Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-05-14 · saved artifact ROWS 47 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 1.5 · 2.5 · 3.5

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

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Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Freddie FreemanLAD	LAD vs SFLanden Roupp	P 74.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	25.2%Under prob · Palantir	17.2%no-vig	-0.30%	3.1591count	0.7482prob	1.6594proj	1.098context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
02	Alec BurlesonSTL	STL vs ATHJacob Lopez	P 23.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	76.6%Under prob · Palantir	74.7%no-vig	+4.76%	1.6104count	0.4563prob	0.929proj	0.968context	FanDuel 310 avg 1 books
03	Jung Hoo LeeSF	SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan	P 25.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	75.0%Under prob · Palantir	73.5%no-vig	+3.16%	1.6795count	0.4904prob	1.018proj	0.958context	FanDuel 600 avg 1 books
04	Trea TurnerPHI	PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez	P 71.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	28.7%Under prob · Palantir	17.2%no-vig	-0.31%	2.9119count	0.7134prob	1.6301proj	1.107context	FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
05	Joey LoperfidoHOU	HOU vs SEALuis Castillo	P 23.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	76.4%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.58%	1.6124count	0.4528prob	0.9307proj	1.037context	FanDuel 305 avg 1 books
06	Kyle TuckerLAD	LAD vs SFLanden Roupp	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	52.6%Under prob · Palantir	53.8%no-vig	-0.21%	2.8625count	0.6907prob	1.4049proj	1.098context	FanDuel 420 avg 1 books
07	Will SmithLAD	LAD vs SFLanden Roupp	P 55.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	44.8%Under prob · Palantir	31.5%no-vig	-0.45%	2.0134count	0.552prob	1.0539proj	1.098context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
08	Jake CronenworthSD	SD vs MILKyle Harrison	P 24.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.9%Under prob · Palantir	74.2%no-vig	+4.04%	1.6389count	0.4725prob	0.9241proj	1.003context	FanDuel 300 avg 1 books
09	Caleb DurbinBOS	BOS vs PHIJesús Luzardo	P 26.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5	73.2%Under prob · Palantir	72.1%no-vig	+1.33%	1.768count	0.4981prob	1.0224proj	1.089context	FanDuel 900 avg 1 books
10	Matt ChapmanSF	SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan	P 58.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	42.0%Under prob · Palantir	31.9%no-vig	-0.59%	2.1101count	0.58prob	1.0514proj	0.958context	FanDuel 230 avg 1 books
11	Jake BauersMIL	MIL vs SDGriffin Canning	P 24.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.7%Under prob · Palantir	73.9%no-vig	+3.86%	1.6294count	0.4547prob	0.8093proj	1.057context	FanDuel 295 avg 1 books
12	Bryson StottPHI	PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez	P 37.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	62.2%Under prob · Palantir	40.9%no-vig	-0.34%	1.3281count	0.3776prob	0.8113proj	1.107context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
13	Jake MangumPIT	PIT vs COLChase Dollander	P 24.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.7%Under prob · Palantir	73.9%no-vig	+3.85%	1.6657count	0.4763prob	1.1679proj	0.926context	FanDuel 295 avg 1 books
14	Bryce HarperPHI	PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez	P 68.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	31.2%Under prob · Palantir	22.6%no-vig	-0.38%	2.7723count	0.6884prob	1.3673proj	1.107context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
15	Brenton DoyleCOL	COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski	P 24.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.1%Under prob · Palantir	73.5%no-vig	+3.27%	1.6719count	0.4709prob	0.9281proj	0.926context	FanDuel 285 avg 1 books
16	Mookie BettsLAD	LAD vs SFLanden Roupp	P 66.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	33.5%Under prob · Palantir	21.9%no-vig	-0.35%	2.6548count	0.6653prob	1.3909proj	1.098context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
17	Oneil CruzPIT	PIT vs COLChase Dollander	P 25.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	75.0%Under prob · Palantir	73.5%no-vig	+3.16%	1.6976count	0.4986prob	0.8505proj	0.926context	FanDuel 285 avg 1 books
18	Rafael DeversSF	SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan	P 66.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	33.1%Under prob · Palantir	25.3%no-vig	-0.43%	2.6519count	0.6691prob	1.2649proj	0.958context	FanDuel 155 avg 1 books
19	Heliot RamosSF	SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan	P 29.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	70.5%Under prob · Palantir	49.4%no-vig	-0.50%	1.8984count	0.5188prob	1.0564proj	0.958context	FanDuel 320 avg 1 books
20	Andy PagesLAD	LAD vs SFLanden Roupp	P 56.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	43.6%Under prob · Palantir	28.6%no-vig	-0.54%	2.1007count	0.5643prob	1.136proj	1.098context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
21	Matt ShawCHC	CHC vs ATLChris Sale	P 25.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.9%Under prob · Palantir	73.5%no-vig	+3.08%	1.6901count	0.4875prob	0.8934proj	1.07context	FanDuel 285 avg 1 books
22	Willson ContrerasBOS	BOS vs PHIJesús Luzardo	P 63.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	36.7%Under prob · Palantir	25.3%no-vig	-0.48%	2.4721count	0.6327prob	1.2627proj	1.089context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
23	Francisco AlvarezNYM	NYM vs DETKeider Montero	P 25.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.1%Under prob · Palantir	72.9%no-vig	+2.28%	1.7233count	0.4879prob	0.8542proj	1.037context	FanDuel 275 avg 1 books
