Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-06-16 · saved artifact ROWS 63 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 2.5

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

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Model Lane

Total Bases

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Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Cody BellingerNYY	NYY vs CWSDavis Martin	P 68.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	68.9%Over prob · Palantir	80.4%no-vig	-0.36%	2.836count	0.6888prob	1.4909proj	1.084context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
02	Josh SmithTEX	TEX vs MINZebby Matthews	P 23.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	76.7%Under prob · Palantir	74.7%no-vig	+4.89%	1.6011count	0.4618prob	0.9338proj	1.015context	DraftKings 310 avg 1 books
03	Bo BichetteNYM	NYM vs CINBrady Singer	P 65.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	65.0%Over prob · Palantir	79.5%no-vig	-0.38%	2.4581count	0.6504prob	1.4245proj	1.043context	FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
04	Brenton DoyleCOL	COL vs CHCEdward Cabrera	P 23.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	76.4%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.60%	1.605count	0.4516prob	0.902proj	0.907context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
05	Brice TurangMIL	MIL vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 60.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	60.9%Over prob · Palantir	78.1%no-vig	-0.34%	2.299count	0.6088prob	1.4038proj	1.057context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
06	Josh LoweLAA	LAA vs AZMerrill Kelly	P 23.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	76.1%Under prob · Palantir	74.2%no-vig	+4.28%	1.6319count	0.4734prob	0.8937proj	0.936context	DraftKings 300 avg 1 books
07	Christian YelichMIL	MIL vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 64.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	64.5%Over prob · Palantir	78.4%no-vig	-0.42%	2.6265count	0.6445prob	1.4088proj	1.057context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
08	Carson KellyCHC	CHC vs COLRyan Feltner	P 23.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	76.3%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.43%	1.6171count	0.4567prob	0.8824proj	1.057context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
09	Juan SotoNYM	NYM vs CINBrady Singer	P 68.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	68.6%Over prob · Palantir	76.6%no-vig	-0.47%	2.9317count	0.6863prob	1.3461proj	1.043context	FanDuel -135 avg 1 books
10	Jake BauersMIL	MIL vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 24.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	75.3%Under prob · Palantir	73.7%no-vig	+3.50%	1.6444count	0.4545prob	0.8168proj	1.057context	FanDuel 420 avg 1 books
11	Julio RodríguezSEA	SEA vs BALBrandon Young	P 44.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	44.5%Over prob · Palantir	78.6%no-vig	-0.98%	2.6558count	0.6591prob	1.4048proj	1.012context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
12	Luis ArraezSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 54.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	54.4%Over prob · Palantir	78.1%no-vig	-0.44%	1.931count	0.5435prob	1.3888proj	0.958context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
13	Matt OlsonATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 69.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.2%Over prob · Palantir	77.6%no-vig	-0.43%	2.9066count	0.692prob	1.3811proj	1.06context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
14	Manny MachadoSD	SD vs STLAndre Pallante	P 64.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	64.3%Over prob · Palantir	77.1%no-vig	-0.39%	2.5581count	0.6434prob	1.3441proj	1.01context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
15	Austin RileyATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 64.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	64.7%Over prob · Palantir	76.0%no-vig	-0.48%	2.534count	0.6474prob	1.2928proj	1.06context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
16	Jackson MerrillSD	SD vs STLAndre Pallante	P 68.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	68.3%Over prob · Palantir	78.6%no-vig	-0.35%	2.6752count	0.6826prob	1.3932proj	1.01context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
17	William ContrerasMIL	MIL vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 62.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	62.7%Over prob · Palantir	76.8%no-vig	-0.48%	2.3992count	0.6274prob	1.3372proj	1.057context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
18	Fernando Tatis Jr.SD	SD vs STLAndre Pallante	P 64.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	64.5%Over prob · Palantir	76.2%no-vig	-0.32%	2.5208count	0.645prob	1.315proj	1.01context	FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
19	Drake BaldwinATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 61.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	61.0%Over prob · Palantir	74.7%no-vig	-0.46%	2.3723count	0.6103prob	1.2393proj	1.06context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
20	Ozzie AlbiesATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 61.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	61.8%Over prob · Palantir	75.7%no-vig	-0.46%	2.3741count	0.6177prob	1.2921proj	1.06context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
