Mithrandir Metrics

PITCHER OUTS 2026-08-31 · saved artifact ROWS 9 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-08-31

Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

563 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Pitcher Outs board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	Outs proj	IP	BF	Recent K	Recent BB	Best line
01	Jackson JobeDET	DET vs MINneutral	P 51.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 14.5	48.4%Under prob · Palantir	39.9%no-vig	+1.35%	14.98count	4.99leash	21.246volume	0.1901traffic	0.1037traffic	FanDuel -180 avg 1 books
02	Kyle HarrisonMIL	MIL vs CHChitter-friendly	P 52.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 14.5	47.6%Under prob · Palantir	40.4%no-vig	+1.97%	15.28count	5.09leash	20.463volume	0.2773traffic	0.0709traffic	FanDuel -178 avg 1 books
03	Ryan GustoMIA	MIA vs WSHneutral	P 51.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 14.5	48.5%Under prob · Palantir	41.7%no-vig	+2.75%	15.13count	5.04leash	20.844volume	0.2084traffic	0.0563traffic	FanDuel -166 avg 1 books
04	Taj BradleyMIN	MIN vs DETneutral	P 49.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	50.9%Under prob · Palantir	44.5%no-vig	+23.10%	15.70count	5.23leash	23.298volume	0.2547traffic	0.1075traffic	FanDuel -146 avg 1 books
05	Michael KingSD	SD vs CINhitter-friendly	P 49.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	50.9%Under prob · Palantir	45.8%no-vig	+22.10%	15.92count	5.31leash	22.666volume	0.2284traffic	0.0893traffic	FanDuel -138 avg 1 books
06	Brady SingerCIN	CIN vs SDhitter-friendly	P 49.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	50.7%Under prob · Palantir	45.8%no-vig	+26.25%	15.89count	5.30leash	24.102volume	0.183traffic	0.0688traffic	FanDuel -138 avg 1 books
07	Bryce ElderATL	ATL vs SFneutral	P 49.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	50.2%Under prob · Palantir	46.8%no-vig	+3.11%	17.27count	5.76leash	24.289volume	0.2434traffic	0.0763traffic	FanDuel -132 avg 1 books
08	Clay HolmesCHC	CHC vs MILhitter-friendly	P 51.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	51.6%Over prob · Palantir	49.0%no-vig	+6.15%	16.26count	5.42leash	22.315volume	0.1777traffic	0.0819traffic	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
09	George KirbySEA	SEA vs BOShitter-friendly	P 49.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 17.5	49.5%Over prob · Palantir	47.0%no-vig	+0.46%	16.75count	5.58leash	23.406volume	0.2422traffic	0.0686traffic	FanDuel -102 avg 1 books