Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-08-28 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Adley Rutschman
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5 |
13.9%Valinor | 11.9%market | +1.6pp |
P
11.5
F
11.9
V
13.9
|
2.4pp | 1.082xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 710 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Nathan Lukes
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6 |
9.4%Valinor | 9.2%market | -0.2pp |
P
12.1
F
12.6
V
9.4
|
3.1pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 940 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5 |
13.8%Valinor | 14.1%market | -0.3pp |
P
12.2
F
11.9
V
13.8
|
1.9pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 610 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5 |
12.9%Valinor | 13.0%market | -0.6pp |
P
10.9
F
11.9
V
12.9
|
2.1pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5 |
9.6%Valinor | 10.0%market | -0.8pp |
P
9.5
F
11.9
V
9.6
|
2.4pp | 0.987xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 865 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3 |
10.7%Valinor | 11.1%market | -0.8pp |
P
13.4
F
11.3
V
10.7
|
2.7pp | 0.987xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 765 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4 |
12.2%Valinor | 13.0%market | -0.8pp |
P
12.1
F
12.1
V
12.2
|
0.0pp | 0.987xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 670 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Jesús Sánchez
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5 |
11.9%Valinor | 12.3%market | -1.0pp |
P
11.3
F
12.6
V
11.9
|
1.2pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 680 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
Lineup pending
|
CIN vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2 |
11.1%Valinor | 11.7%market | -1.1pp |
P
10.4
F
11.7
V
11.1
|
1.3pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 720 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4 |
14.5%Valinor | 15.1%market | -1.1pp |
P
14.0
F
12.6
V
14.5
|
2.0pp | 1.082xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 540 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1 |
16.1%Valinor | 16.8%market | -1.3pp |
P
12.4
F
11.9
V
16.1
|
4.2pp | 1.082xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Willi Castro
COL
IN
|
COL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1 |
8.8%Valinor | 9.9%market | -1.6pp |
P
10.1
F
11.7
V
8.8
|
3.0pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 870 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1 |
13.0%Valinor | 14.1%market | -1.6pp |
P
14.0
F
12.6
V
13.0
|
1.4pp | 0.987xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 585 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5 |
12.1%Valinor | 13.3%market | -1.7pp |
P
10.3
F
11.3
V
12.1
|
1.8pp | 0.973xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 625 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1 |
13.7%Valinor | 15.2%market | -2.1pp |
P
13.6
F
12.6
V
13.7
|
1.1pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3 |
10.1%Valinor | 11.7%market | -2.1pp |
P
11.6
F
12.1
V
10.1
|
2.1pp | 0.973xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 720 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 5 |
10.2%Valinor | 12.0%market | -2.2pp |
P
10.9
F
11.7
V
10.2
|
1.5pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 700 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Yandy Díaz
TB
IN
|
TB vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2 |
12.6%Valinor | 14.4%market | -2.3pp |
P
12.9
F
12.6
V
12.6
|
0.3pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 570 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
IN
|
COL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4 |
10.6%Valinor | 13.1%market | -2.5pp |
P
11.4
F
11.3
V
10.6
|
0.8pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 665 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 4 |
13.0%Valinor | 15.0%market | -2.5pp |
P
12.3
F
12.1
V
13.0
|
0.8pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 21 | IN | TB vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3 |
10.3%Valinor | 13.3%market | -3.0pp |
P
12.7
F
12.6
V
10.3
|
2.4pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 22 | IN | TB vs SDCasey Mize · slot 5 |
10.6%Valinor | 13.6%market | -3.6pp |
P
11.2
F
11.9
V
10.6
|
1.3pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 7 |
8.9%Valinor | 12.5%market | -3.6pp |
P
11.4
F
12.1
V
8.9
|
3.2pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 700 avg 3 books |
| 24 | IN | CWS vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4 |
9.6%Valinor | 13.0%market | -3.9pp |
P
12.6
F
12.6
V
9.6
|
3.0pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 6 |
9.7%Valinor | 13.6%market | -4.4pp |
P
12.5
F
12.4
V
9.7
|
2.8pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 610 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1 |
7.1%Valinor | 11.8%market | -5.2pp |
P
11.9
F
11.9
V
7.1
|
4.8pp | 1.038xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 715 avg 3 books |
| 27 | IN | TB vs SDCasey Mize · slot 4 |
11.5%Valinor | 21.5%market | -10.7pp |
P
11.7
F
12.4
V
11.5
|
0.9pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 350 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Cal Raleigh
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3 |
13.0%Valinor | 25.8%market | -13.7pp |
P
12.2
F
11.3
V
13.0
|
1.6pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 275 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1 |
10.5%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.5pp |
P
6.1
F
9.9
V
10.5
|
4.4pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Lane Thomas
