Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
60
Matched
243
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-28 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6
 12.6%Fangorn 9.1%market +3.4pp
P 12.1
F 12.6
V 9.4
3.1pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.0pp
P 9.5
F 11.9
V 9.6
2.4pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
03
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 11.7%Fangorn 9.8%market +1.9pp
P 10.1
F 11.7
V 8.8
3.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
04
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3
 12.1%Fangorn 11.7%market +0.4pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 10.1
2.1pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
05
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 12.6%Fangorn 12.8%market -0.3pp
P 11.3
F 12.6
V 11.9
1.2pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
06
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 11.6%market -0.3pp
P 13.4
F 11.3
V 10.7
2.7pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
07
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 7
 12.1%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.4pp
P 11.4
F 12.1
V 8.9
3.2pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
08
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 12.3%market -0.4pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 7.1
4.8pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
09
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
 11.7%Fangorn 12.2%market -0.5pp
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 11.1
1.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
10
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 12.4%market -0.6pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 13.9
2.4pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
11
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.8pp
P 10.9
F 11.7
V 10.2
1.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
12
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 13.3%market -0.8pp
P 12.7
F 12.6
V 10.3
2.4pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
13
Luis García Jr. WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.8pp
P 12.1
F 12.1
V 12.2
0.0pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
14
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.0pp
P 12.6
F 12.6
V 9.6
3.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
15
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.6pp
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 12.9
2.1pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
16
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 6
 12.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.7pp
P 12.5
F 12.4
V 9.7
2.8pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
17
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 11.3%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.7pp
P 11.4
F 11.3
V 10.6
0.8pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
18
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.0pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 13.0
1.4pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
19
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.2pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 13.8
1.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
20
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs SDCasey Mize · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 14.2%market -2.3pp
P 11.2
F 11.9
V 10.6
1.3pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
21
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 14.9%market -2.4pp
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 12.6
0.3pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
22
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
 11.3%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.5pp
P 10.3
F 11.3
V 12.1
1.8pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
23
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 15.6%market -3.1pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 14.5
2.0pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
24
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.2pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 13.7
1.1pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
25
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.4pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 13.0
0.8pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
26
Gunnar Henderson BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 17.4%market -5.5pp
P 12.4
F 11.9
V 16.1
4.2pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
27
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 6
 12.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.4pp
P 9.7
F 12.1
V 8.6
3.5pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
 11.3%Fangorn 8.7%market +2.6pp
P 8.3
F 11.3
V 8.3
3.0pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
29
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
 9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.1
F 9.9
V 10.5
4.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
30
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
 11.3%Fangorn 13.0%market -1.7pp
P 9.1
F 11.3
V 14.5
5.4pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
31
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 1
 9.3%Fangorn 11.0%market -1.7pp
P 9.5
F 9.3
V 12.0
2.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
32
Jahmai Jones DET
Lineup pending
DET vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 14.3%market -1.7pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 11.2
2.9pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
33
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 14.5%market -2.6pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 11.6
0.2pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
34
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.6pp
P 11.2
F 12.4
V 12.2
1.2pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
35
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.8pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 9.6
3.2pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
36
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
 11.9%Fangorn 15.9%market -4.0pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 8.9
3.6pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
37
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.0pp
P 9.7
F 11.7
V 12.7
3.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
38
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.4pp
P 12.3
F 12.6
V 12.5
0.3pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
39
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
 3.5%Fangorn 8.0%market -4.5pp
P 3.8
F 3.5
V 8.0
4.4pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
40
Austin Riley ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -5.1pp
P 11.1
F 11.9
V 14.6
3.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
41
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -5.1pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 12.3
0.5pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
42
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.1pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 15.3
2.7pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
43
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.6pp
P 12.5
F 12.1
V 14.4
2.3pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
44
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.6pp
P 13.0
F 12.1
V 12.5
0.8pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
45
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.6pp
P 12.6
F 12.4
V 11.7
0.8pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
46
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 17.5%market -5.7pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 14.1
2.5pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
47
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.8pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 16.5
4.6pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
48
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.9pp
P 12.2
F 12.1
V 17.4
5.3pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
49
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 18.7%market -6.1pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 15.1
2.6pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
50
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -6.2pp
P 12.3
F 11.9
V 12.2
0.5pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
51
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 19.4%market -7.0pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 16.4
3.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
52
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 19.4%market -7.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 13.4
1.3pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
53
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 20.4%market -8.3pp
P 12.7
F 12.1
V 11.3
1.4pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
54
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 21.1%market -8.6pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 14.0
2.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
55
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.3pp
P 13.6
F 12.4
V 14.4
2.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
56
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs SDCasey Mize · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 22.0%market -9.6pp
P 11.7
F 12.4
V 11.5
0.9pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
57
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 3
 11.9%Fangorn 22.5%market -10.6pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 14.5
2.7pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
58
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 23.8%market -11.7pp
P 14.0
F 12.1
V 16.7
4.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
59
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 23.3%market -11.9pp
P 10.8
F 11.3
V 11.1
0.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
60
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 26.3%market -15.0pp
P 12.2
F 11.3
V 13.0
1.6pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books

Data context

777 sample flags
Status2443roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.