21	Michael Harris IIATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 57.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.2%Over prob · Palantir	72.6%no-vig	-0.47%	2.137count	0.5724prob	1.1715proj	1.06context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
22	James WoodWSH	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha	P 61.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	61.6%Over prob · Palantir	72.6%no-vig	-0.50%	2.335count	0.6159prob	1.1885proj	0.943context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
23	Nick KurtzATH	ATH vs PITMitch Keller	P 47.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	47.2%Over prob · Palantir	75.9%no-vig	-0.46%	2.9269count	0.714prob	1.2904proj	0.937context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
24	Daylen LileWSH	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha	P 60.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	60.4%Over prob · Palantir	73.7%no-vig	-0.57%	2.1656count	0.6035prob	1.2037proj	0.943context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
25	Rafael DeversSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 66.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	66.9%Over prob · Palantir	75.0%no-vig	-0.34%	2.6598count	0.6694prob	1.2677proj	0.958context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
26	Alec BurlesonSTL	STL vs SDMichael King	P 57.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.4%Over prob · Palantir	74.3%no-vig	-0.51%	2.1344count	0.5741prob	1.2226proj	0.955context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
27	Xander BogaertsSD	SD vs STLAndre Pallante	P 49.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	49.2%Over prob · Palantir	68.5%no-vig	-0.48%	1.7492count	0.4924prob	1.0491proj	1.01context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
28	Marcus SemienNYM	NYM vs CINBrady Singer	P 57.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.4%Over prob · Palantir	71.7%no-vig	-0.30%	2.1289count	0.5736prob	1.1508proj	1.043context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
29	Willy AdamesSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 56.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	56.1%Over prob · Palantir	66.9%no-vig	-0.46%	2.0764count	0.5614prob	1.021proj	0.958context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
30	Miguel AndujarSD	SD vs STLAndre Pallante	P 23.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.7%Over prob · Palantir	68.1%no-vig	+4.46%	1.6326count	0.4627prob	1.0167proj	1.01context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
31	Sal FrelickMIL	MIL vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 23.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.3%Over prob · Palantir	68.5%no-vig	+4.91%	1.6089count	0.4566prob	1.0515proj	1.057context	FanDuel 700 avg 1 books
32	Keibert RuizWSH	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha	P 23.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.6%Over prob · Palantir	65.6%no-vig	+4.57%	1.6157count	0.4482prob	0.9862proj	0.943context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
33	Jorge PolancoNYM	NYM vs CINBrady Singer	P 60.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	60.0%Over prob · Palantir	72.5%no-vig	-0.74%	2.3315count	0.6004prob	1.1693proj	1.043context	FanDuel -155 avg 1 books
34	Mike YastrzemskiATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 56.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	56.6%Over prob · Palantir	67.4%no-vig	-0.49%	2.0802count	0.5661prob	1.0306proj	1.06context	FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
35	Jung Hoo LeeSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 49.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	49.9%Over prob · Palantir	67.9%no-vig	-0.43%	1.7093count	0.499prob	1.0309proj	0.958context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
36	Xavier EdwardsMIA	MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo	P 41.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	41.1%Over prob · Palantir	69.9%no-vig	-0.49%	1.444count	0.4111prob	1.0929proj	0.943context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
37	Paul GoldschmidtNYY	NYY vs CWSDavis Martin	P 53.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	53.2%Over prob · Palantir	69.5%no-vig	-0.58%	1.9247count	0.5324prob	1.0697proj	1.084context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
38	Spencer SteerCIN	CIN vs NYMKodai Senga	P 54.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	54.3%Over prob · Palantir	67.9%no-vig	-0.54%	1.9671count	0.5426prob	1.0409proj	1.009context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
39	Tyler StephensonCIN	CIN vs NYMKodai Senga	P 50.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	50.0%Over prob · Palantir	64.5%no-vig	-0.62%	1.7804count	0.4996prob	0.9501proj	1.009context	FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
40	Jj BledayCIN	CIN vs NYMKodai Senga	P 53.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	53.4%Over prob · Palantir	63.0%no-vig	-0.39%	1.8605count	0.5338prob	0.9213proj	1.009context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
41	Lawrence ButlerATH	ATH vs PITMitch Keller	P 54.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	54.8%Over prob · Palantir	67.4%no-vig	-0.72%	1.9964count	0.5484prob	1.0244proj	0.937context	FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
