Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Strikeouts

Strikeouts · Palantir.

Starter strikeout probabilities, alt-ladder context, and lane health in one dense market view.

Rows
8
Date
2026-09-10
Lane
Palantir
STRIKEOUTS 2026-09-10 · saved artifact ROWS 8 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist
Model-market gaps are provisional This market's model lanes don't yet have enough graded results to validate the gaps. Treat them as early model signals, not established advantages.
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.112, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane Health 2026-09-10
Palantir 1715 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1211 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.024 14d error rising

Model Lane

Strikeouts

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Strikeouts board
#PlayerMatchupThree lanesLineModelMarketGap K proj5+6+7+Opp K%Recent K% Best line
01
Jacob deGromTEX
TEX vs SEApitcher-friendly
P 33.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 6.5
4 of 5 		66.7%Under prob · Palantir 47.1%no-vig +3.15% 5.57count61.8%ladder46.9%ladder33.3%ladder25.1%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -128 avg 1 books
02
Cristian JavierHOU
HOU vs PHIhitter-friendly
P 43.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 3.5
1 of 4 		56.5%Under prob · Palantir 42.0%no-vig +6.50% 3.41count26.7%ladder14.9%ladder7.6%ladder22.4%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -160 avg 1 books
03
Ryan FeltnerCOL
COL vs NYYhitter-friendly
P 33.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 4.5
2 of 4 		66.5%Under prob · Palantir 55.9%no-vig +0.93% 3.80count33.5%ladder20.2%ladder11.2%ladder22.8%lineup0.0%form FanDuel 114 avg 1 books
04
Logan GilbertSEA
SEA vs TEXpitcher-friendly
P 45.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 6.5
4 of 5 		54.7%Under prob · Palantir 48.1%no-vig +4.69% 6.45count72.3%ladder58.9%ladder45.3%ladder21.8%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -122 avg 1 books
05
Martín PérezATL
ATL vs TBneutral
P 46.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 3.5
46.2%Over prob · Palantir 39.8%no-vig +3.77% 3.55count29.1%ladder16.7%ladder8.8%ladder23.6%lineup0.0%form FanDuel 136 avg 1 books
06
Max FriedNYY
NYY vs COLhitter-friendly
P 53.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 5.5
3 of 5 		53.1%Over prob · Palantir 48.1%no-vig +10.63% 6.01count67.4%ladder53.1%ladder39.4%ladder26.1%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -104 avg 1 books
07
Zack WheelerPHI
PHI vs HOUhitter-friendly
P 51.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 6.5
4 of 5 		51.6%Over prob · Palantir 49.0%no-vig +1.65% 6.94count77.0%ladder64.7%ladder51.6%ladder20.3%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -108 avg 1 books
08
Nick MartinezTB
TB vs ATLneutral
P 48.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 3.5
1 of 3 		48.1%Over prob · Palantir 47.1%no-vig +1.86% 3.65count30.9%ladder18.1%ladder9.8%ladder22.4%lineup0.0%form FanDuel 100 avg 1 books