Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-21 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
324
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-21 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
15.0%Valinor 11.7%market +2.9pp
P 12.6
F 12.6
V 15.0
2.4pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
02 IN
CLE vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 2
11.7%Valinor 8.7%market +2.7pp
P 11.5
F 12.1
V 11.7
0.6pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
14.5%Valinor 11.7%market +2.4pp
P 11.9
F 12.4
V 14.5
2.6pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
04 IN
MIA vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 2
12.1%Valinor 10.1%market +1.6pp
P 11.0
F 11.9
V 12.1
1.1pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
05 IN
COL vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 1
11.2%Valinor 9.9%market +0.9pp
P 11.1
F 11.9
V 11.2
0.7pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
06 IN
NYM vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
14.4%Valinor 13.2%market +0.7pp
P 11.4
F 11.7
V 14.4
3.1pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
07 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
12.9%Valinor 11.9%market +0.6pp
P 11.1
F 11.9
V 12.9
1.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
08 IN
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 3
9.3%Valinor 9.0%market -0.1pp
P 11.9
F 12.4
V 9.3
3.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 965 avg 3 books
09 IN
NYM vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
11.8%Valinor 11.7%market -0.4pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 11.8
2.2pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
10 IN
SEA vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 6
9.3%Valinor 9.3%market -0.4pp
P 9.1
F 11.7
V 9.3
2.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 930 avg 3 books
11 IN
COL vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
12.8%Valinor 12.7%market -0.4pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.8
0.9pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
12 IN
COL vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
13.0%Valinor 13.1%market -0.5pp
P 12.8
F 11.9
V 13.0
1.1pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 640 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
12.9%Valinor 13.0%market -0.6pp
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 12.9
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
14 IN
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
10.9%Valinor 11.1%market -0.7pp
P 13.5
F 11.3
V 10.9
2.6pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
12.3%Valinor 13.0%market -0.7pp
P 12.4
F 12.4
V 12.3
0.1pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
16 IN
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
9.5%Valinor 10.0%market -0.9pp
P 9.8
F 11.9
V 9.5
2.4pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
17
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
11.3%Valinor 11.7%market -0.9pp
P 10.6
F 11.7
V 11.3
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
18 IN
COL vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 7
9.5%Valinor 10.0%market -1.0pp
P 13.0
F 11.3
V 9.5
3.5pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 860 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
HOU vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
10.4%Valinor 11.2%market -1.2pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 10.4
2.8pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
20 IN
PIT vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 5
12.8%Valinor 13.6%market -1.3pp
P 11.3
F 11.9
V 12.8
1.5pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
21 IN
ATH vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
14.3%Valinor 15.1%market -1.3pp
P 14.5
F 14.1
V 14.3
0.4pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
22
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
13.1%Valinor 14.1%market -1.5pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 13.1
1.6pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
23
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
13.9%Valinor 15.0%market -1.6pp
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.4pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
24 IN
BOS vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
10.6%Valinor 11.8%market -1.7pp
P 11.3
F 11.7
V 10.6
1.2pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
25 IN
CHC vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
13.5%Valinor 14.8%market -1.7pp
P 11.5
F 12.1
V 13.5
2.0pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
26 IN
MIL vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
11.8%Valinor 13.5%market -1.8pp
P 12.5
F 12.4
V 11.8
0.7pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
27 IN
SEA vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
13.2%Valinor 14.5%market -1.9pp
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 13.2
0.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
28 IN
HOU vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
14.0%Valinor 15.3%market -1.9pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 14.0
1.8pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
29 IN
STL vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
11.8%Valinor 13.2%market -1.9pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 11.8
2.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
30 IN
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
13.7%Valinor 15.2%market -2.0pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 13.7
1.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
31 IN
TB vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
13.2%Valinor 15.0%market -2.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.6
V 13.2
0.6pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
32 IN
HOU vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
16.0%Valinor 17.7%market -2.4pp
P 13.4
F 12.4
V 16.0
3.6pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
33 IN
HOU vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
13.5%Valinor 15.5%market -2.5pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 13.5
1.4pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
34 IN
MIA vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 4
12.0%Valinor 14.1%market -2.6pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 12.0
0.1pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
35 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
11.3%Valinor 14.1%market -2.8pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 11.3
0.6pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
36 IN
PIT vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 6
9.0%Valinor 11.8%market -2.8pp
P 10.3
F 11.9
V 9.0
2.9pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
37 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
15.2%Valinor 17.7%market -3.2pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 15.2
3.3pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
38
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
14.2%Valinor 17.2%market -3.7pp
P 14.4
F 12.9
V 14.2
1.5pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
39 IN
NYM vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
15.4%Valinor 18.9%market -4.2pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 15.4
