Mithrandir Metrics

PITCHER OUTS 2026-09-08 · saved artifact ROWS 13 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-09-11

Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

665 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Pitcher Outs board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	Outs proj	IP	BF	Recent K	Recent BB	Best line
01	Aj Smith-ShawverATL	ATL vs TBneutral	P 47.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 14.5	52.5%Under prob · Palantir	41.1%no-vig	+9.56%	14.25count	4.75leash	20.259volume	0.2084traffic	0.1284traffic	FanDuel -174 avg 1 books
02	Jacob MisiorowskiMIL	MIL vs CHCneutral	P 47.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.4%Under prob · Palantir	43.7%no-vig	+31.38%	15.24count	5.08leash	21.349volume	0.3255traffic	0.0845traffic	FanDuel -152 avg 1 books
03	Sandy AlcantaraMIA	MIA vs NYMneutral	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 18.5	47.4%Over prob · Palantir	38.8%no-vig	+1.96%	17.75count	5.92leash	25.587volume	0.1853traffic	0.0679traffic	FanDuel 142 avg 1 books
04	Cam SchlittlerNYY	NYY vs COLhitter-friendly	P 47.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 18.5	47.5%Over prob · Palantir	39.6%no-vig	+6.86%	16.71count	5.57leash	22.779volume	0.2939traffic	0.0789traffic	FanDuel 136 avg 1 books
05	Hayden WesneskiHOU	HOU vs PHIneutral	P 47.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	47.6%Over prob · Palantir	40.0%no-vig	+9.76%	15.77count	5.26leash	22.004volume	0.2288traffic	0.0899traffic	FanDuel 132 avg 1 books
06	Sean ManaeaNYM	NYM vs MIAneutral	P 48.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.0%Under prob · Palantir	45.8%no-vig	+35.31%	14.32count	4.77leash	22.348volume	0.2598traffic	0.056traffic	FanDuel -138 avg 1 books
07	Michael WachaKC	KC vs AZneutral	P 47.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.4%Under prob · Palantir	46.8%no-vig	+1.65%	17.66count	5.89leash	24.371volume	0.2179traffic	0.0458traffic	FanDuel -132 avg 1 books
08	Freddy PeraltaTB	TB vs ATLneutral	P 48.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	48.1%Over prob · Palantir	43.3%no-vig	+17.22%	16.49count	5.50leash	22.21volume	0.2777traffic	0.0636traffic	FanDuel 116 avg 1 books
09	David PetersonCHC	CHC vs MILneutral	P 47.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	47.6%Over prob · Palantir	43.3%no-vig	+6.48%	15.69count	5.23leash	23.969volume	0.2098traffic	0.1136traffic	FanDuel 116 avg 1 books
10	Tanner BibeeCLE	CLE vs BALneutral	P 47.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	52.5%Under prob · Palantir	48.8%no-vig	+1.32%	17.18count	5.73leash	24.359volume	0.2045traffic	0.0858traffic	FanDuel -122 avg 1 books
11	Sean BurkeCWS	CWS vs PITneutral	P 47.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 17.5	47.5%Over prob · Palantir	44.6%no-vig	+12.56%	14.92count	4.97leash	21.781volume	0.1908traffic	0.1136traffic	FanDuel 108 avg 1 books
12	Brandon YoungBAL	BAL vs CLEneutral	P 47.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 17.5	47.8%Over prob · Palantir	46.5%no-vig	+23.64%	14.81count	4.94leash	22.437volume	0.1697traffic	0.0846traffic	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
13	Dean KremerMIN	MIN vs DETneutral	P 48.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 15.5	52.0%Under prob · Palantir	51.6%no-vig	+10.04%	16.66count	5.55leash	22.196volume	0.2338traffic	0.0996traffic	FanDuel -106 avg 1 books