24	Kyle SchwarberPHI	PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez	P 65.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	34.6%Under prob · Palantir	30.5%no-vig	-0.38%	2.7065count	0.6536prob	1.1069proj	1.107context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
25	Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC	CHC vs ATLChris Sale	P 25.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.1%Under prob · Palantir	72.9%no-vig	+2.27%	1.7444count	0.5113prob	0.8672proj	1.07context	FanDuel 275 avg 1 books
26	J.t. RealmutoPHI	PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez	P 56.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	43.9%Under prob · Palantir	28.2%no-vig	-0.50%	2.0699count	0.5612prob	1.1453proj	1.107context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
27	Masataka YoshidaBOS	BOS vs PHIJesús Luzardo	P 26.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	74.0%Under prob · Palantir	72.7%no-vig	+2.12%	1.7363count	0.5025prob	1.017proj	1.089context	FanDuel 270 avg 1 books
28	Brandon MarshPHI	PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez	P 37.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	62.1%Under prob · Palantir	46.8%no-vig	-0.76%	1.2298count	0.3792prob	0.6719proj	1.107context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
29	Spencer HorwitzPIT	PIT vs COLChase Dollander	P 26.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.9%Under prob · Palantir	72.7%no-vig	+2.09%	1.7331count	0.4883prob	0.9743proj	0.926context	FanDuel 270 avg 1 books
30	Tyler SoderstromATH	ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 55.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	44.1%Under prob · Palantir	45.7%no-vig	-0.58%	2.0376count	0.5594prob	1.061proj	0.937context	FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
31	Willi CastroCOL	COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski	P 26.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.8%Under prob · Palantir	72.7%no-vig	+1.97%	1.7334count	0.4926prob	1.0036proj	0.926context	FanDuel 270 avg 1 books
32	Alec BohmPHI	PHI vs BOSRanger Suarez	P 64.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	35.4%Under prob · Palantir	20.7%no-vig	-0.42%	2.4649count	0.6459prob	1.4238proj	1.107context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
33	Brett BatyNYM	NYM vs DETKeider Montero	P 26.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.6%Under prob · Palantir	72.4%no-vig	+1.78%	1.7436count	0.474prob	0.9549proj	1.037context	FanDuel 265 avg 1 books
34	Jarren DuranBOS	BOS vs PHIJesús Luzardo	P 68.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	31.3%Under prob · Palantir	22.9%no-vig	-0.48%	2.5526count	0.6868prob	1.3366proj	1.089context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
35	Ramón UríasSTL	STL vs ATHJacob Lopez	P 26.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.2%Under prob · Palantir	72.1%no-vig	+1.41%	1.7632count	0.4954prob	1.0136proj	0.968context	FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
36	Luis ArraezSF	SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan	P 54.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	45.9%Under prob · Palantir	21.9%no-vig	-0.36%	1.9233count	0.5415prob	1.385proj	0.958context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
37	Luis RengifoMIL	MIL vs SDGriffin Canning	P 26.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.2%Under prob · Palantir	72.1%no-vig	+1.37%	1.7683count	0.4931prob	1.059proj	1.057context	FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
38	Willy AdamesSF	SF vs LADEmmet Sheehan	P 56.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	43.3%Under prob · Palantir	32.6%no-vig	-0.59%	2.0984count	0.5667prob	1.0287proj	0.958context	FanDuel 185 avg 1 books
39	Austin HaysCWS	CWS vs KCKris Bubic	P 27.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	73.0%Under prob · Palantir	72.1%no-vig	+1.18%	1.774count	0.4986prob	1.0093proj	0.921context	FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
40	Alex CallLAD	LAD vs SFLanden Roupp	P 35.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	64.3%Under prob · Palantir	45.7%no-vig	-0.90%	1.1901count	0.3573prob	0.7045proj	1.098context	FanDuel 210 avg 1 books
41	Ezequiel TovarCOL	COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski	P 28.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 2.5	28.7%Over prob · Palantir	29.4%no-vig	-0.58%	1.8571count	0.5176prob	1.0468proj	0.926context	FanDuel 235 avg 1 books
42	Sal FrelickMIL	MIL vs SDGriffin Canning	P 44.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	55.2%Under prob · Palantir	56.2%no-vig	-0.61%	1.5817count	0.4484prob	1.0388proj	1.057context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
43	Carson KellyCHC	CHC vs ATLChris Sale	P 27.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	72.9%Under prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	+1.07%	1.7797count	0.4903prob	0.9734proj	1.07context	FanDuel 255 avg 1 books
44	Jordan BeckCOL	COL vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski	P 40.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	59.1%Under prob · Palantir	59.9%no-vig	-0.80%	1.4184count	0.4087prob	0.8248proj	0.926context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
45	Colson MontgomeryCWS	CWS vs KCKris Bubic	P 28.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 2.5	28.7%Over prob · Palantir	29.0%no-vig	-0.52%	1.8639count	0.5134prob	0.8493proj	0.921context	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books
46	Jacob WilsonATH	ATH vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 43.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	56.1%Under prob · Palantir	57.1%no-vig	-0.56%	1.5794count	0.4388prob	1.0318proj	0.937context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
47	Luke RaleySEA	SEA vs HOUMike Burrows	P 28.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5	71.9%Under prob · Palantir	71.2%no-vig	+0.09%	1.8397count	0.5148prob	0.9004proj	1.028context	FanDuel 245 avg 1 books