Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-05-07 · saved artifact ROWS 42 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 1.5 · 2.5 · 3.5

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

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Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Brandon MarshPHI	PHI vs ATHJ.T. Ginn	P 57.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	42.5%Under prob · Palantir	27.8%no-vig	-0.56%	2.1268count	0.5753prob	1.1619proj	1.085context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
02	Keibert RuizWSH	WSH vs MINSimeon Woods Richardson	P 23.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	76.7%Under prob · Palantir	74.7%no-vig	+4.87%	1.6016count	0.4441prob	0.9802proj	0.943context	FanDuel 310 avg 1 books
03	Gunnar HendersonBAL	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	52.6%Under prob · Palantir	53.8%no-vig	-0.22%	2.8398count	0.6903prob	1.4328proj	1.009context	FanDuel 330 avg 1 books
04	Taylor WardBAL	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer	P 61.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	38.8%Under prob · Palantir	29.1%no-vig	-0.36%	2.3596count	0.6119prob	1.1318proj	1.009context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
05	Gabriel MorenoAZ	AZ vs PITMitch Keller	P 23.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	76.3%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.45%	1.6294count	0.4711prob	0.973proj	1.096context	FanDuel 305 avg 1 books
06	Connor NorbyMIA	MIA vs BALCade Povich	P 25.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	74.5%Under prob · Palantir	73.2%no-vig	+2.66%	1.7068count	0.483prob	0.9317proj	0.919context	FanDuel 500 avg 1 books
07	Tyler O'NeillBAL	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer	P 55.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	44.2%Under prob · Palantir	35.5%no-vig	-0.63%	2.0787count	0.5577prob	0.9531proj	1.009context	FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
08	Maikel GarciaKC	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 23.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	76.2%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.40%	1.6264count	0.4778prob	0.9865proj	0.937context	FanDuel 305 avg 1 books
09	Colton CowserBAL	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer	P 27.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	72.6%Under prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	+0.75%	1.7906count	0.4905prob	0.8624proj	1.009context	FanDuel 650 avg 1 books
10	Trea TurnerPHI	PHI vs ATHJ.T. Ginn	P 69.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	30.5%Under prob · Palantir	18.0%no-vig	-0.38%	2.789count	0.6946prob	1.5613proj	1.085context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
11	Jake MangumPIT	PIT vs AZZac Gallen	P 23.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	76.2%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.36%	1.645count	0.4701prob	1.1578proj	0.916context	FanDuel 305 avg 1 books
12	Bryson StottPHI	PHI vs ATHJ.T. Ginn	P 52.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	47.8%Under prob · Palantir	29.1%no-vig	-0.41%	1.8841count	0.5223prob	1.1189proj	1.085context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
13	Jake CronenworthSD	SD vs STLMatthew Liberatore	P 24.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.7%Under prob · Palantir	73.9%no-vig	+3.91%	1.6457count	0.4745prob	0.9269proj	1.004context	FanDuel 295 avg 1 books
14	Kyle SchwarberPHI	PHI vs ATHJ.T. Ginn	P 64.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	35.4%Under prob · Palantir	29.1%no-vig	-0.42%	2.8182count	0.6459prob	1.1526proj	1.085context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
15	Jonathan IndiaKC	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 24.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.5%Under prob · Palantir	73.9%no-vig	+3.65%	1.6545count	0.4709prob	0.9557proj	0.937context	FanDuel 295 avg 1 books
16	Bryce HarperPHI	PHI vs ATHJ.T. Ginn	P 69.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	30.5%Under prob · Palantir	21.1%no-vig	-0.44%	2.8915count	0.695prob	1.4261proj	1.085context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
17	Oneil CruzPIT	PIT vs AZZac Gallen	P 24.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.5%Under prob · Palantir	73.7%no-vig	+3.64%	1.6713count	0.491prob	0.8409proj	0.916context	FanDuel 290 avg 1 books
18	Otto LopezMIA	MIA vs BALCade Povich	P 44.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	55.2%Under prob · Palantir	34.4%no-vig	-0.54%	1.5754count	0.4478prob	0.9662proj	0.919context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
19	Bo NaylorCLE	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo	P 24.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.4%Under prob · Palantir	73.7%no-vig	+3.62%	1.6657count	0.4838prob	0.8208proj	0.919context	FanDuel 290 avg 1 books
20	Pete AlonsoBAL	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer	P 66.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	33.3%Under prob · Palantir	26.1%no-vig	-0.37%	2.7372count	0.6669prob	1.2348proj	1.009context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
21	Leody TaverasBAL	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer	P 24.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.3%Under prob · Palantir	73.7%no-vig	+3.52%	1.6655count	0.4738prob	0.9538proj	1.009context	FanDuel 290 avg 1 books
