
11.9%Fangorn 9.9%market +2.0pp
P 11.1
F 11.9
V 11.2
0.7pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
06 IN
MIA vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 2
11.9%Fangorn 10.1%market +1.8pp
P 11.0
F 11.9
V 12.1
1.1pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
HOU vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
12.6%Fangorn 11.2%market +1.4pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 10.4
2.8pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
08 IN
COL vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 7
11.3%Fangorn 10.0%market +1.3pp
P 13.0
F 11.3
V 9.5
3.5pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 870 avg 3 books
09 IN
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
12.6%Fangorn 11.7%market +0.9pp
P 12.6
F 12.6
V 15.0
2.4pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
10 IN
NYM vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
12.6%Fangorn 11.7%market +0.8pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 11.8
2.2pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
12.4%Fangorn 11.7%market +0.7pp
P 11.9
F 12.4
V 14.5
2.6pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
12 IN
PIT vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 6
11.9%Fangorn 11.3%market +0.6pp
P 10.3
F 11.9
V 9.0
2.9pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
13 IN
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
11.3%Fangorn 11.1%market +0.2pp
P 13.5
F 11.3
V 10.9
2.6pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
14 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
12.6%Fangorn 12.8%market -0.3pp
P 11.1
F 12.6
V 7.4
5.1pp 1.036xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
15
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
11.7%Fangorn 12.2%market -0.5pp
P 10.6
F 11.7
V 11.3
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
16 IN
BOS vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
11.7%Fangorn 12.3%market -0.5pp
P 11.3
F 11.7
V 10.6
1.2pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
17 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 12.4%market -0.6pp
P 11.1
F 11.9
V 12.9
1.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
12.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.6pp
P 12.4
F 12.4
V 12.3
0.1pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
19 IN
MIL vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
12.4%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.1pp
P 12.5
F 12.4
V 11.8
0.7pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
20 IN
STL vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 13.7%market -1.1pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 11.8
2.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
21 IN
COL vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 13.2%market -1.4pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.8
0.9pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 655 avg 3 books
22 IN
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
14.1%Fangorn 15.6%market -1.5pp
P 14.5
F 14.1
V 14.3
0.4pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
23 IN
COL vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.6pp
P 12.8
F 11.9
V 13.0
1.1pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.6pp
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 12.9
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
25 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
12.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.7pp
P 12.2
F 12.4
V 9.1
3.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
26
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
12.6%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.0pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 13.1
1.6pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
27 IN
NYM vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
11.7%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.1pp
P 11.4
F 11.7
V 14.4
3.1pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
28 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.2pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 11.3
0.6pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
29 IN
PIT vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.2pp
P 11.3
F 11.9
V 12.8
1.5pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
30 IN
SEA vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 15.0%market -2.6pp
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 13.2
0.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
31 IN
MIA vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.7pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 12.0
0.1pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
32 IN
TB vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.9pp
P 13.1
F 12.6
V 13.2
0.6pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
33
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
12.4%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.1pp
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.4pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
34 IN
CHC vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
12.1%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.2pp
P 11.5
F 12.1
V 13.5
2.0pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
35 IN
HOU vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
12.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.2pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 14.0
1.8pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
36 IN
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
12.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.2pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 13.7
1.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
37 IN
HOU vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.6pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 13.5
1.4pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
38
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
12.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.8pp
P 14.4
F 12.9
V 14.2
1.5pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
39 IN
HOU vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
12.4%Fangorn 18.2%market -5.8pp
P 13.4
F 12.4
V 16.0
3.6pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
40 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
11.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.5pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.3pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
41 IN
NYM vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.9pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 15.4
2.8pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
42 IN
CLE vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 1
12.6%Fangorn 20.4%market -7.9pp
P 14.9
F 12.6
V 16.1
3.5pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
12.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.5pp
P 9.8
F 12.1
V 8.6
3.6pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
SF vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
11.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 7.4
F 11.1
V 11.0
3.7pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
CHC vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
11.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 7.5
F 11.1
V 13.2
5.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
10.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 7.4
F 10.9
V 12.8
5.3pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47 IN
SF vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 7
10.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 7.9
F 10.9
V 7.6
3.3pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
MIL vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
11.9%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.2pp
P 9.9
F 11.9
V 8.2
3.7pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
49 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 6
12.1%Fangorn 9.1%market +3.0pp
P 10.3
F 12.1
V 5.9
6.2pp 1.036xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
50 IN
PIT vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.4
F 9.9
V 9.8
3.4pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
51 IN
MIA vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 1
9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.4
F 9.9
V 11.7
5.3pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
DET vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
14.1%Fangorn 13.6%market +0.5pp
P 15.1
F 14.1
V 12.3
2.8pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
53 IN
SF vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
12.4%Fangorn 13.7%market -1.3pp
P 12.2
F 12.4
V 11.0
1.4pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
54 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
12.4%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.6pp
P 11.0
F 12.4
V 11.3
1.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
MIL vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.7pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 12.9
0.9pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
56 IN
BOS vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
11.9%Fangorn 15.9%market -4.0pp
P 11.6
F 11.9
V 13.4
1.8pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
57 IN
BOS vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
12.1%Fangorn 16.3%market -4.2pp
P 11.9
F 12.1
V 12.9
1.0pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
58 IN
SEA vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 16.1%market -4.3pp
P 11.7
F 11.9
V 13.9
2.3pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
59 IN
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
12.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 12.1
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
60 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -5.1pp
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 12.1
1.2pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
61 IN
DET vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
12.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.1pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 14.7
2.2pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
12.1%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.6pp
P 12.7
F 12.1
V 9.2
3.5pp 1.036xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
63 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 3
12.1%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.6pp
P 11.0
F 12.1
V 13.8
2.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
64 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
12.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.6pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 13.6
1.2pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
65 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 17.5%market -5.7pp
P 11.3
F 11.9
V 9.6
2.3pp 1.036xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
66 IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
14.1%Fangorn 19.8%market -5.7pp
P 14.0
F 14.1
V 13.9
0.3pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
67 IN
SF vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.8pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 11.3
0.8pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
68 IN
CHC vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
12.6%Fangorn 18.7%market -6.1pp
P 13.7
F 12.6
V 14.3
1.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
69 IN
SEA vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
12.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -6.3pp
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 14.6
2.2pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
70 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
12.1%Fangorn 19.4%market -7.3pp
P 12.6
F 12.1
V 12.8
0.6pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
71
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
12.6%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.3pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 13.1
0.7pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
72 IN
HOU vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2
12.6%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.3pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 16.7
4.2pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
73 IN
PIT vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
12.1%Fangorn 20.4%market -8.3pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 12.7
0.6pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
74 IN
SF vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
11.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -9.0pp
P 12.4
F 11.9
V 12.6
0.7pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
75 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
12.1%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.6pp
P 13.3
F 12.1
V 13.1
1.1pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
76 IN
TB vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
12.6%Fangorn 22.7%market -10.2pp
P 12.1
F 12.6
V 12.8
0.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
77 IN
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
11.9%Fangorn 22.5%market -10.6pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 14.5
2.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
78 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
11.9%Fangorn 23.0%market -11.1pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 16.7
4.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
79 IN
SEA vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
11.7%Fangorn 25.6%market -13.9pp
P 12.6
F 11.7
V 14.3
2.6pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2475roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.