Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-06-08 · saved artifact ROWS 35 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 1.5 · 2.5

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

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Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Trea TurnerPHI	PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin	P 70.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	70.7%Over prob · Palantir	82.8%no-vig	-0.31%	2.9119count	0.7068prob	1.6301proj	1.082context	FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
02	Anthony SantanderTOR	TOR vs PHICristopher Sánchez	P 28.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 1.5	71.1%Under prob · Palantir	69.7%no-vig	-1.37%	0.8825count	0.2893prob	0.4108proj	1.028context	BetMGM 230 avg 1 books
03	Zack GelofATH	ATH vs MILKyle Harrison	P 23.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	76.2%Under prob · Palantir	74.2%no-vig	+4.33%	1.6272count	0.4718prob	0.8374proj	0.937context	DraftKings 300 avg 1 books
04	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR	TOR vs PHICristopher Sánchez	P 67.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	67.0%Over prob · Palantir	79.8%no-vig	-0.39%	2.6911count	0.6704prob	1.4639proj	1.028context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
05	Cody BellingerNYY	NYY vs CLEGavin Williams	P 69.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.2%Over prob · Palantir	80.4%no-vig	-0.36%	2.836count	0.6921prob	1.4909proj	1.1context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
06	Gunnar HendersonBAL	BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock	P 69.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.2%Over prob · Palantir	78.9%no-vig	-0.40%	2.8398count	0.6923prob	1.4328proj	1.041context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
07	Bryce HarperPHI	PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin	P 67.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	67.9%Over prob · Palantir	77.4%no-vig	-0.38%	2.7723count	0.6791prob	1.3673proj	1.082context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
08	Alec BohmPHI	PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin	P 64.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	64.1%Over prob · Palantir	79.3%no-vig	-0.42%	2.4649count	0.6412prob	1.4238proj	1.082context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
09	George SpringerTOR	TOR vs PHICristopher Sánchez	P 61.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	61.8%Over prob · Palantir	75.4%no-vig	-0.43%	2.4482count	0.6177prob	1.2982proj	1.028context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
10	Steven KwanCLE	CLE vs NYYWill Warren	P 48.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.7%Over prob · Palantir	72.1%no-vig	-0.41%	1.7663count	0.4873prob	1.1772proj	0.942context	FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
11	Rafael DeversSF	SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas	P 65.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	65.8%Over prob · Palantir	75.0%no-vig	-0.92%	2.6598count	0.6575prob	1.2677proj	0.979context	FanDuel -200 avg 1 books
12	Adley RutschmanBAL	BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock	P 55.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	55.7%Over prob · Palantir	72.1%no-vig	-0.42%	2.0763count	0.5574prob	1.1614proj	1.041context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
13	Taylor WardBAL	BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock	P 61.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	61.3%Over prob · Palantir	70.9%no-vig	-0.36%	2.3596count	0.6131prob	1.1318proj	1.041context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
14	J.t. RealmutoPHI	PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin	P 55.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	55.4%Over prob · Palantir	71.8%no-vig	-0.50%	2.0699count	0.5538prob	1.1453proj	1.082context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
15	Pete AlonsoBAL	BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock	P 44.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	44.3%Over prob · Palantir	74.0%no-vig	-1.14%	2.7372count	0.6647prob	1.2348proj	1.041context	FanDuel 300 avg 1 books
16	Kyle SchwarberPHI	PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin	P 63.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	63.8%Over prob · Palantir	69.5%no-vig	-0.38%	2.7065count	0.6382prob	1.1069proj	1.082context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