2.8pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
40 IN
CLE vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 1
16.1%Valinor 19.9%market -4.5pp
P 14.9
F 12.6
V 16.1
3.5pp 1.130xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
41 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
9.1%Valinor 13.6%market -5.0pp
P 12.2
F 12.4
V 9.1
3.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
42 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
7.4%Valinor 12.3%market -5.4pp
P 11.1
F 12.6
V 7.4
5.1pp 1.036xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
43 IN
TB vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
12.8%Valinor 22.2%market -10.1pp
P 12.1
F 12.6
V 12.8
0.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
44 IN
SEA vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
14.3%Valinor 25.1%market -11.7pp
P 12.6
F 11.7
V 14.3
2.6pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 285 avg 3 books
45 IN
CHC vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
13.2%Valinor 7.7%market +5.2pp
P 7.5
F 11.1
V 13.2
5.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
12.8%Valinor 7.7%market +4.8pp
P 7.4
F 10.9
V 12.8
5.3pp 1.080xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47 IN
MIA vs WSHBrad Lord · slot 1
11.7%Valinor 7.7%market +3.7pp
P 6.4
F 9.9
V 11.7
5.3pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
SF vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
11.0%Valinor 7.7%market +3.0pp
P 7.4
F 11.1
V 11.0
3.7pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49 IN
PIT vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
9.8%Valinor 7.7%market +1.8pp
P 6.4
F 9.9
V 9.8
3.4pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
8.6%Valinor 7.7%market +0.5pp
P 9.8
F 12.1
V 8.6
3.6pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
51 IN
SF vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 7
7.6%Valinor 7.7%market -0.4pp
P 7.9
F 10.9
V 7.6
3.3pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
52 IN
MIL vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
8.2%Valinor 8.9%market -1.1pp
P 9.9
F 11.9
V 8.2
3.7pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 980 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
DET vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
12.3%Valinor 13.8%market -2.0pp
P 15.1
F 14.1
V 12.3
2.8pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
54 IN
SEA vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 4
13.9%Valinor 15.6%market -2.2pp
P 11.7
F 11.9
V 13.9
2.3pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
55 IN
BOS vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
13.4%Valinor 15.3%market -2.5pp
P 11.6
F 11.9
V 13.4
1.8pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
56 IN
SF vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
11.0%Valinor 13.2%market -2.7pp
P 12.2
F 12.4
V 11.0
1.4pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
57 IN
DET vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
14.7%Valinor 17.1%market -3.0pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 14.7
2.2pp 1.026xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
MIL vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
12.9%Valinor 15.7%market -3.4pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 12.9
0.9pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
59 IN
BOS vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
12.9%Valinor 15.7%market -3.4pp
P 11.9
F 12.1
V 12.9
1.0pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
60 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 6
5.9%Valinor 9.2%market -3.7pp
P 10.3
F 12.1
V 5.9
6.2pp 1.036xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
61 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 3
13.8%Valinor 17.1%market -3.9pp
P 11.0
F 12.1
V 13.8
2.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
62 IN
SEA vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
14.6%Valinor 18.2%market -4.3pp
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 14.6
2.2pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
63 IN
HOU vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2
16.7%Valinor 20.3%market -4.3pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 16.7
4.2pp 1.114xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
64 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
13.6%Valinor 17.4%market -4.4pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 13.6
1.2pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
65 IN
CHC vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
14.3%Valinor 18.2%market -4.6pp
P 13.7
F 12.6
V 14.3
1.7pp 0.997xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
66 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
12.1%Valinor 16.4%market -4.9pp
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 12.1
1.2pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
67 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
11.3%Valinor 15.6%market -4.9pp
P 11.0
F 12.4
V 11.3
1.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
68 IN
AZ vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
12.1%Valinor 16.4%market -4.9pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 12.1
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
69 IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
13.9%Valinor 19.3%market -6.2pp
P 14.0
F 14.1
V 13.9
0.3pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
70 IN
SF vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
11.3%Valinor 17.1%market -6.4pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 11.3
0.8pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
71 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
16.7%Valinor 22.4%market -6.6pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 16.7
4.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
72 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
12.8%Valinor 18.8%market -6.6pp
P 12.6
F 12.1
V 12.8
0.6pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
73
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
13.1%Valinor 20.3%market -7.9pp
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 13.1
0.7pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
74 IN
PIT vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
12.7%Valinor 19.9%market -8.0pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 12.7
0.6pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
75 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
9.6%Valinor 17.1%market -8.1pp
P 11.3
F 11.9
V 9.6
2.3pp 1.036xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
76 IN
CIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
14.5%Valinor 22.0%market -8.2pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 14.5
2.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
77 IN
SF vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
12.6%Valinor 20.3%market -8.5pp
P 12.4
F 11.9
V 12.6
0.7pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
9.2%Valinor 17.1%market -8.5pp
P 12.7
F 12.1
V 9.2
3.5pp 1.036xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
79 IN
ATL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
13.1%Valinor 21.2%market -8.9pp
P 13.3
F 12.1
V 13.1
1.1pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2475roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.