KC
Lineup pending
|
KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5 |
14.5%Valinor | 12.5%market | +1.6pp |
P
9.1
F
11.3
V
14.5
|
5.4pp | 0.968xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 1 |
12.0%Valinor | 10.5%market | +1.1pp |
P
9.5
F
9.3
V
12.0
|
2.7pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
José Tena
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 6 |
8.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +0.6pp |
P
9.7
F
12.1
V
8.6
|
3.5pp | 0.987xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 | IN | TB vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1 |
8.0%Valinor | 7.7%market | -0.0pp |
P
3.8
F
3.5
V
8.0
|
4.4pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 34 | IN | KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4 |
17.4%Valinor | 17.5%market | -0.8pp |
P
12.2
F
12.1
V
17.4
|
5.3pp | 0.968xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 450 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Steven Kwan
CLE
IN
|
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2 |
8.3%Valinor | 8.9%market | -0.9pp |
P
8.3
F
11.3
V
8.3
|
3.0pp | 0.968xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 985 avg 3 books |
| 36 | IN | KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1 |
16.5%Valinor | 17.1%market | -1.2pp |
P
12.6
F
11.9
V
16.5
|
4.6pp | 0.968xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Austin Riley
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4 |
14.6%Valinor | 16.4%market | -2.4pp |
P
11.1
F
11.9
V
14.6
|
3.5pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 38 | IN | KC vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3 |
15.3%Valinor | 17.1%market | -2.4pp |
P
13.8
F
12.6
V
15.3
|
2.7pp | 0.968xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5 |
11.6%Valinor | 14.0%market | -2.9pp |
P
11.9
F
11.9
V
11.6
|
0.2pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 590 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1 |
16.4%Valinor | 18.8%market | -3.0pp |
P
13.0
F
12.4
V
16.4
|
3.9pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 5 |
12.7%Valinor | 15.2%market | -3.1pp |
P
9.7
F
11.7
V
12.7
|
3.0pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Jahmai Jones
DET
Lineup pending
|
DET vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 2 |
11.2%Valinor | 13.8%market | -3.1pp |
P
14.1
F
12.6
V
11.2
|
2.9pp | 0.962xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 600 avg 3 books |
| 43 | IN | DET vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5 |
14.4%Valinor | 17.1%market | -3.3pp |
P
12.5
F
12.1
V
14.4
|
2.3pp | 0.962xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Daulton Varsho
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4 |
14.1%Valinor | 17.1%market | -3.6pp |
P
11.5
F
11.9
V
14.1
|
2.5pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4 |
15.1%Valinor | 18.2%market | -3.7pp |
P
14.6
F
12.6
V
15.1
|
2.6pp | 1.082xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3 |
12.2%Valinor | 15.6%market | -3.9pp |
P
11.2
F
12.4
V
12.2
|
1.2pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 520 avg 3 books |
| 47 | IN | TOR vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2 |
12.5%Valinor | 16.4%market | -4.5pp |
P
12.3
F
12.6
V
12.5
|
0.3pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4 |
12.3%Valinor | 16.4%market | -4.7pp |
P
11.8
F
11.9
V
12.3
|
0.5pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
George Springer
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1 |
12.5%Valinor | 17.1%market | -5.2pp |
P
13.0
F
12.1
V
12.5
|
0.8pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1 |
12.2%Valinor | 17.5%market | -6.0pp |
P
12.3
F
11.9
V
12.2
|
0.5pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 450 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2 |
13.4%Valinor | 18.9%market | -6.2pp |
P
13.1
F
12.1
V
13.4
|
1.3pp | 0.973xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
IN
|
COL vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2 |
11.7%Valinor | 17.4%market | -6.3pp |
P
12.6
F
12.4
V
11.7
|
0.8pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4 |
9.6%Valinor | 15.7%market | -6.7pp |
P
12.8
F
12.4
V
9.6
|
3.2pp | 1.038xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 54 | IN | BOS vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3 |
8.9%Valinor | 15.3%market | -7.0pp |
P
12.5
F
11.9
V
8.9
|
3.6pp | 1.038xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 3 |
14.0%Valinor | 20.5%market | -7.3pp |
P
12.0
F
12.4
V
14.0
|
2.0pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2 |
16.7%Valinor | 23.3%market | -7.4pp |
P
14.0
F
12.1
V
16.7
|
4.5pp | 1.082xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 315 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Matt Olson
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2 |
14.4%Valinor | 21.2%market | -7.6pp |
P
13.6
F
12.4
V
14.4
|
2.0pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 58 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 3 |
14.5%Valinor | 22.0%market | -8.2pp |
P
12.2
F
11.9
V
14.5
|
2.7pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 340 avg 3 books |
| 59 |
José Ramírez
CLE
IN
|
CLE vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1 |
11.3%Valinor | 19.9%market | -9.3pp |
P
12.7
F
12.1
V
11.3
|
1.4pp | 0.968xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 60 | IN | CWS vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3 |
11.1%Valinor | 22.7%market | -12.4pp |
P
10.8
F
11.3
V
11.1
|
0.5pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 325 avg 3 books |
Data context
777 sample flagsStatus2443roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.