Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-05-04 · saved artifact ROWS 59 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 1.5 · 2.5 · 3.5

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

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Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Masyn WinnSTL	STL vs MILChad Patrick	P 39.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	60.6%Under prob · Palantir	39.1%no-vig	-0.64%	1.3847count	0.3943prob	0.8593proj	0.955context	FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
02	Josh LoweLAA	LAA vs CWSDavis Martin	P 23.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	76.4%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.57%	1.6172count	0.4691prob	0.888proj	0.923context	FanDuel 305 avg 1 books
03	Bo NaylorCLE	CLE vs KCMichael Wacha	P 23.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	76.2%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.40%	1.6216count	0.4711prob	0.8053proj	0.919context	FanDuel 490 avg 1 books
04	Will BensonCIN	CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera	P 54.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	45.6%Under prob · Palantir	37.7%no-vig	-0.36%	1.8902count	0.5442prob	0.9021proj	0.99context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
05	Matt McLainCIN	CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera	P 24.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.6%Under prob · Palantir	73.9%no-vig	+3.75%	1.6526count	0.47prob	0.9083proj	0.99context	FanDuel 295 avg 1 books
06	Steven KwanCLE	CLE vs KCMichael Wacha	P 23.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	76.2%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.32%	1.6502count	0.4541prob	1.1241proj	0.919context	FanDuel 700 avg 1 books
07	Brandon MarshPHI	PHI vs MIAJanson Junk	P 57.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	42.1%Under prob · Palantir	27.8%no-vig	-0.56%	2.1268count	0.5791prob	1.1619proj	1.058context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
08	Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY	NYY vs BALShane Baz	P 41.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	58.8%Under prob · Palantir	59.9%no-vig	-0.45%	2.5213count	0.6228prob	1.2349proj	1.084context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
09	Lane ThomasKC	KC vs CLETanner Bibee	P 24.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	75.9%Under prob · Palantir	74.2%no-vig	+4.08%	1.6315count	0.4609prob	0.8848proj	0.937context	FanDuel 550 avg 1 books
10	Junior CamineroTB	TB vs TOREric Lauer	P 65.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	35.0%Under prob · Palantir	26.3%no-vig	-0.41%	2.6138count	0.6502prob	1.2091proj	0.983context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
11	Mike TroutLAA	LAA vs CWSDavis Martin	P 31.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	68.9%Under prob · Palantir	69.3%no-vig	-0.66%	1.9906count	0.5365prob	0.9545proj	0.923context	FanDuel 215 avg 1 books
12	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR	TOR vs TBNick Martinez	P 45.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	54.8%Under prob · Palantir	56.2%no-vig	-0.25%	2.6732count	0.672prob	1.4405proj	1.019context	FanDuel 310 avg 1 books
13	Elly De La CruzCIN	CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera	P 66.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	33.5%Under prob · Palantir	23.7%no-vig	-0.35%	2.5731count	0.665prob	1.332proj	0.99context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
14	Francisco LindorNYM	NYM vs COLTomoyuki Sugano	P 46.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	53.7%Under prob · Palantir	54.9%no-vig	-0.21%	2.7915count	0.6741prob	1.3911proj	1.007context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
15	Kyle SchwarberPHI	PHI vs MIAJanson Junk	P 45.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	54.9%Under prob · Palantir	56.2%no-vig	-0.30%	2.8182count	0.6522prob	1.1526proj	1.058context	FanDuel 230 avg 1 books
16	Colton CowserBAL	BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler	P 44.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	55.3%Under prob · Palantir	42.5%no-vig	-0.73%	1.597count	0.4468prob	0.7944proj	1.023context	FanDuel 250 avg 1 books
17	Tj FriedlCIN	CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera	P 33.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	67.0%Under prob · Palantir	46.2%no-vig	-0.58%	2.0632count	0.5498prob	1.1932proj	0.99context	FanDuel 280 avg 1 books
18	Gunnar HendersonBAL	BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler	P 41.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	58.7%Under prob · Palantir	59.6%no-vig	-0.36%	2.501count	0.6343prob	1.3082proj	1.023context	FanDuel 320 avg 1 books
19	Spencer SteerCIN	CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera	P 54.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	45.2%Under prob · Palantir	31.9%no-vig	-0.64%	1.9882count	0.5479prob	1.0488proj	0.99context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
