Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs LAD
Score 71.1 | Lineup K 6.84
|
6.39 | 6.66 | +0.27 | 85.5% | 74.4% | 61.4% | 48.1% | 35.7% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs MIA
Score 72.5 | Lineup K 6.12
|
5.92 | 6.10 | +0.18 | 81.3% | 68.5% | 54.3% | 40.6% | 28.7% |
Carlos Rodón
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs ATH
Score 63.4 | Lineup K 6.31
|
5.52 | 5.86 | +0.34 | 79.2% | 65.6% | 51.0% | 37.3% | 25.8% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs COL
Score 69.9 | Lineup K 6.53
|
5.31 | 5.83 | +0.52 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs KC
Score 52.6 | Lineup K 5.01
|
6.15 | 5.76 | -0.39 | 78.2% | 64.3% | 49.6% | 35.9% | 24.6% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs AZ
Score 52.6 | Lineup K 4.78
|
5.63 | 5.40 | -0.23 | 74.5% | 59.5% | 44.3% | 31.0% | 20.4% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs PIT
Score 54.2 | Lineup K 5.46
|
5.01 | 5.18 | +0.17 | 71.9% | 56.3% | 41.0% | 28.0% | 17.9% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs STL
Score 55.5 | Lineup K 5.18
|
4.97 | 5.07 | +0.10 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CIN
Score 57.1 | Lineup K 6.02
|
4.44 | 5.00 | +0.56 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Luis Severino
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs NYY
Score 34.6 | Lineup K 5.18
|
4.84 | 4.90 | +0.06 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TOR
Score 40.7 | Lineup K 4.82
|
4.72 | 4.72 | +0.00 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Max Meyer
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs NYM
Score 32.6 | Lineup K 5.01
|
4.58 | 4.66 | +0.08 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SEA
Score 42.4 | Lineup K 5.60
|
3.85 | 4.33 | +0.48 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs LAA
Score 45.8 | Lineup K 5.12
|
3.85 | 4.28 | +0.43 | 59.2% | 41.9% | 27.2% | 16.4% | 9.3% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 42.0 | Lineup K 4.46
|
4.13 | 4.22 | +0.09 | 58.2% | 40.8% | 26.3% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs BOS
Score 32.5 | Lineup K 4.44
|
4.18 | 4.21 | +0.03 | 58.1% | 40.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
Lucas Giolito
Probable | projected
|
SD vs WSH
Score 40.6 | Lineup K 4.68
|
3.88 | 4.13 | +0.25 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs DET
Score 31.4 | Lineup K 4.68
|
3.65 | 3.95 | +0.30 | 53.6% | 36.2% | 22.3% | 12.7% | 6.8% |
Stephen Kolek
Probable | projected
|
KC vs TEX
Score 26.7 | Lineup K 4.48
|
3.73 | 3.92 | +0.19 | 53.1% | 35.6% | 21.9% | 12.4% | 6.6% |
Chris Paddack
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs ATL
Score 21.8 | Lineup K 4.13
|
3.86 | 3.87 | +0.01 | 52.2% | 34.8% | 21.2% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CHC
Score 25.7 | Lineup K 4.22
|
3.27 | 3.53 | +0.26 | 45.9% | 28.8% | 16.5% | 8.7% | 4.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.