Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-10-15 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
8
Matched
24
Lineups
36
HR BOARD 2026-10-15 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Home Runs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Fangorn calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.039, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.034, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane Health 2026-10-15
Palantir 22410 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising
Fangorn 22410 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising
Valinor 16722 props Brier 0.115 ECE 0.002 14d error rising

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 1
 11.9%Valinor 10.0%market +1.5pp
P 14.2
F 14.8
V 11.9
2.9pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
02
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 3
 13.8%Valinor 12.5%market +0.8pp
P 14.0
F 14.3
V 13.8
0.5pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
03
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 2
 14.9%Valinor 16.7%market -2.3pp
P 17.1
F 17.5
V 14.9
2.5pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
04
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 13.3%Valinor 21.5%market -8.9pp
P 13.5
F 14.3
V 13.3
1.0pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
05
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 10.3%Valinor 7.7%market +2.3pp
P 4.5
F 0.1
V 10.3
10.2pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
06
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 11.7%Valinor 13.3%market -1.7pp
P 14.5
F 15.1
V 11.7
3.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
07
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
 12.9%Valinor 14.4%market -2.1pp
P 14.7
F 15.1
V 12.9
2.2pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
08
Cedric Mullins TB
Lineup pending
TB vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
 12.0%Valinor 13.6%market -2.1pp
P 12.9
F 13.5
V 12.0
1.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status1518roster/transaction rows
Lineups36confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.