Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | confirmed
|
MIL vs STL
Score 74.7 | Lineup K 5.53
|
6.36 | 6.19 | -0.17 | 82.0% | 69.5% | 55.5% | 41.8% | 29.8% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs SD
Score 63.0 | Lineup K 5.75
|
5.93 | 5.93 | +0.00 | 79.8% | 66.4% | 52.0% | 38.3% | 26.6% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | confirmed
|
BAL vs TB
Score 65.7 | Lineup K 5.37
|
5.86 | 5.76 | -0.10 | 78.2% | 64.3% | 49.6% | 35.9% | 24.6% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs COL
Score 75.6 | Lineup K 6.08
|
5.07 | 5.53 | +0.46 | 75.9% | 61.3% | 46.3% | 32.8% | 21.9% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs WSH
Score 51.5 | Lineup K 5.02
|
5.28 | 5.20 | -0.08 | 72.2% | 56.6% | 41.3% | 28.2% | 18.1% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs ATH
Score 64.8 | Lineup K 6.33
|
4.56 | 5.17 | +0.61 | 71.8% | 56.2% | 40.9% | 27.8% | 17.8% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | confirmed
|
KC vs NYY
Score 37.9 | Lineup K 4.94
|
5.29 | 5.12 | -0.17 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Ben Brown
Probable | confirmed
|
CHC vs PIT
Score 57.0 | Lineup K 5.53
|
4.76 | 5.06 | +0.30 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs NYM
Score 48.3 | Lineup K 5.56
|
4.79 | 5.05 | +0.26 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | confirmed
|
MIN vs CWS
Score 61.0 | Lineup K 4.71
|
4.68 | 4.73 | +0.05 | 66.0% | 49.4% | 34.1% | 22.0% | 13.3% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SF
Score 53.8 | Lineup K 5.24
|
4.28 | 4.63 | +0.35 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Will Warren
Probable | confirmed
|
NYY vs KC
Score 36.8 | Lineup K 4.58
|
4.74 | 4.63 | -0.11 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Aaron Civale
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs SEA
Score 38.0 | Lineup K 5.09
|
4.35 | 4.56 | +0.21 | 63.6% | 46.6% | 31.5% | 19.8% | 11.7% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs AZ
Score 27.8 | Lineup K 3.85
|
4.64 | 4.29 | -0.35 | 59.4% | 42.0% | 27.4% | 16.5% | 9.3% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs HOU
Score 34.6 | Lineup K 4.43
|
4.22 | 4.24 | +0.02 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs CLE
Score 44.4 | Lineup K 4.10
|
3.89 | 3.95 | +0.06 | 53.6% | 36.2% | 22.3% | 12.7% | 6.8% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs PHI
Score 16.8 | Lineup K 3.59
|
3.78 | 3.61 | -0.17 | 47.4% | 30.2% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
Tanner Gordon
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAD
Score 18.9 | Lineup K 3.71
|
3.60 | 3.55 | -0.05 | 46.2% | 29.1% | 16.7% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | confirmed
|
STL vs MIL
Score 28.9 | Lineup K 3.81
|
3.45 | 3.52 | +0.07 | 45.6% | 28.6% | 16.3% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable | confirmed
|
PIT vs CHC
Score 17.8 | Lineup K 2.86
|
3.87 | 3.43 | -0.44 | 43.9% | 27.1% | 15.2% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs TOR
Score 26.1 | Lineup K 3.26
|
3.49 | 3.34 | -0.15 | 42.1% | 25.5% | 14.0% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.