17	Xander BogaertsSD	SD vs CINAndrew Abbott	P 53.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	53.4%Over prob · Palantir	71.7%no-vig	-1.13%	1.917count	0.5342prob	1.1336proj	1.004context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
18	Brice TurangMIL	MIL vs ATHJeffrey Springs	P 52.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	52.2%Over prob · Palantir	72.5%no-vig	-1.24%	1.887count	0.5225prob	1.1649proj	1.08context	FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
19	Josh LoweLAA	LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti	P 23.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.8%Over prob · Palantir	62.3%no-vig	+4.35%	1.6285count	0.4724prob	0.8924proj	0.923context	DraftKings 300 avg 1 books
20	Paul GoldschmidtNYY	NYY vs CLEGavin Williams	P 30.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	30.1%Over prob · Palantir	69.5%no-vig	-1.01%	1.9247count	0.5354prob	1.0697proj	1.1context	FanDuel 390 avg 1 books
21	Alejandro KirkTOR	TOR vs PHICristopher Sánchez	P 24.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.1%Over prob · Palantir	66.9%no-vig	+4.11%	1.6407count	0.4619prob	1.0021proj	1.028context	DraftKings 300 avg 1 books
22	Tyler FitzgeraldSF	SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas	P 23.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.3%Over prob · Palantir	61.7%no-vig	+4.89%	1.6074count	0.4735prob	0.8621proj	0.979context	DraftKings 310 avg 1 books
23	Ben RiceNYY	NYY vs CLEGavin Williams	P 58.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	58.8%Over prob · Palantir	67.4%no-vig	-0.66%	2.2016count	0.5877prob	1.0241proj	1.1context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
24	Kyle ManzardoCLE	CLE vs NYYWill Warren	P 57.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.9%Over prob · Palantir	66.9%no-vig	-0.73%	2.1223count	0.5788prob	1.0098proj	0.942context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
25	Leody TaverasBAL	BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock	P 24.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.6%Over prob · Palantir	65.1%no-vig	+3.54%	1.6655count	0.4779prob	0.9538proj	1.041context	FanDuel 600 avg 1 books
26	Colton CowserBAL	BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock	P 49.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	49.5%Over prob · Palantir	60.7%no-vig	-0.24%	1.7906count	0.4953prob	0.8624proj	1.041context	FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
27	Jorge SolerLAA	LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti	P 53.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	53.5%Over prob · Palantir	64.3%no-vig	-1.08%	1.9371count	0.5347prob	0.9494proj	0.923context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
28	Bryson StottPHI	PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin	P 42.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	42.2%Over prob · Palantir	62.3%no-vig	-0.64%	1.4631count	0.4216prob	0.8705proj	1.082context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
29	Yoán MoncadaLAA	LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti	P 50.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	50.0%Over prob · Palantir	63.7%no-vig	-1.26%	1.7565count	0.4996prob	0.9211proj	0.923context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
30	Jj BledayCIN	CIN vs SDWalker Buehler	P 54.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	54.7%Over prob · Palantir	64.3%no-vig	-0.86%	1.9203count	0.547prob	0.9427proj	0.996context	FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
31	Daniel SchneemannCLE	CLE vs NYYWill Warren	P 45.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	45.5%Over prob · Palantir	59.1%no-vig	-0.67%	1.5584count	0.4552prob	0.8255proj	0.942context	FanDuel 210 avg 1 books
32	Matt McLainCIN	CIN vs SDWalker Buehler	P 24.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.7%Over prob · Palantir	63.7%no-vig	+3.43%	1.669count	0.4747prob	0.9148proj	0.996context	DraftKings 290 avg 1 books
33	Noelvi MarteCIN	CIN vs SDWalker Buehler	P 45.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	45.0%Over prob · Palantir	63.0%no-vig	-1.47%	1.5718count	0.4504prob	0.8819proj	0.996context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
34	Trent GrishamNYY	NYY vs CLEGavin Williams	P 28.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	28.9%Over prob · Palantir	61.4%no-vig	-1.57%	1.8613count	0.4965prob	0.8772proj	1.1context	FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
35	Brandon MarshPHI	PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin	P 37.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	37.3%Over prob · Palantir	53.2%no-vig	-0.62%	1.2355count	0.3727prob	0.675proj	1.082context	FanDuel 195 avg 1 books