Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs LAD
Score 56.9 | Lineup K 5.90
|
5.93 | 5.95 | +0.02 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 52.2% | 38.6% | 26.9% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CWS
Score 61.7 | Lineup K 5.94
|
4.57 | 5.15 | +0.58 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs AZ
Score 57.5 | Lineup K 4.99
|
5.09 | 5.09 | +0.00 | 70.8% | 55.0% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.9% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs NYY
Score 51.7 | Lineup K 6.13
|
4.52 | 5.07 | +0.55 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs WSH
Score 60.9 | Lineup K 5.36
|
4.70 | 4.97 | +0.27 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs CLE
Score 70.0 | Lineup K 5.79
|
4.30 | 4.94 | +0.64 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Ben Brown
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs STL
Score 50.4 | Lineup K 5.18
|
4.76 | 4.91 | +0.15 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs ATH
Score 42.6 | Lineup K 4.98
|
4.87 | 4.88 | +0.01 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs TEX
Score 41.6 | Lineup K 5.10
|
4.73 | 4.83 | +0.10 | 67.4% | 51.0% | 35.7% | 23.3% | 14.2% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs MIN
Score 51.5 | Lineup K 5.55
|
4.28 | 4.73 | +0.45 | 66.0% | 49.4% | 34.1% | 22.0% | 13.3% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs LAA
Score 62.4 | Lineup K 5.01
|
4.28 | 4.58 | +0.30 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs ATL
Score 38.0 | Lineup K 5.24
|
4.28 | 4.57 | +0.29 | 63.7% | 46.8% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs PIT
Score 52.7 | Lineup K 5.28
|
3.97 | 4.44 | +0.47 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Ryne Nelson
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SEA
Score 31.9 | Lineup K 4.59
|
4.07 | 4.19 | +0.12 | 57.8% | 40.3% | 25.9% | 15.4% | 8.5% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs KC
Score 33.6 | Lineup K 4.26
|
4.22 | 4.18 | -0.04 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 43.6 | Lineup K 4.57
|
3.80 | 4.05 | +0.25 | 55.4% | 37.9% | 23.8% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | projected
|
SF vs COL
Score 47.2 | Lineup K 5.31
|
3.42 | 3.82 | +0.40 | 51.3% | 33.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TOR
Score 21.9 | Lineup K 3.85
|
3.67 | 3.65 | -0.02 | 48.1% | 30.9% | 18.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CIN
Score 28.5 | Lineup K 4.80
|
3.10 | 3.41 | +0.31 | 43.5% | 26.7% | 14.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.