42	Jake CronenworthSD	SD vs STLAndre Pallante	P 51.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	51.1%Over prob · Palantir	66.8%no-vig	-1.27%	1.7998count	0.5111prob	1.0095proj	1.01context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
43	Matt ChapmanSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 33.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	33.4%Over prob · Palantir	68.4%no-vig	-1.05%	2.1158count	0.5813prob	1.0534proj	0.958context	FanDuel 290 avg 1 books
44	Ben RiceNYY	NYY vs CWSDavis Martin	P 58.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	58.2%Over prob · Palantir	67.4%no-vig	-0.66%	2.2016count	0.5823prob	1.0241proj	1.084context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
45	Otto LopezMIA	MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo	P 42.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	42.7%Over prob · Palantir	64.3%no-vig	-0.31%	1.5077count	0.4271prob	0.9365proj	0.943context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
46	Leody TaverasBAL	BAL vs SEALogan Gilbert	P 24.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.6%Over prob · Palantir	65.1%no-vig	+3.56%	1.6655count	0.4817prob	0.9538proj	1.027context	DraftKings 290 avg 1 books
47	Jorge SolerLAA	LAA vs AZMerrill Kelly	P 53.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	53.6%Over prob · Palantir	64.3%no-vig	-0.97%	1.9414count	0.5358prob	0.9509proj	0.936context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
48	Jake MeyersHOU	HOU vs DETFramber Valdez	P 23.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.9%Over prob · Palantir	65.6%no-vig	+4.25%	1.6325count	0.4681prob	0.9649proj	1.037context	DraftKings 300 avg 1 books
49	Gavin SheetsSD	SD vs STLAndre Pallante	P 49.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	49.5%Over prob · Palantir	64.9%no-vig	-0.33%	1.7511count	0.4945prob	0.9526proj	1.01context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
50	Jordan WalkerSTL	STL vs SDMichael King	P 38.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	38.2%Over prob · Palantir	57.5%no-vig	-0.57%	1.3315count	0.3816prob	0.7848proj	0.955context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
51	Brett BatyNYM	NYM vs CINBrady Singer	P 47.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	47.3%Over prob · Palantir	65.1%no-vig	-0.71%	1.7436count	0.4729prob	0.9549proj	1.043context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
52	Matt McLainCIN	CIN vs NYMKodai Senga	P 44.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	44.7%Over prob · Palantir	61.7%no-vig	-0.71%	1.5742count	0.447prob	0.8771proj	1.009context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
53	Connor NorbyMIA	MIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo	P 45.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	45.1%Over prob · Palantir	62.3%no-vig	-0.66%	1.5968count	0.451prob	0.8884proj	0.943context	FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
54	Yoán MoncadaLAA	LAA vs AZMerrill Kelly	P 50.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	50.0%Over prob · Palantir	63.7%no-vig	-1.19%	1.7588count	0.5003prob	0.9219proj	0.936context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
55	Jo AdellLAA	LAA vs AZMerrill Kelly	P 53.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	53.3%Over prob · Palantir	62.1%no-vig	-1.26%	1.9442count	0.5329prob	0.8929proj	0.936context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
56	Luke RaleySEA	SEA vs BALBrandon Young	P 50.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	50.8%Over prob · Palantir	62.8%no-vig	-0.44%	1.8397count	0.5078prob	0.9004proj	1.012context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
57	Masyn WinnSTL	STL vs SDMichael King	P 38.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	38.6%Over prob · Palantir	60.7%no-vig	-0.49%	1.3604count	0.3864prob	0.8489proj	0.955context	FanDuel 190 avg 1 books
58	Dylan CrewsWSH	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha	P 37.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	37.5%Over prob · Palantir	54.3%no-vig	-0.49%	1.2987count	0.3754prob	0.723proj	0.943context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
59	Trent GrishamNYY	NYY vs CWSDavis Martin	P 48.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.9%Over prob · Palantir	61.4%no-vig	-1.14%	1.8613count	0.4886prob	0.8772proj	1.084context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
60	Francisco AlvarezNYM	NYM vs CINBrady Singer	P 25.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	25.9%Over prob · Palantir	61.4%no-vig	-1.12%	1.7233count	0.4888prob	0.8542proj	1.043context	FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
61	Alex CallLAD	LAD vs TBDrew Rasmussen	P 35.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	35.3%Over prob · Palantir	53.8%no-vig	-1.08%	1.1776count	0.3528prob	0.6991proj	1.098context	FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
62	Casey SchmittSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 16.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	16.6%Over prob · Palantir	52.8%no-vig	-0.88%	1.2519count	0.3686prob	0.6831proj	0.958context	FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
63	Jackson ChourioMIL	MIL vs CLESlade Cecconi	P 29.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	29.6%Over prob · Palantir	42.5%no-vig	-0.95%	0.9326count	0.2956prob	0.4883proj	1.057context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books