22	Jakob MarseeMIA	MIA vs BALCade Povich	P 53.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	46.1%Under prob · Palantir	31.6%no-vig	-0.47%	1.8593count	0.5392prob	1.0424proj	0.919context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
23	Steven KwanCLE	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo	P 24.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.1%Under prob · Palantir	73.5%no-vig	+3.26%	1.6957count	0.4673prob	1.1449proj	0.919context	FanDuel 285 avg 1 books
24	Jj BledayCIN	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga	P 43.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	56.1%Under prob · Palantir	57.1%no-vig	-0.59%	1.4286count	0.4385prob	0.7092proj	0.99context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
25	Geraldo PerdomoAZ	AZ vs PITMitch Keller	P 39.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	60.4%Under prob · Palantir	61.4%no-vig	-0.44%	2.3515count	0.6283prob	1.3738proj	1.096context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
26	Royce LewisMIN	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin	P 54.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	46.0%Under prob · Palantir	47.2%no-vig	-0.51%	1.9932count	0.5404prob	1.0197proj	0.995context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
27	Giancarlo StantonNYY	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore	P 42.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	57.8%Under prob · Palantir	58.8%no-vig	-0.38%	2.6177count	0.6401prob	1.1286proj	1.084context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
28	Kyle ManzardoCLE	CLE vs KCSeth Lugo	P 55.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	45.0%Under prob · Palantir	46.2%no-vig	-0.57%	2.0005count	0.5499prob	0.9675proj	0.919context	FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
29	Edmundo SosaPHI	PHI vs ATHJ.T. Ginn	P 13.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	86.3%Under prob · Palantir	64.9%no-vig	-0.85%	1.1354count	0.3551prob	0.604proj	1.085context	FanDuel 400 avg 1 books
30	Spencer HorwitzPIT	PIT vs AZZac Gallen	P 25.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.2%Under prob · Palantir	72.9%no-vig	+2.40%	1.7179count	0.484prob	0.9682proj	0.916context	FanDuel 275 avg 1 books
31	José CaballeroNYY	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore	P 26.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.8%Under prob · Palantir	72.7%no-vig	+1.92%	1.7338count	0.4876prob	1.0413proj	1.084context	FanDuel 270 avg 1 books
32	Victor CaratiniMIN	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin	P 26.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.5%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.65%	1.7564count	0.4832prob	1.0101proj	0.995context	FanDuel 265 avg 1 books
33	Matt McLainCIN	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga	P 26.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.4%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.57%	1.7591count	0.4949prob	0.9582proj	0.99context	FanDuel 265 avg 1 books
34	Lane ThomasKC	KC vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 26.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.4%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.53%	1.7631count	0.4982prob	0.9349proj	0.937context	FanDuel 265 avg 1 books
35	Jasson DomínguezNYY	NYY vs TEXMacKenzie Gore	P 27.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.9%Under prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	+1.06%	1.7814count	0.4929prob	0.9974proj	1.084context	FanDuel 255 avg 1 books
36	Ryan JeffersMIN	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin	P 27.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.9%Under prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	+1.06%	1.7911count	0.5119prob	0.9504proj	0.995context	FanDuel 255 avg 1 books
37	Ryan MountcastleBAL	BAL vs MIAMax Meyer	P 28.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 2.5	28.4%Over prob · Palantir	29.0%no-vig	-0.20%	1.8434count	0.5189prob	1.0424proj	1.009context	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books
38	Tj FriedlCIN	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga	P 28.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 2.5	28.4%Over prob · Palantir	29.0%no-vig	-0.22%	1.8409count	0.5018prob	1.0696proj	0.99context	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books
39	Iván HerreraSTL	STL vs SDMichael King	P 27.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.8%Under prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	+0.93%	1.7897count	0.4877prob	1.0545proj	0.949context	FanDuel 255 avg 1 books
40	Luke KeaschallMIN	MIN vs WSHJake Irvin	P 28.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 2.5	28.5%Over prob · Palantir	29.0%no-vig	-0.36%	1.8476count	0.5071prob	1.1199proj	0.995context	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books
41	Noelvi MarteCIN	CIN vs CHCShota Imanaga	P 27.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.3%Under prob · Palantir	71.5%no-vig	+0.48%	1.8122count	0.5077prob	1.0026proj	0.99context	FanDuel 250 avg 1 books
42	Heriberto HernándezMIA	MIA vs BALCade Povich	P 27.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.3%Under prob · Palantir	71.5%no-vig	+0.43%	1.8153count	0.51prob	0.9899proj	0.919context	FanDuel 250 avg 1 books