20	Andrew BenintendiCWS	CWS vs LAAJosé Soriano	P 25.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.4%Under prob · Palantir	72.9%no-vig	+2.52%	1.7072count	0.469prob	0.9799proj	0.903context	FanDuel 275 avg 1 books
21	Tyler StephensonCIN	CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera	P 27.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	72.6%Under prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	+0.78%	1.7986count	0.5046prob	0.957proj	0.99context	FanDuel 390 avg 1 books
22	Victor Scott IISTL	STL vs MILChad Patrick	P 39.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	60.5%Under prob · Palantir	39.1%no-vig	-0.78%	1.3815count	0.3945prob	0.8769proj	0.955context	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books
23	Francisco AlvarezNYM	NYM vs COLTomoyuki Sugano	P 26.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.0%Under prob · Palantir	72.7%no-vig	+2.16%	1.7233count	0.4819prob	0.8542proj	1.007context	FanDuel 270 avg 1 books
24	Adley RutschmanBAL	BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler	P 27.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	72.5%Under prob · Palantir	71.5%no-vig	+0.66%	1.7997count	0.4874prob	1.0486proj	1.023context	FanDuel 470 avg 1 books
25	Cody BellingerNYY	NYY vs BALShane Baz	P 69.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	30.9%Under prob · Palantir	19.6%no-vig	-0.36%	2.836count	0.6914prob	1.4909proj	1.084context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
26	Brett BatyNYM	NYM vs COLTomoyuki Sugano	P 26.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.6%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.77%	1.7436count	0.4701prob	0.9549proj	1.007context	FanDuel 265 avg 1 books
27	Bryson StottPHI	PHI vs MIAJanson Junk	P 28.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	71.9%Under prob · Palantir	71.2%no-vig	+0.08%	1.825count	0.5065prob	1.0933proj	1.058context	FanDuel 600 avg 1 books
28	Alec BohmPHI	PHI vs MIAJanson Junk	P 63.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	36.7%Under prob · Palantir	21.9%no-vig	-0.39%	2.3667count	0.6329prob	1.3671proj	1.058context	FanDuel 155 avg 1 books
29	Logan O'HoppeLAA	LAA vs CWSDavis Martin	P 26.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.4%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.61%	1.7463count	0.4736prob	0.9049proj	0.923context	FanDuel 265 avg 1 books
30	Aaron JudgeNYY	NYY vs BALShane Baz	P 75.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	24.1%Under prob · Palantir	20.0%no-vig	-0.39%	3.4812count	0.7587prob	1.4689proj	1.084context	FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
31	Jung Hoo LeeSF	SF vs SDRandy Vásquez	P 26.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.4%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.54%	1.7542count	0.5118prob	1.0504proj	0.979context	FanDuel 265 avg 1 books
32	Vinnie PasquantinoKC	KC vs CLETanner Bibee	P 62.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	37.4%Under prob · Palantir	26.0%no-vig	-0.42%	2.3894count	0.6265prob	1.2264proj	0.937context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
33	Yoán MoncadaLAA	LAA vs CWSDavis Martin	P 26.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.3%Under prob · Palantir	72.1%no-vig	+1.49%	1.7684count	0.5029prob	0.9255proj	0.923context	FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
34	Alec BurlesonSTL	STL vs MILChad Patrick	P 58.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	41.6%Under prob · Palantir	25.3%no-vig	-0.48%	2.1756count	0.584prob	1.2386proj	0.955context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
35	Jasson DomínguezNYY	NYY vs BALShane Baz	P 27.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.9%Under prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	+1.06%	1.7814count	0.491prob	0.9974proj	1.084context	FanDuel 255 avg 1 books
36	Trea TurnerPHI	PHI vs MIAJanson Junk	P 69.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	30.2%Under prob · Palantir	18.0%no-vig	-0.38%	2.789count	0.6975prob	1.5613proj	1.058context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
37	Tyler O'NeillBAL	BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler	P 27.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.2%Under prob · Palantir	71.5%no-vig	+0.34%	1.8117count	0.4939prob	0.8639proj	1.023context	FanDuel 250 avg 1 books
38	Jordan WalkerSTL	STL vs MILChad Patrick	P 39.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	60.8%Under prob · Palantir	41.7%no-vig	-0.66%	1.3626count	0.3917prob	0.7976proj	0.955context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
39	Jakob MarseeMIA	MIA vs PHIAaron Nola	P 59.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	41.0%Under prob · Palantir	27.9%no-vig	-0.41%	2.085count	0.5898prob	1.1581proj	0.919context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
40	Bobby Witt Jr.KC	KC vs CLETanner Bibee	P 66.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	33.9%Under prob · Palantir	22.4%no-vig	-0.31%	2.5452count	0.6606prob	1.3536proj	0.937context	FanDuel -135 avg 1 books
41	Bryce HarperPHI	PHI vs MIAJanson Junk	P 69.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	30.2%Under prob · Palantir	21.1%no-vig	-0.44%	2.8915count	0.6981prob	1.4261proj	1.058context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
42	Daulton VarshoTOR	TOR vs TBNick Martinez	P 61.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	38.5%Under prob · Palantir	32.1%no-vig	-0.40%	2.2698count	0.615prob	1.0441proj	1.019context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
43	Jj BledayCIN	CIN vs CHCEdward Cabrera	P 54.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	45.6%Under prob · Palantir	36.3%no-vig	-0.34%	1.8989count	0.5439prob	0.935proj	0.99context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
44	Salvador PerezKC	KC vs CLETanner Bibee	P 55.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	44.8%Under prob · Palantir	30.1%no-vig	-0.36%	2.0818count	0.5516prob	1.0964proj	0.937context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
45	Pete AlonsoBAL	BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler	P 59.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	40.1%Under prob · Palantir	30.1%no-vig	-0.37%	2.3747count	0.5989prob	1.1156proj	1.023context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
46	Xavier EdwardsMIA	MIA vs PHIAaron Nola	P 41.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	58.1%Under prob · Palantir	29.7%no-vig	-0.33%	1.468count	0.4189prob	1.1069proj	0.919context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
47	Paul GoldschmidtNYY	NYY vs BALShane Baz	P 53.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	46.6%Under prob · Palantir	30.5%no-vig	-0.58%	1.9247count	0.5342prob	1.0697proj	1.084context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
48	Maikel GarciaKC	KC vs CLETanner Bibee	P 44.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	55.9%Under prob · Palantir	35.7%no-vig	-0.34%	1.5061count	0.4409prob	0.934proj	0.937context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
49	Chandler SimpsonTB	TB vs TOREric Lauer	P 40.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	59.8%Under prob · Palantir	32.1%no-vig	-0.56%	1.3902count	0.4022prob	1.0196proj	0.983context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
50	Liam HicksMIA	MIA vs PHIAaron Nola	P 33.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	66.7%Under prob · Palantir	42.9%no-vig	-0.33%	1.2106count	0.333prob	0.779proj	0.919context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
51	Isaac CollinsKC	KC vs CLETanner Bibee	P 42.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	57.6%Under prob · Palantir	39.3%no-vig	-0.52%	1.4467count	0.4237prob	0.853proj	0.937context	FanDuel 185 avg 1 books
52	Leody TaverasBAL	BAL vs NYYCam Schlittler	P 40.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	59.4%Under prob · Palantir	39.3%no-vig	-0.54%	1.4277count	0.4057prob	0.8545proj	1.023context	FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
53	Otto LopezMIA	MIA vs PHIAaron Nola	P 39.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	60.1%Under prob · Palantir	37.9%no-vig	-0.27%	1.4037count	0.3987prob	0.8775proj	0.919context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
54	Daniel SchneemannCLE	CLE vs KCMichael Wacha	P 42.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	57.8%Under prob · Palantir	42.9%no-vig	-0.47%	1.4492count	0.422prob	0.7837proj	0.919context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
55	Trent GrishamNYY	NYY vs BALShane Baz	P 49.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	50.7%Under prob · Palantir	38.6%no-vig	-0.53%	1.8613count	0.4933prob	0.8772proj	1.084context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
56	Ben RiceNYY	NYY vs BALShane Baz	P 58.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	41.3%Under prob · Palantir	42.9%no-vig	-0.52%	2.2016count	0.5866prob	1.0241proj	1.084context	FanDuel -145 avg 1 books
57	Yainer DiazHOU	HOU vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto	P 51.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	48.1%Under prob · Palantir	49.4%no-vig	-0.53%	1.9048count	0.5185prob	1.0775proj	1.037context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
58	Jonathan ArandaTB	TB vs TOREric Lauer	P 39.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	60.2%Under prob · Palantir	42.9%no-vig	-0.69%	1.3306count	0.3976prob	0.7371proj	0.983context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
59	Anthony SantanderTOR	TOR vs TBNick Martinez	P 29.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	70.3%Under prob · Palantir	70.0%no-vig	-1.08%	0.9046count	0.2969prob	0.4174proj	1.019context	FanDuel 225 avg 1 books